Bia Mesquita vs. Melissa Mullins prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 119

UFC Vegas 119: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi continues on the prelims with a fight between Bia Mesquita and Melissa Mullins in the women’s bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Mesquita-Mullins prediction and pick.

Bia Mesquita (7-0) is a perfect and undefeated in MMA, most recently submitting Montserrat Rendon via first-round rear-naked choke at UFC Vegas 114 in March 2026, after tapping out Irina Alekseeva in round two at UFC Rio last October. The Brazilian BJJ legend has five submission wins and has looked absolutely flawless as she comes into her fight this weekend against Melissa Mullins.

Melissa Mullins (7-2) is 2-2 inside the UFC, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Darya Zheleznyakova in June 2025, after stopping Klaudia Sygula via second-round TKO in November 2024. The English bantamweight has been out of action for nearly a year as she comes into her fight this weekend against Bia Mesquita.

UFC Vegas 119 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 119 Odds: Bia Mesquita-Melissa Mullins Odds

Bia Mesquita: -550

Melissa Mullins: +410

Over 1.5 rounds: -154

Under 1.5 rounds: +120

Why Bia Mesquita Will Win

Bia Mesquita is one of the most decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu competitors ever to step inside an MMA cage, and her 7-0 undefeated record with five submission wins speaks for itself. Every single time this fight hits the mat, Mesquita becomes the most dangerous person in the building.

Mullins holds zero submission wins across her entire professional career, meaning her ground defense is completely unproven against elite-level BJJ. Mesquita doesn’t just threaten submissions, she finishes them, and she will immediately expose that vulnerability the moment she gets a hold of Mullins.

Mesquita has also shown she doesn’t need the ground game to win, landing a TKO finish and demonstrating improving striking in her recent UFC appearances. That versatility makes her nearly impossible to game plan against at this level.

Mullins is coming off a unanimous decision loss and has been out of the Octagon for nearly a year, raising legitimate questions about her timing and sharpness heading into fight week. Ring rust against a fighter as sharp and active as Mesquita is a recipe for disaster.

With Mesquita training out of American Top Team and peaking at 35 years old, her experience and technical mastery make her the clear favorite to submit Mullins inside two rounds.

Why Melissa Mullins Will Win

Melissa Mullins holds a significant physical edge over Mesquita, standing 5-foot-7 with a 68-inch reach compared to Mesquita’s 5-foot-4 frame, and that size advantage at bantamweight is not something that can be coached away. If Mullins can use her length to keep the fight standing and control distance, she neutralizes Mesquita’s entire game plan before it even starts.

Mullins has four TKO wins on her record and carries genuine knockout power for the division, meaning one clean punch can change everything regardless of Mesquita’s submission credentials. Mesquita has only been tested at the UFC level twice, and Mullins’ physical output and forward pressure could present problems she simply hasn’t faced before.

Mullins also boasts a 50% striking accuracy rate inside the Octagon, showing she’s not just throwing wild shots but landing with real precision. If she can stuff takedowns early and make Mesquita uncomfortable on the feet, the confidence advantage shifts quickly.

Mesquita’s path to victory runs almost exclusively through the grappling — if Mullins can keep the fight upright and use her reach to pepper Mesquita from the outside, her striking arsenal becomes the deciding factor.

With a phenomenal fight camp reported heading into this week and fighting with nothing to lose as the underdog, a motivated and physically imposing Mullins has a very real path to a stunning upset.

Final Bia Mesquita-Melissa Mullins Prediction & Pick

This fight has all the makings of a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup, with Mullins needing to keep the fight standing at all costs while Mesquita hunts relentlessly for a takedown or clinch entry.

Mullins’ size and reach give her a real chance to make Mesquita uncomfortable early, and if she lands one of those TKO-finishing shots, this fight is over in an instant. However, Mesquita has shown the ability to close distance quickly, and the moment she gets her hands on Mullins, the submission clock starts ticking.

The near-year of inactivity for Mullins is a real concern — timing and rhythm are everything in MMA, and Mesquita has been sharp and active through two dominant UFC performances. The momentum and sharpness gap between these two fighters is significant.

Mesquita’s zero losses, five submission wins, and elite BJJ pedigree are simply too much for a fighter with no submission wins on her record to solve in three rounds.

Final Bia Mesquita-Melissa Mullins Prediction & Pick: Bia Mesquita (-550), Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)

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