World Cup 2026: What are the knockout round scenarios for Group F?

The first set of games in Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup were a fascinating contrast, setting up an intriguing run to the knockout round in this group.

In one match, heavyweights Japan and the Netherlands finished level in a 2-2 draw, with both teams showing the skill and ability to make a deep run in the tournament.

But in the other match, Sweden throttled Tunisia 5-1, and it is Graham Potter’s side that has a chance to not only clinch a spot in the Round of 32, but perhaps even win the group, in the matches schedule for Saturday, June 20.

Here are the clinching scenarios for Group F entering the second set of matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Update (Saturday afternoon): With a 5-1 win over Sweden, the Netherlands moved into first place in Group F.

What are the Group F standings?

Entering Saturday’s two Group F matches, here are the current standings.

Japan is ahead of the Netherlands due to the “total content score,” as the Netherlands earned three yellow cards in the match between the teams, while Japan kept things clean. As we will see in a moment, this is one of the tiebreakers used at the World Cup.

What are the next Group F matches?

Four matches remain in Group F, starting with a pair on Saturday, June 20. All times listed are Eastern.

Saturday, June 20

Netherlands 5, Sweden 1

Sunday, June 21

Tunisia vs. Japan, 12:00 a.m.

Thursday, June 25

Tunisia vs. Netherlands, 7:00 p.m.
Japan vs. Sweden, 7:00 p.m.

What are the current scenarios for Group F?

Here are the scenarios for Group F entering the matches on Saturday, June 20.

Sweden

We start with Sweden who, as noted above, can book a spot in the Round of 32 this weekend.

At the outset, with a win over the Netherlands, Sweden is guaranteed to advance to the knockout round as one of the top two teams in Group F. That would move them to six points, and at worst they would finish second in the group.

But with a win against the Netherlands, and a Japan loss or tie against Tunisia, Sweden will clinch the top spot in Group F, and a date with the second-place team from Group C in the Round of 32. A win against the Netherlands would move Sweden to six points, and a Japan loss or tie would either keep them on one point or move them to two points. Even with a win against Sweden in the final match of group play, Japan could not overtake Sweden on points in this scenario.

Tunisia

On the other side of things, Tunisia faces elimination on Saturday. With a loss to Japan, and a Netherlands win against Sweden, Tunisia is eliminated from knockout round contention.

Japan and the Netherlands

Both Japan and the Netherlands cannot be eliminated in the second set of matches, nor can they clinch a spot in the knockout round. We will updated this piece with their scenarios ahead of the third set of matches in Group F.

What about tiebreakers in Group F?

Now we get to the tiebreaker scenarios that come into play with Group F, starting on Saturday, June 20.

Here is how tiebreakers work at the World Cup this year. If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points following the group stage, a three-step process will be followed to determine tiebreakers.

In the first step, the greatest number of points in the group matches between the tied teams will be applied. Then, the superior goal difference from the group matches between the tied teams will be applied, and finally, the greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the tied teams will be applied.

If that cannot determine a tiebreaker, then the teams that are still equal will advance to step two. In this stage, the first step is the goal difference in all group matches, then the greatest number of goals in all group matches, and finally the highest team conduct score (relating to yellow and red cards) will be applied.

If that does not break the tie, then the teams still equal on points will be ranked according to the most recent FIFA World Rankings.

That first step, which reads “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned” according to FIFA, effectively turns into a head-to-head tiebreaker in the case of ties between two teams.

Ahead of the second set of matches, the only tiebreaker in play is the team conduct score, which tilts in Japan’s favor at the moment to slot them into second place in the group ahead of the Netherlands. We will revisit this section ahead of the third set of matches if necessary.