Billy Ray Goff vs. Ty Miller prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 120

UFC Vegas 120: Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld continues on the main card with a fight between Billy Ray Goff and Ty Miller in the welterweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 120 odds series for our Goff-Miller prediction and pick.

Billy Ray Goff (9-4) enters on a two-fight skid, most recently getting caught in a first-round guillotine choke submission loss to Ramiz Brahimaj in May 2025 after also dropping a unanimous decision to Trey Waters in May 2024. Goff will look to reverse that slide as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ty Miller.

Ty Miller (7-0, 1 NC) remains unbeaten as a pro, capping his perfect run with a first-round TKO of Adam Fugitt in his UFC debut in January 2026, dropping Fugitt with a knee before finishing with punches. That electric showing came after a unanimous decision win over Jimmy Drago on DWCS in August 2025, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Billy Ray Goff.

UFC Vegas 120 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 120 Odds: Billy Ray Goff-Ty Miller Odds

Billy Ray Goff: +300

Ty Miller: -380

Over 2.5 rounds: +100

Under 2.5 rounds: -130

Why Billy Ray Goff Will Win

Billy Ray Goff brings far more experience at the highest level into this welterweight bout, and that could be the difference against an unproven Miller. Goff has fought in the UFC since 2023, including a first-round TKO win in his promotional debut, giving him a feel for Octagon pressure that Miller has only experienced once.

Miller, despite his perfect 7-0 record, has faced largely lesser competition on the regional circuit and DWCS before his lone UFC appearance. Stepping up against a durable veteran like Goff represents a significant class jump, and untested prospects often struggle when adversity hits for the first time.

Goff’s own power is a real weapon, with seven of his nine career wins coming by knockout and four by first-round finish. If Miller shows any of the vulnerabilities common to less experienced fighters, Goff has the finishing instincts to capitalize and snap his unbeaten streak in dramatic fashion.

Coming off back-to-back losses, Goff also enters with desperation and urgency on his side, often producing a fighter’s most focused performance. That extra motivation, combined with his superior UFC experience and power, gives Goff a real path to spoiling Miller’s perfect record this weekend.

Why Ty Miller Will Win

Ty “Thriller” Miller enters this welterweight bout with the confidence of a perfect professional record, and that momentum could prove decisive against Goff. Miller’s 7-0 mark, capped by a first-round TKO of Adam Fugitt in his UFC debut, shows he can perform under the brightest lights without hesitation.

Billy Ray Goff, by contrast, is riding a two-fight skid that includes a first-round submission loss to Ramiz Brahimaj. Getting finished that quickly against a durable veteran raises real concerns about his ability to survive Miller’s own finishing instincts inside the Octagon.

Miller’s power is also a legitimate weapon, with three of his seven career wins coming by knockout, including the emphatic knee-and-punches finish that ended his UFC debut. If Goff shows any of the defensive lapses that led to his recent skid, Miller has the tools to capitalize early and add another finish to his unbeaten resume.

Confidence and momentum matter heavily in combat sports, and Miller enters unbeaten and unbothered while Goff fights from a position of desperation after consecutive losses. That psychological edge, paired with Miller’s superior recent form and finishing ability, should be enough to keep his perfect record intact this weekend.

Final Billy Ray Goff-Ty Miller Prediction & Pick

This welterweight bout pits an unbeaten prospect against a battle-tested veteran looking to snap a two-fight skid. Miller (7-0, 1 NC) enters riding the momentum of a highlight-reel TKO debut, while Goff (9-4) looks to bounce back after getting finished by Ramiz Brahimaj in his last outing.

The key question is whether Miller’s power and confidence can overcome Goff’s superior UFC experience and own finishing ability. Goff has ended seven of his nine career wins by knockout, giving him a real chance to test Miller’s chin early and expose any inexperience.

Still, Miller’s perfect record and clean first-round finish in his debut suggest a fighter who thrives under pressure rather than shrinking from it. If he can avoid Goff’s power shots early, his youth and aggression should start to take over as the fight progresses.

Expect a competitive, high-action striking battle, with Miller’s power and momentum ultimately proving the difference in a second-round TKO win.

Final Billy Ray Goff-Ty Miller Prediction & Pick: Ty Miller (-380); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-130)

The post Billy Ray Goff vs. Ty Miller prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 120 appeared first on ClutchPoints.