6 WNBA teams that can actually win the championship, ranked

The WNBA only has a handful of games left in the regular season, but the league is about to take a 2.5 week break for the FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup before the playoffs start on September 27. We already know all eight teams who will be in the playoffs, but seeding is still very much up for grabs at every spot in the playoff bracket outside of the Minnesota Lynx’s No. 1 seed.

The championship race feels wide open this year. The Las Vegas Aces have won three of the last four championships led by the league’s best player in A’Ja Wilson, but their depth feels shakier than ever this season. The Lynx have ridiculous top-end star-power with Olivia Miles and Napheesa Collier, but they are a bit undersized up front and their bench is a question mark. The Indiana Fever have a historically good offense, but the defense struggles to get stops. That’s just the start of it.

It’s hard to imagine the Dallas Wings or Washington Mystics can win it all, but the other six playoff teams will have a chance. Let’s rank the WNBA championship pictures for the teams with the ability to be the last one standing.

6. Atlanta Dream

The Dream feel like the toughest team to pin down entering the playoffs even if their strengths and weaknesses are easy to see. This is the best team in the league at generating extra possessions, led by the brilliant rebounding of Angel Reese. Reese is having the best year of her career in her third season, and Atlanta’s three-point happy shot profile works perfectly with her signature skill on the offensive glass. Sometimes those long shots fall for Atlanta. When they don’t, Reese has a nearly 20% chance to pull down the board and give her team another look. The weakness in Reese’s game is also the weakness in Atlanta’s game. Reese ranks in the 99th percentile of shots at the rim, but only the 11th percentile of rim finishing. The Dream as a team are -3.2 percentage points worse than the average shooting team in the WNBA this year. Atlanta ranks No. 10 in both true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage, but all those extra possessions mean they’re still the No. 5 team in offensive efficiency.

The Dream are also No. 4 in defensive efficiency, and this is where they really have to shine to make a deep playoff run. Atlanta forces a ton of steals, and is by far the best team in the league at generating takeaways. Their +3.5 dTOV score laps No. 2 Minnesota at +2.1. Rhyne Howard has become an elite two-way wing who chucks three-pointers and gets into the passing lanes defensively to generate fastbreaks. The halfcourt offense is the one thing holding this team back, but it could look better once big Brionna Jones returns to the lineup from a leg injury. I think the Dream can absolutely win a series or two, but I have a hard time believing they can win the championship with their offense.

5. New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart is still an S-tier WNBA superstar at age-31, and she proved she could power the Liberty to a championship on the way to their 2024 title. Stewie’s co-stars Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones feel like they’ve both fallen off a tad this year. Sabrina Ionescu is having her most efficient scoring season since 2023, but her overall production has dipped a bit as she’s battled a bad back. Jones is still an excellent offensive big with real three-point range, but she isn’t quite as stout defensively as she once was. The big three are going to have to carry the Libs across the finish line this year because the depth has been shaky from the jump, and looks even worse with the loss of Satou Sabally to a lingering concussion that has kept her out for two months and counting.

The bench recently got a big boost with the return of forward Leonie Fiebich from injury, and she’s an impactful two-way forward with shooting ability at her best. It has felt like the Liberty are one piece away all year in the front court, and getting Fiebich back makes them a lot more dangerous. If Sabally can return — and the World Cup break gives her a better chance to do it — New York could fortify the rotation just enough to allow Stewie to carry them over the finish line. I’m not writing off the Libs with one of the best players on the planet, but this just hasn’t felt like the team we saw two years ago all season. No one should be surprised if New York goes on a run through the bracket, but no one should really be expecting it, either.

4. Indiana Fever

The Fever have a historically good offense, and a pretty bad defense. Indiana’s 115.6 offensive rating is the best in league history right now by more than two points per 100 possessions over the next closest team. Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell is the WNBA’s best backcourt, and they complement each other perfectly on offense. Clark’s deep pull-up shooting is unmatched in the league, and her playmaking is as good as anyone’s. She can definitely struggle with her turnovers, and she’ll need to be careful not to give away too many possessions come playoff time. Mitchell is the definition of a walking bucket. Her three-level takeover scoring ability is a thing of beauty to watch, and the Fever are never out of a game as long as she can get hot. Add in Aliyah Boston’s interior scoring, and Indiana has everything it needs to out-score opponents throughout a playoff run.

The defense feels like a real problem, though. Indiana is the second-worst team in the league at forcing turnovers. Teams have been making shots over them all year, in part because Clark and Mitchell don’t provide much defensive resistance on the perimeter. Their defensive rebounding has been awesome all year, and that would seriously be tested in a potential first-round matchup against the Dream which would happen if the season ended today. It feels like the Fever are missing a roaming, defensive-minded four who can cause some havoc in a free safety role defensively, but they don’t have a player like that on the roster. Their only path through the bracket is out-scoring everyone, but there’s a real chance that could happen. I think the Fever have a shot at winning it all, and I nearly put them third in this ranking. The defense just holds them back a little.

