Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van prediction, odds, pick for UFC 323

UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 continues on the main card with the co-main event between Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van for the UFC Flyweight Championship on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Pantoja-Van prediction and pick.

Alexandre Pantoja (28-5) enters UFC 323 riding a dominant decision win over Kai Kara-France in July before starching Brandon Moreno with first-round strikes at UFC 301. The Brazilian flyweight champion showcases elite striking, cardio, and high-volume output as he comes into his fight this weekend against Joshua Van.​

Joshua “The Fearless” Van (15-2) surges into UFC 323 on a six-fight UFC streak, decisioning Brandon Royval after stopping Bruno Silva late in the third round. The Burmese-American prospect’s pace, durability, and late-finishing power have fueled his rapid rise as he comes into his fight this weekend against Alexandre Pantoja.

Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 323 odds: Alexandre Pantoja-Joshua Van odds

Alexandre Pantoja: -238

Joshua Van: +195

Over 2.5 rounds: -238

Under 2.5 rounds: +180

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Why Alexandre Pantoja will win

• Last Fight: (W) Kai Kara-France – SUB R3
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 20 (8 KO/TKO/12 SUB)

Alexandre Pantoja’s blend of suffocating grappling and mean, attritional striking makes him a nightmare matchup for Joshua Van at UFC 323. The champion’s trademark pace, pressure, and willingness to engage in wild exchanges have already broken elite flyweights with more seasoning and defensive layers than Van currently has.​

On the mat, Pantoja’s back-taking, crab rides, and transitions from scrambles are on another level from anything Van has faced. If he can convert Van’s forward pressure and pocket exchanges into clinches and level changes, he is likely to secure the back, ride long stretches of control, and threaten with chokes all night.​

Standing, Van throws more volume, but Pantoja’s shots are heavier, and his willingness to bite down and trade in the pocket is proven over five-round wars. Van’s defense remains porous, and against a champion who thrives in chaos, that means prolonged brawls favor Pantoja’s power and experience, not the younger challenger’s pace.​​

Given Pantoja’s five-round cardio, championship composure, and massive grappling edge, the matchup leans his way strongly. Expect Van to have fiery moments early, but Pantoja’s pressure and back control should accumulate, leading to a late submission or dominant decision win in his latest title defense on Saturday night.​​

Why Joshua Van will win

• Last Fight: (W) Brandon Royval – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 9 (7 KO/TKO/2 SUB)

Joshua Van’s absurd pace and youth give him a very real path to dethroning Pantoja at UFC 323. He lands nearly nine significant strikes per minute, the highest rate in the UFC, with 80%+ takedown defense that lets him keep fights standing and force opponents into overwhelming volume wars.​

Stylistically, Van is a nightmare for a champion who has absorbed plenty of damage in recent five-round battles. If he jabs, rips the body, and maintains his usual second- and third-round surge, he can exploit Pantoja’s tendency to fade and turn prolonged exchanges into a cardio test the younger fighter is better equipped to pass.​​

Van’s boxing fundamentals and combination punching also help him win the “in-between” moments that judges love. While Pantoja hunts big moments and back-takes, Van’s constant jabs, counters, and clinch flurries can steadily rack up numbers and visibly mark up the champion over 25 minutes.​​

Defensively, his improved scrambling and urgency to stand quickly should limit Pantoja’s control time, even when takedowns land. In a fight where pace and attrition matter, Van’s refusal to slow down, plus his legitimate knockout power for flyweight, make him a live underdog to out-volume or even hurt Pantoja en route to a late finish or razor-close decision on Saturday night.​

Final Alexandre Pantoja-Joshua Van prediction & pick

This is a massive step up in competition for Van, and oddsmakers have priced it accordingly with Pantoja as a significant favorite. While Van’s pace and striking numbers are elite, Pantoja’s experience, durability, and, crucially, his suffocating grappling make him the dominant champion he is today.​

Early, Van will have moments of success with his boxing and body work, especially if he can keep Pantoja at range. However, the champion’s willingness to eat shots to close distance and force clinch exchanges is the X-factor. Once he gets his hands on Van, Pantoja’s ability to transition to the back and threaten submissions is levels above anything the challenger has faced.​

Van has been taken down by lesser grapplers and, while resilient, relies more on scrambling than technical takedown defense. Against Pantoja, giving up your back or getting stuck in bottom half-guard usually means losing the round or the fight. Over 25 minutes, Pantoja’s relentless pressure should wear Van down, leading to a submission win in the middle rounds as the young challenger’s defense finally cracks under the champion’s elite grappling attack.​

Final Alexandre Pantoja-Joshua Van Prediction & Pick: Alexandre Pantoja (-238), Over 2.5 Rounds (-238)

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