Uruguay vs. Spain 2026 World Cup predictions, odds, pick

It is match day three of the Group Stage in Group H at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It is the two top teams in the group as Uruguay faces Spain. Spain is the only team in the group with a win, while Uruguay has two draws. Now the two will face off in Guadalajara, Mexico, in their third fixture. It is time to continue our World Cup odds series with a Uruguay-Spain prediction and pick.

Uruguay comes into the fixtures off draws in their prior two matches. They opened up against Saudi Arabia. Abdulelah Al-Amri scored in the 41st minute for Saudi Arabia. Uruguay would tie up the game with a goal in the 80th minute from Maxi Araujo. While Uruguay managed the tie, they dominated the game. The team has 66.8 percent of the possession, while also getting 28 shots off and ten on target. This led to an expected goal value of 1.72, but they managed just the one goal and had to settle for the draw.

In their second fixture, they faced Cape Verde. In the 21st minute, Uruguay was down once again, as Kevin Pina scored the first goal in World Cup history for Cape Verde. Uruguay would once again tie the game. It was a second goal of the World Cup for Araujo in the 44th minute, before Agustin Canobbio scored in stoppage time of the first half to take the lead. Cape Verde scored in the 61st minute to tie the game, and the game ended in a 2-2 draw.  Once again, Uruguay dominated the game, finishing with a 2.31 expected goal total, while Cape Verde had just .88 expected goals, but still, it was a draw.

Meanwhile, Spain faced Cape Verde in their first fixture. Spain dominated the game, with 27 shots and seven on target. Meanwhile, Cape Verde has just six shots with one on target. Despite having a 2.1 expected goals figure, Spain could not find the back of the net, and Cape Verde tied Spain 0-0 in the first fixture.

Spain dominated the second game against Saudi Arabia. They scored in the tenth minute with a goal from Lamine Yamal. Then, Mikel Oyarzabal scored in the 21st and 24th minutes to make it 3-0. An own goal from Saudi Arabia would make it 4-0 in the 49th minute of the game. Once again, Spain put up a ton of shots. They had 22 shots overall with eight on target. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia had just three shots, with one on target in the loss to Spain.

2026 World Cup odds courtesy of DraftKings

Uruguay vs. Spain 2026 World Cup Odds

Uruguay 3-Way Moneyline: +650

Spain 3-Way Moneyline: -205

Draw: +320

Over 2.5 Goals: -120

Under 2.5 Goals: -105

Keys to Uruguay vs. Spain Matchup

For Uruguay they need to have a strong defense to have any chance in this game. Uruguay had limited chances against Saudi Arabia in their first fixture, giving up seven shots with three on target. Still, they gave up a goal on an expected total of just .66. Further, they struggled to turn their opportunities into goals, with 27 shots and ten on target, scoring just once. Then, against Cape Verde, they have just had 12 shots with four on target. That was good for a .88 expected goals against, but they still surrendered two goals. Uruguay has not performed to expectations so far, and that needs to change to have any shot against Spain.

For Spain, it is all about converting on chances. They have done a great job overall. In their four games of World Cup qualification prior to the World Cup, they scored 12 goals, averaging three goals per game. While they did not score against Cape Verde, they would rebound to score four goals against Saudi Arabia. They have done a fantastic job of getting shots off. Overall, in the first two fixtures, Sapin has 29 shots, with 15 on target. They also have an expected goals value of 4.5. They did a great job of converting against Saudi Arabia, but did not do that against Cape Verde. If they can perform as they did against Saudi Arabia, they will be just fine against Uruguay.

Uruguay vs. Spain Prediction and Pick

Spain needs just one point to move on in the World Cup. If they manage a draw, they will likely take the top spot in Group H. Only Cape Verde would be able to pass then, but it would take a lot. With Spain having a plus-four goal differential, Cape Verde would need to win by four goals, while Spain scores less than two. The likelihood of both happening would be slim.

Meanwhile, Uruguay could still advance with a draw, but would need to either have Cape Verde also draw, while scoring the same number of goals as them, or more. They could also advance as a third-place team with a draw, but that is leaving things up to chance, and they could also need to score more goals as part of a tiebreaker.

With all of that, expect Spain to push early, as a loss, combined with a Cape Verde win, would throw them into third place. Still, Uruguay needs goals and needs to get a point in the game. While they could advance with a loss, a heavy loss, hurting their goal differential, could kill those thoughts. That makes the best play on this game being the total, while Spain also gets the win.

Final Uruguay vs. Spain 2026 World Cup Prediction and Pick: Spain ML (-205) and Over 2.5 (-120)

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