Why Arizona basketball is on upset alert in 2026 NCAA Tournament

Arizona basketball brings an astonishing 32-2 record to March Madness 2026. It helps the Wildcats landed in one of the easier regionals in the NCAA Tournament. ‘Zona will be a heavy favorite to win it all under head coach Tommy Lloyd.

Arizona even survived the toughest basketball conference with sustaining only two losses. Lloyd may finally have his first national title contender in his five seasons at Tucson.

But as a reminder for fans filling out brackets, upsets sprout out of nowhere. Even No. 1 seeds can go down (just look at 2018 Virginia and 2023 Purdue).

Here’s why Arizona enters Viejas Arena in San Diego on upset alert.

Ball security inconsistency could doom Arizona

The Wildcats turn the ball over 10.8 times per game. Worse is that six different players have lost the basketball 41 times or more.

The ball security woes showed up in the loss against Kansas (13 turnovers). They even lost the basketball 12 times in the semifinals game against Iowa State before snatching the 82-80 win.

The turnovers stall the rapid ball movement Lloyd implemented. He’s not a coach who gets his guys playing slow then punishing teams. Lloyd wants Arizona out-running and wearing down teams.

Unfortunately that philosophy runs the risk of the ball going out of bounds or landing in the wrong hands. Long Island will attempt to force turnovers in the effort to stay in the game.

Perimeter shooting another Arizona flaw

Lloyd punishes teams in the paint. Even star guards Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley attack inside. Then the lineup of bigs from Koa Peat, Montiejus Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov gash teams down low with their size and brute physicality.

But Arizona rarely hits from long range because of this approach. The ‘Cats rank 358th overall in attempts per game at 16.5.

Teams will attempt to seal inside lanes and force Arizona to shoot from long range. That approach can throw off Lloyd’s fast paced system.

The 16th seed Long Island doesn’t pose a threat to overwhelm Arizona with size, though. So which team rises as the biggest threat to sound off the upset alarm?

Teams that could topple Arizona out west

Villanova rises as the first immediate threat to the Wildcats should the Big East representative beat Utah State Friday.

‘Nova is another rapid fire team that trusts its guards to lead the offense stampede. They also bottle the three at a high rate. However, these Wildcats struggle with preventing interior scoring…handing ‘Zona the advantage if they meet Sunday.

The Aggies are no slouch either. USU presents a balanced offensive attack that averages 71.1 points per game. The Mountain West Conference representative also makes 49.6% from field goal range. But fouls and rebounding are Utah State’s flaws.

Arkansas looks like the biggest hurdle. National champion head coach John Calipari has the Razorbacks playing more confidently with four players who average in double figures for points. “Cal’s” history of knocking off high seeds also comes into play.

Arizona is itching for its first national title celebration since 1997. Lloyd loaded the roster with high energy scorers. But the road gets tougher after the Long Island game.

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