Ben Johnson called Bears the ‘No. 1 regression candidate’ – ESPN reveals why he’s right

Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson expressed his frustration after joint practice sessions with the Cincinnati Bengals, pointing out three procedural errors during the first seven snaps. While he praised his defense for competing against high-level opponents, Johnson noted that starting slowly cost the team valuable opportunities. He views the upcoming road schedule as essential for addressing these mistakes before the regular season begins.

This sense of urgency is reflected in Johnson’s candid public assessment that Chicago is the NFL’s top candidate for regression heading into 2026. A detailed analysis by ESPN supports Johnson’s concerns, indicating that his projection is statistically justified. After an 11-6 season in 2025, which included a modest +26 point differential and a 7-4 record in one-score games, advanced metrics suggest the Bears benefited from an unsustainable level of luck.

They achieved a remarkable +22 turnover differential, having forced 33 turnovers while only committing 11, the fewest in the league. Historical data shows that 20 of the last 21 teams that posted a +20 turnover margin since 1990 experienced a decline in wins the following year, with their turnover margins dropping by an average of 19 takeaways. Additionally, the Bears recovered 66.7% of all fumbles during their games, a rate that no team in modern NFL history has maintained in consecutive seasons.

Adding to these statistical concerns, the Bears faced significant defensive issues last season. They ranked 27th in points allowed per drive on non-turnover possessions and 29th in pressure rate. Despite having young offensive talent around quarterback Caleb Williams, issues with execution were evident during a 27-9 preseason loss to Cincinnati. In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, Johnson expressed deep disappointment with the team’s 11 penalties and lackluster performance, emphasizing that losing by multiple scores is unacceptable, regardless of the game’s exhibition status.

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