Knicks’ Game 4 masterpiece vs. Hawks gives them a very good chance of going up 3-2

The New York Knicks won Game 4 against the Atlanta Hawks in convincing fashion.  They got a great game from Karl-Anthony Towns, who played flawlessly. Jalen Brunson played a smart game, not forcing the issue. And everyone else did essentially what you’d expect them to do. Now, the Knicks look to return to New York with a 2-2 series, and the momentum might be back in their court.

Knicks’ near-perfect Game 4 set the stage for success

New York let two incredibly winnable games slip through their fingers in Games 2 and 3. They lost by one point in both games. And they had mental breakdowns in the final possessions of each game.

However, the Knicks won Games 1 and 4 convincingly by 11 and 16 points, respectively. And Game 4 was easily their best game of the series so far. Towns put up a brilliant triple-double, Brunson played within himself, OG Anunoby scored 22 points on nine-for-16 shooting. And Miles McBride, Josh Hart, Jose Alvarado, and Mikal Bridges all contributed in their own ways, as well. Granted, Mitchell Robinson could have played more. But otherwise, the Knicks played a near-perfect game.

And with a Game 4 win, the Knicks changed the narrative of the series.

History suggests Knicks are in driver’s seat 

With the series shifting back to New York for Game 5, the Knicks should feel pretty confident. Sure, both of the games that New York lost were incredibly winnable. But the simple fact that the Knicks took back home-court advantage means a lot. Looking ahead, the series is essentially just a best-of-three, and the Knicks have home court advantage with Game 5 and Game 7 (if needed) to be played in Madison Square Garden.

What’s more, higher-seeded teams have won Game 5 more than 75% of the time in NBA history when returning home with a 2-2 series. And the Knicks are obviously the higher seed in this matchup.

Furthermore, neither the Knicks nor the Hawks have done much to convince people of a different outcome than what history implies. The Knicks were 22-19 at home in the regular season, and the Hawks were 22-19 on the road. Granted, that is an above-average road record for Atlanta and a less-than-stellar home record for New York. But neither team appears unique enough to suggest they’ll buck that trend.

Additionally, the Knicks have significant playoff experience—and there’s actual playoff experience with this group playing together. Conversely, the Hawks are still incredibly unfamiliar with each other. Hawks guard CJ McCollum played only 41 games on the Hawks. And Jonathan Kuminga played only 16 with Atlanta. That’s two important pieces that are relatively new to the team.

Game 5 is incredibly important in a 2-2 series. And looking ahead, seeds don’t matter, at least not as much as the winner of Game 5. The winner of Game 5 in 2-2 series went on to win the series approximately 83% of the time (in seven-game series).

And that makes a lot of sense for the Knicks vs. Hawks. It doesn’t appear as if either team is going to win two consecutive games against the other. That means that Game 5 holds the key to advancing to the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

So, while Game 5 isn’t necessarily “win-or-go-home”, it’s pretty close to it. And while the Hawks are a relatively young team with little to lose, the Knicks have a lot riding on this postseason. An early exit would almost certainly mark the end of this team as currently constructed. We’ll know a lot more about the Knicks’ future come Tuesday night.

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