talkSPORT betting tips – Best bets and expert advice for UFC 323

The Ultimate Fighting Championship brings the curtain down on their numbered cards for 2025 with a bang as UFC 323 lands in Las Vegas.

The Main Event sees an opportunity for Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili to make a historic fourth straight defence in 12 months as he faces Petr Yan.

The co-main event sees Flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja face rising star Joshua Van.

Here we preview some of the best bets from UFC 323.

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UFC 323 Tips

• Merab Dvalishvili to win by Submission @ 10/1
• Payton Talbott to win by Decision or Technical Decision @ 21/20
• Manuel Torres to win @ 7/4

Merab The Machine

Merab Dvalishvili (21-4-0, 14-2 UFC) can make history here by becoming the first champion to make four title defences in a calendar year when he faces Petr Yan (19-5-0, 11-4 UFC).

Dvalishvili has already beaten three top-class opponents in 2025, when outpacing number one contender Umar Nurmagomedov (Dec), earning submission victory when rematching Sean O’Malley (R3) and putting on a clinic against top contender Cory Sandhagen (Dec).

The Georgian has also already convincingly beaten Yan, with this a rematch of a 2023 encounter when Dvalishvili suffocated the Russian with 49 takedown attempts, landing only 11, but out-significant striking him to the tune of 148-75.

Yan has put himself back in the title picture with three straight wins since losing to Dvalishvili, winning unanimous decisions against Song Yadong, Deiveson Figueiredo and Marcus McGhee.

In truth, as good as Yan’s boxing and trips can be, none of those three wins give us any reason to believe the 32-year-old can reverse his fortunes here.

Dvalishvili is growing in confidence and his skillset is evolving at a phenomenal rate, with his improving striking and submission threat making him live to end this within this distance and make 2025 a year to remember.

Olympic champ to pass the torch?

A potential changing of the guard match-up takes place here as former two-weight champion Henry Cejudo (16-5-0, 10-5-0 UFC) faces Payton Talbott (10-1-0, 4-1-0 UFC).

An Olympic gold medalist and UFC Flyweight and Bantamweight champion, Cejudo has done it all in his career, however the now 38-year-old hopes to stop a three-fight slump here.

The American retired as 135lb champion in 2020 after a second-round stoppage of Dominick Cruz and returned to the sport three years later with defeats to Aljamain Sterling (SD), Merab Dvalishvili (UD) and Song Yadong (TD – eye poke).

Talbott is a prospect the UFC have pushed since his 2023 Contender Series win over Reyes Cortez.

The 27-year-old racked up three consecutive finishes of Nick Aguirre (sub – R3), Cameron Saaiman (TKO – R2) and Yanis Ghemmouri (TKO – R1) before bumping into Raoni Barcelos in January.

The Brazilian handed Talbott an unexpected loss, however the American bounced back with a win over fellow hot prospect Felipe Lima in June.

This undoubtedly is Talbott’s toughest test to date but his defence against a fast twitch grappler in Lima was impressive and in theory those improvements could do him well against an ageing Cejudo.

Talbott has a six-inch height advantage here and could work his striking well at range.

Cejudo has said this is his retirement fight and the torch could be passed here, leaving Talbott in line for a huge 2026.

Torres The Terminator

Grant Dawson (23-2-1, 11-1-1) and Manuel Torres (16-3-0, 4-1-0) bring an exciting clash of two up-and-coming Lightweights with contrasting styles.

Dawson is grappler who has been on a hot streak of late with wins over Diego Ferreira (UD), Rafa García (R2 – TKO) and Joe Solecki (UD) moving him into the top fifteen of the 155lb division.

The 31-year-old bounced back from a 33 second TKO loss to King Green last September, where he was knocked down by a straight left before being finished.

Torres is a striker who has finished all of his UFC wins to date, including three by knockout.

The Mexican is relentless and arrives here off the back of a first round TKO of Drew Dober in March.

The 30-year-old handled the grappling of Chris Duncan in what was his only win by submission, while his only UFC defeat was in a firefight with kickboxer Ignacio Bahamondes last September.

On paper this is very much a striker vs. grappler contest and Torres is the pick to find the mark on Dawson’s chin.

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