Rose Namajunas vs. Natalia Silva prediction, odds, pick for UFC 324

The UFC 324 Main Card is continuing to heat up as we take a look at this next high-level bout in the Women’s Flyweight (125) Division. Former champion No. 6 Rose Namajunas will take on Brazil’s No. 2 Natalia Silva in a short-notice bout following a cancellation. Check our UFC odds series for the Namajunas-Silva prediction and pick.

Rose Namajunas (14-7) has gone 12-6 inside the UFC since 2014 en route to holding a championship belt. Winning her last bout over Miranda Maverick, she’ll pivot after her original opponent Alex Grasso withdrew prior. Namajunas comes in the significant underdog, standing 5-foot-5 with a 65-inch reach.

Natalia Silva (19-5-1) is currently a perfect 7-0 inside the UFC since 2022. She’s now posted back-to-back victories over two former champions in Jessica Andrade and Alexa Grasso, so adding a third could put her in line for a title shot of her own. Silva stands 5-foot-4 with a 65-inch reach.

UFC 324 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 324 Odds: Rose Namajunas-Natalia Silva Odds

Rose Namajunas: +300

Natalia Silva: -380

Over 2.5 rounds: -475

Under 2.5 rounds: +325

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Why Rose Namajunas Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Miranda Maverick – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 5 SUB

Rose Namajunas looked sharp once again during her last bout against Miranda Maverick, facing a much more physically-imposing opponent up a weight class. Namajunas was decisive with her striking and very strong with her takedown defense, so expect her to carry that confidence into this fight.

Namajunas is much more measure in her striking approach and what may come off as looking overly cautious is really just her calculated the distance from which to throw her shots. She demonstrated such with her famous knockout over Weili Zhang, but displayed another patient game against an aggressive opponent like Maverick in her last fight. Silva has been known for her high output and relentless pressure, so expect Namajunas to use that to her advantage in game planning ahead of the bout.

Her jiu jitsu is also world-class and she should be able to defend herself properly if Silva ends up taking her down. Namajunas is much more reactionary and allows her opponent to make the first move, so she should focus on dictating the striking pace and being decisive in how she dictates the octagon control.

Why Natalia Silva Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Alexa Grasso – U DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 7 SUB

Natalia Silva continues to prove herself each time out, making her last two wins over former champions look easy. She’s extremely active with her striking and has a ton of pop to her punches, stunning opponents with her power early into the fight. She’s also extremely active with her kicking game, matching up against another willing kicker in Namajunas. Silva’s high energy and output will be her biggest strength during this fight despite coming in on short notice.

Silva’s greatest strength is her unrelenting output and ability to be fresh after a three-round kickboxing fight. She’s very skilled on the ground with seven submission wins to show for it, but it’s been her dominant striking winning her fights over the last four bouts. She’s landing 5.04 significant strikes per minute at an impressive 65% defense rate. She’s also absorbing less strikes (2.46) per minutes than her opponent Namajunas (3.38), so she should have the advantage in the striking numbers by the end of this one.

Final Rose Namajunas-Natalia Silva Prediction & Pick

With Rose Namajunas pivoting to a new opponent in this fight, one has to wonder how much her game plan will change in going from Alexa Grasso to Natalia Silva. This could be considered a step up in competition given Silva’s most recent victory over Grasso, but a win for Namajunas would nonetheless put her in title conversations.

It will also be interesting to see how Natalia Silva handles the shorter training camp, but she should have the clear advantage if she’s able to replicate her usual style and pace. Throughout this fight, remaining defensively sound while still being aggressive with her striking will be the key to victory for Natalia Silva.

Rose Namajunas is one of the toughest fighters on the women’s roster and given Silva’s recent trends, this fight should head towards another decision. I expect the betting favorite to be the more active side throughout this one. There’s never any lulls in Silva’s activity and given her recent displays of cardio, she should blaze through this fight at a blistering pace. Let’s roll with the favorite and the over.

Final Rose Namajunas-Natalia Silva Prediction & Pick: Natalia Silva (-380); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-475)

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