Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 prediction, odds, pick for UFC 323

UFC 323 has reached the Main Event of the evening as fans will be treated to a high-level rematch for the Bantamweight (135) Championship title. Current champion Merab Dvalishvili of Georgia will welcome Russia’s No. 3 Petr Yan back to the octagon following their first meeting in 2023. Check our UFC 323 odds series for the Dvalishvili-Yan 2 prediction and pick.

Merab Dvalishvili (21-4) is 14-2 during his UFC run since 2017, making his fourth-consecutive title defense of the Bantamweight strap. He most recently took down top challenger Cory Sandhagen with another dominant performance, allowing Petr Yan another crack at the belt he once held. Dvalishvili stands 5-foot-6 with a 68-inch reach.

Petr Yan (19-5) has gone 11-4 inside the UFC since 2018 while notably holding the title. He has notched three consecutive victories by unanimous decision up to this point and looks to be in peak form, so his second opportunity against Dvalishvili comes at the perfect time. Yan stands 5-foot-7 with a 67-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 323 Odds: Merab Dvalishvili-Petr Yan 2 Odds

Merab Dvalishvili: -410

Petr Yan: +320

Over 4.5 rounds: -395

Under 4.5 rounds: +280

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Why Merab Dvalishvili Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Cory Sandhagen – U DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

While Cory Sandhagen was heralded as one of the more dangerous, multi-faceted threats to challenge for the belt, Merab Dvalishvili once again made things look easy in suffocating his opponent. Dvalishvili landed a whopping 20 takedowns on 37 attempts with zero wrestling whatsoever from Sandhagen. More impressively, Dvalishvili out-struck his opponent 243-149 through three rounds, showing a dominance in the striking against one of the division’s best technicians.

At this rate, it’ll be nearly impossible for someone to figure out Dvalishvili, but Petr Yan notably offered solid resistance during their first encounter. During that fight, Merab attempted a UFC-record 49 takedowns, but only converted on 11 of them. During the striking exchanges, Yan was clearly able to catch him a number of times. However, it’s hardly ever enough to truly hurt Dvalishvili and get him waving off his pressure.

To secure this win, expect much of the same from Dvalishvili as there’s absolutely no reason for him to switch up his game plan or approach. He’s been extremely dominant in controlling opponents and with his improvements in the striking, he should be able to manage the distance against Petr Yan.

Why Petr Yan Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Marcus McGhee – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Petr Yan has looked sensational up to this point and his last three wins have been reminiscent of his days as the champion. Yan has been able to systematically break down opponents like Deiveson Figueiredo and Song Yadong with his striking and takedown defense. During those fights, he’s also been able to completely limit the damage done on him and has walked away rather unscathed.

Yan didn’t necessarily take a ton of damage from Dvalishvili during their first fight and instead sent the majority of his time defending takedowns. He may be in for much of the same in this fight and despite defending 38 takedowns the first time around, it still wasn’t enough to deter his opponent from relentlessly chasing them.

Petr Yan will have to get creative with his offense and offer some sort of knee or kick when Dvalishvili attempts the entries. Yan has terrific distance management and does a great job of slipping out of range from his opponent, so don’t be surprised if he tries to maintain such whenever these two are on the feet.

Final Merab Dvalishvili-Petr Yan 2 Prediction & Pick

This will be another exciting meeting between these two fighters and with Petr Yan dominantly winning his last three fights, we could see an improved version of him coming into this fight. He did all he could to defend the takedowns during their first meeting, so we’ll see if Dvalishvili has similar plans in this fight to constantly wrestle.

While Dvalishvili’s striking certainly has improved, Petr Yan is a master of timing and does a great job of using Dvalishvili’s forward momentum against him. It’s likely the reason Dvalishvili chose to attempt so many takedowns and I expect a similar game plan out of him in this fight.

The only was for Yan to win will be if he can spend the majority of this fight in striking range. Even then, Dvalishvili is extremely difficult to hurt and simple punches don’t do too much in deterring his forward pressure.

For our final prediction, we’ll roll with Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. There’s no reason to bet against him if he’s able to continue dominating opponents the way he has been the last 2 years.

Final Merab Dvalishvili-Petr Yan 2 Prediction & Pick: Merab Dvalishvili (-410); OVER 4.5 Rounds (-395)

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