Luis Gurule vs. Daniel Barez prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 117

The UFC is back in Las Vegas at The Apex as we’re back for another betting prediction and pick for this upcoming bout in the Flyweight (125) Division. Colorado’s Luis Gurule will take on Daniel Barez of Spain in a highly-competitive matchup early into the fight card. Check our UFC odds series for the Gurule-Barez prediction and pick.

Luis Gurule (10-3) is still searching for his first UFC win with an 0-3 record since 2025. He dropped his last bout to Alden Coria via unanimous decision, making for his second-straight loss by decision as he hopes to bounce back the near-even betting favorite here. Gurule stands 5-foot-5 with a 64-inch reach.

Daniel Barez (17-7) has gone 1-2 inside the UFC since 2023. Notching his first promotional win over Victor Altamirano, he fell to submission against Andre Lima his last time out and will be hoping to get back in the win column with a victory in this one. Barez stands 5-foot-6 with a 66-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 117 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 117 Odds: Luis Gurule-Daniel Barez Odds

Luis Gurule: -142

Daniel Barez: +120

Over 2.5 rounds: -195

Under 2.5 rounds: +150

Why Luis Gurule Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Alden Coria – U DEC
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Luis Gurule is still trying to find his footing in the UFC as he was stopped via strikes by Ode Osbourne during his debut and fell to unanimous decision during his last two fights. While he’s faced strong competition, he hasn’t been able to fully prove that he belongs on the roster and his full range of skills has yet to be displayed. Coming into this bout as the slight favorite against a manageable opponent could be his perfect opportunity to notch that elusive first win.

Gurule is a very aggressive striker and has no issues eating a few punches when closing the distance and looking to get his own shots off. He blitzes opponents with big combinations and when he’s able to land, can typically dish out some serious punishment with his power. However, he’ll still be needing to limit his damage as he’s absorbing 4.74 strikes per minute despite his 59% defensive rate.

Gurule is at his most dangerous when he’s able to hurt his opponent with the striking and follow-up with his tremendous top pressure. He likes to find closed guard and stack his opponents while landing big punches and elbows from over top, so expect him to be in a great position to finish this fight if he’s able to drop Barez and work on the ground. His opponent still has six submission wins to his name, so Gurule will have to be cautious during his transitions on the ground.

Why Daniel Barez Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Andre Lima – SUB (rear naked choke, R3)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 6 SUB

Daniel Barez put together one of his more lopsided showings his last time out, falling behind on the total striking numbers 34-161 in a fight where he simply couldn’t gain any control. Barez is very technically sound and fights very fundamentally, but his ability to close the distance and control striking range could use some work against strikers more advanced than he is. During this fight, Barez will have to forget about his last performance and come out much more aggressive with his offense this time around.

Barez does a great job of mixing in his takedowns and threatening with the level change, which could find him success throughout this fight as the better grappler. His 80% takedown defense opposite of Gurule’s 58% takedown defense could suggest that Barez will be in position to dictate where this fight takes place. His opponent has never been submitted, however, so finding success on the feet could be his initial path to success in this one.

Barez will come in the slightly taller fighter with the longer reach, but that shouldn’t give him enough room to become complacent in standing and striking against Gurule. Barez has been known to get off to slow starts and if he does so against the high pace of Gurule, he could fall behind in this fight by the later rounds.

Final Luis Gurule-Daniel Barez Prediction & Pick

This should be a fun fight given how close both sides match up on the betting lines. Luis Gurule is hungry for his first UFC and could have his back against the wall in this one. Daniel Barez, on the other hand, comes in as the bigger, longer fighter and will be looking to dictate the pace both offensively and defensively with his wrestling.

However, I think Luis Gurule is much more active and in a fight where neither side is likely to knock the other out, this fight should head towards a decision determined by whichever fighter was more active. For our final prediction, we’ll roll with Luis Gurule to find his first win in the UFC.

Final Luis Gurule-Daniel Barez Prediction & Pick: Luis Gurule (-142); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-195)

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