For opening night, at least, the San Antonio Spurs have answered the single biggest starting lineup question of the 2026-27 season. Dylan Harper, the No. 2 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft and the second-best player in San Antonio's NBA Finals loss to the New York Knicks, will officially join the starting five alongside Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell... and De'Aaron Fox, the expensive veteran whose injured ankle and ensuing struggles loomed large over that Finals defeat.
San Antonio barely used the three-guard lineup last season, and for good reason. It was outscored significantly in both 54-possession regular-season and 83-possession postseason samples last year. The lineup outscored the Phoenix Suns by 10 points in 25 possessions in a recent preseason victory, but the Spurs shot just 2 of 9 on 3s when all three guards played together in that game.
That is the primary concern here. Harper, Fox and Castle are all strong drivers with questionable 3-point shots. Such players typically do best when surrounded by other shooters. The Spurs can get away with having two of them on the floor at once because their center, Victor Wembanyama, is game-breaking in dozens of ways, including his ability to space the floor. San Antonio took off last season when it upgraded its shooting by inserting Julian Champagnie into the starting lineup.
With all three guards playing together, though, the delicate balance between shooting and ball-handling has tilted too far toward the latter. Ball-handling doesn't have nearly the amplifying effect that shooting does, and opponents will inevitably cheat off of the two guards without the ball in their hands whenever one of them is trying to create shots with it. The trio is so talented, and comes with the inherent advantage of playing with Wembanyama, that the Spurs will almost certainly win most of the games it plays with this starting lineup.
But it's certainly suboptimal. We all know where this is probably heading. Harper was simply too good to keep coming off of the bench, and Castle is too good to ever move there. Eventually, the best version of the Spurs likely has Fox, the oldest and most expensive of the three guards, coming off of the bench as Harper did a season ago. San Antonio's starters with Champagnie playing alongside two of the guards outscored opponents by 17.6 points per 100 possessions a season ago. The formula of two guards, two shooters and Wembanyama is this team's endgame.
Yet even if that's the case, the Spurs are slow-playing this. In the long run, that's probably the sensible approach. Benching a reigning All-Star on a max contract is fraught. Fox very intentionally steered himself to San Antonio through a direct trade request, presumably expecting to be the starting point guard on a dynasty. Players of his stature and age are rarely eager to come off of the bench. Asking him to do so on opening night based off of a poor Finals series in which he was injured risks alienating a key player and, cynically, destroying what little trade value he might have left.
Even if the Spurs do plan to bench Fox down the line, easing him into it seems like the safest approach. He still has a chance to prove that this three-guard lineup can work, and if it does, well, maybe there's less of a problem here than we're assuming. If it proves uncomfortable or if the lineup data suggests it's flopping, the Spurs at least have empirical data supporting a change. They can at least tell Fox that they tried.
They'd hardly be the first team to try this approach to benching a star. Russell Westbrook went through it with both Los Angeles teams, for instance. The Lakers benched him after an 0-3 start in the 2022-23 season. The Clippers let him and James Harden start five games together a year later, lost all five, and then went 27-7 in their next 34 after benching him. Sometimes, you have to sacrifice a few games for the greater good. Players of this caliber tend to expect a certain degree of respect that the attempt at least affords.
The notion of sacrificing games is going to be a bitter pill to swallow in this case, specifically, because San Antonio's competition for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference practically never does so. The Oklahoma City Thunder churn out 60-win seasons in their sleep, and home-court advantage in the practically preordained Western Conference Finals between them, despite San Antonio's road victory a year ago, is meaningful. But that same road victory showed the Spurs that what matters isn't October or November. It's May and June.
If the Spurs have to take the long road to optimized lineups and locker room harmony, so be it. For now, they're giving Harper the starting job he so clearly deserves and tabling the Fox end of the equation until the issue is forced.
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