Spurs vs. Timberwolves 2026 NBA Western Conference Semifinals Game 4 prediction, odds, pick

The 2026 NBA Western Conference Semifinals continue as we’re back with a prediction and pick for this pivotal Game 4 tilt. The San Antonio Spurs will visit the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 4, San Antonio leading 2-1. Check our NBA Playoffs odds series for the Spurs-Timberwolves prediction and pick.

The San Antonio Spurs took Game 3 on the road 115-108 to take a 2-1 lead in this series. Victor Wembanyama was sensational once again with 39 points and 15 rebounds as the Spurs led for the vast majority of the game. Anthony Edwards did all he could with 32 points, 14 rebounds, and six assists, leading his team in all three categories.

The loss marked the first time the Timberwolves dropped two-straight against the Spurs throughout their six total meetings this season, Minnesota coming in the home betting underdogs to even this series before heading back to San Antonio.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Game 4 Odds

San Antonio Spurs: -4.5 (-115)

Minnesota Timberwolves: +4.5 (-105)

Over: 217.5 (-115)

Under: 217.5 (-105)

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Key Injuries 

San Antonio: None to report.

Minnesota: Donte DiVincenzo (achilles – OUT)

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends

• The Minnesota Timberwolves are 29-16 at home. The San Antonio Spurs are 33-13 on the road.
• The Spurs have gone 56-16 as favorites. The Timberwolves are 12-19 as underdogs.
• The Timberwolves are 42-49 ATS overall, 21-24 ATS on the road. The Spurs are 53-38 ATS overall, 27-19 ATS on the road.
• The Timberwolves are 6-4 outright in their last 10 games against the Spurs. Both teams are 5-5 ATS in those games.
• The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
• The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home.
• The Spurs have won 11 of their last 12 games on the road.
• The Timberwolves are 7-1 outright in their last eight home games against the Spurs.
• The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight games between the Spurs and Timberwolves.

Keys to Spurs vs. Timberwolves Matchup

The Timberwolves simply couldn’t find answers against Victor Wembanyama in Game 3, replicating another dominant performance from Game 2 and finally settling into this series after a gut punch in Game 1. The Timberwolves should come out much stronger at home in this game to avoid a 3-1 deficit, so expect another aggressive scoring effort out of Anthony Edwards all game. Julius Randle has also been quiet the last two games with 24 combined points during the outings, so expect him to get involved in the low blocks early and trying to stretch his shooting out to the three-point line.

Timberwolves’ Rudy Gobert was arguably their most important player in the First Round against Denver as he did a phenomenal job keeping Nikola Jokic in-check with his aggressive box-outs and shot blocking ability. He found success bullying Wembanyama in Game 1, but the young superstar has gotten the best of the four-time NBA DPOY Gobert. Look for Gobert to have another crucial role in this series when it comes to shutting down Victor Wembanyama. He’s one of the most technical and physical rebounders in the league and his dominance over Wembanyama will be the only thing keeping Minnesota in this series.

While going a lackluster 3-11 from the field in Game 3, Spurs’ Stephon Castle clearly took a facilitating role with 12 assists while feeding the hot hand in Wembanyama. De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Castle all scored in double figures and played the perfect complementary roles with clutch baskets down the stretch. This Spurs team continues to show how deep their roster is when they’re able to play in conjunction with Wembanyama’s scoring.

For the Timberwolves, Jaden McDaniels also saw a tough shooting night in Game 3 going 5-22 from the field as Terrence Shannon Jr. was quiet with five points as well. If the Spurs are managing to see contributions deep into their bench, the Timberwolves will need much more from their supporting cast if they want to make this a competitive series.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

The Timberwolves will have their backs against the wall during this game and it should be apparent from the opening possessions that they’ll be aggressive in creating shots early. Look for Anthony Edwards to look for the foul line as Julius Randle should be establishing his low-post positioning early. Jaden McDaniels is due for a big performance in this series and the Timberwolves should be playing at a higher pace on their home floor.

However, the Spurs have established confidence and dominance in the paint behind Victor Wembanyama and it doesn’t seem as though that momentum will slow during this series. Unless Rudy Gobert can emerge as the defensive catalyst for Minnesota, we should see much of the same from Wemby dominating with his shot blocking, scoring, and reboudning.

For our final prediction, we’re going to roll with the San Antonio Spurs to cover the spread on the road as they’ve been solid in spots like these all season. The Timberwolves should keep this game close down the stretch, but the depth of San Antonio and their clutch scoring in the fourth should lift them to a 3-1 lead in this series.

Final Spurs-Timberwolves Game 4 Prediction & Pick: San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (-115); OVER 217.5 (-115)

The post Spurs vs. Timberwolves 2026 NBA Western Conference Semifinals Game 4 prediction, odds, pick appeared first on ClutchPoints.