3. Golden State Valkyries

How good is the Valkyries’ defense? Consider that Minnesota superstar rookie Olivia Miles has only been held under 10 points twice all season, and both times were against Golden State. Head coach Natalie Nakase has built a defense that does everything well by walling off the paint, contesting shooters, forcing turnovers, and doing enough on the glass to avoid giving up a back-breaking amount of extra possessions. Opposing perimeter scorers won’t have fun dealing with Gabby Williams and Veronica Burton, who can both lock down at the point of attack while also being high-IQ help defenders. The front court can be a bit of a problem area for Golden State with starting big Iliana Rupert out for the year due to pregnancy. Kiah Stokes needs to hold up inside for this team to go on a long playoff run.

The offense feels like it could be an issue for the Valkyries when the game slows down in the playoffs. Golden State ranks a middling No. 7 in offensive efficiency this year, and that’s actually an achievement given their poor shooting. Golden State is No. 13 in the league in true shooting percentage. They chuck the most threes in the league — 30.7 per game –and chase the offensive rebound when they don’t hit, but in the playoffs you usually need a guard who can break down the defense off the dribble. Williams and Burton have done an excellent job moonlighting as creators, but neither is an ideal option for engineering efficient halfcourt offense. I thought the Valks needed a Kelsey Plum trade at the deadline, but they understandably didn’t want to break up their rotation to make it work. Can Golden State score enough to win it all? Is an elite defense truly impenetrable when it doesn’t have an ace rim protector? The Valkyries are well coached and tough as hell. They’re going to have to drag teams through the mud to win it all.

2. Las Vegas Aces

A’Ja Wilson is likely the WNBA MVP again, and at this point she has a pretty convincing argument as the GOAT of women’s basketball. Wilson’s four MVPs are already the most in league history, and she should be set to win No. 5. Value Plus Minus is an advanced stat by Databallr that estimates a player’s impact on scoring margin. Well, Wilson’s +7.2 leads the league by a comical amount with Miles coming in at No. 2 at +4.9. Wilson has an elite co-star in Jackie Young, who is one of the best all-around guards in the W. Young’s three-point shot has been a weapon for years, but she’s also an excellent playmaker who can suppress turnovers pretty well. Add in Chelsea Gray, who is still a brilliant passer and capable shooter at age-33, and the Aces still look like the Aces on their best nights.

The Aces just aren’t very deep, and it’s hard to make it through the playoff battlefield without depth. Chennedy Carter still grades out as their fourth most impactful player in most metrics, and she was cut on July 7. Jewell Loyd isn’t the same offensive force she was at her peak, and at this point she’s taking 71% of her field goal attempts from three, but is only making 31% of them. Mai Yamamoto has given the team a little playmaking spark lately. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus can still be an innings eater inside in small doses, and Stephanie Talbot can add some front court playmaking. The Aces’ bench just doesn’t have the physicality or the explosiveness teams ideally want, and at this point they better pray NaLyssa Smith’s recent injury isn’t serious. I could see the Aces losing in the first round, but I want to give them the benefit of the doubt with Wilson and Young leading the way. This team feels like it has the widest range of outcomes of anyone in the playoffs, but it’s hard to discount having the best player in the world and tons of championship experience.

1. Minnesota Lynx

The Lynx can thank the Chicago Sky for the draft pick that turned into Olivia Miles, because there’s no telling where Minnesota would be without the rookie superstar this season. The Lynx figured to be in trouble at the start of the season with superstar big Napheesa Collier out as she recovered from double ankle surgery. Collier missed the first 27 games of the season, but the Lynx were still the No. 1 team in the standings when she came back because of Miles’ brilliance. Miles feels like basketball’s best rookie guard since Magic Johnson. It’s not just that she’s one of the league’s best shooters and passers, but she also suppresses turnovers and brings it defensively in a way the league’s other top guards don’t really do. Miles will be tested against tough, physical defenses in the playoffs, but it sure helps to have Collier back in the fold now, and she’s been pretty great since her return. Collier felt like a top-3 player in the world before the injury, and her outside shooting has been amazing so far as she works on getting back her explosiveness as a driver. This is the best two-man game in the W, and it should be the foundation for a championship run.

The Lynx certainly aren’t unbeatable, though. It’s easy to imagine this team could have some trouble going up against talented front court scorers like Wilson, Stewie, Reese, or Boston. There’s not a lot of size or natural rim protection up front, and that puts more pressure on the perimeter to continue forcing turnovers and closing out on shooters. Like the Aces, the Lynx aren’t very deep. It feels like head coach Cheryl Reeve only trusts six players, and that leaves no margin for error in a playoff run. Natasha Howard will be a key player. She’s been fantastic in her role all year, and she’s going to need to continue her disruptive defense and efficient scoring for the Lynx to finish this thing. If Collier regains her top form and Miles stays elite, the Lynx feel like the best team in the W, even in a wide open championship chase.