Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres prediction, odds, pick for UFC Baku

UFC Baku has reached its apex as we bring you a prediction and pick for this Main Event bout taking place between ranked contenders in the Lightweight (155) Divison. No. 11 Rafael Fiziev will represent Azerbaijan as he takes on Mexico’s No. 15 Manuel Torres quickly rising through the rankings. Check our UFC odds series for the Fiziev-Torres prediction and pick.

Rafael Fiziev (13-5) has gone 7-5 since joining the UFC roster in 2019. After rattling off six-straight wins, Fiziev has lost four of his last five fights, two of those losses coming against Justin Gaethje. He fell to Mauricio Ruffy his last time out and will be looking for redemption in front of his home country fans. Fiziev stands 5-foot-8 with a 71.5-inch reach.

Manuel Torres (17-3) has gone 5-1 inside the UFC since 2022. The former Contender Series product is on a two-fight winning streak that included first-round knockouts over Drew Dober and Grant Dawson. He withdrew from his last bout against Beneil Dariush but will be ready to make his Main Event debut in this one. Torres stands 5-foot-10 with a 73,5-inch reach.

UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Baku Odds: Rafael Fiziev-Manuel Torres Odds

Rafael Fiziev: -115

Manuel Torres: -105

Over 1.5 rounds: -160

Under 1.5 rounds: +124

Why Rafael Fiziev Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Mauricio Ruffy – TKO (punches, R2)
• Last 5: 1-4
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Rafael Fiziev came up short once again when facing Mauricio Ruffy his last time out, struggling with the striking speed and distance management of his opponent. Fiziev is typically a master of gauging the distance and slipping away from opponents just in time, but the length and pressure of Ruffy was simply too much for him to escape from. The loss comes after Fiziev’s dominance over another young Mexican prospect in Ignacio Bahamondes, so he’s seen this type of look in the past and has emerged victorious as a result.

Rafael Fiziev is strong wherever the fight may take place and it’s worth noting that he’s fought a full six rounds against current champion Justin Gaethje and took him to a decision verdict on both occasions. Not only is Fiziev game to trade in the center of the octagon, but he’s more than willing to take a punch and if he doesn’t respect his opponent’s power, he’ll continue marching forward all night with little regard for his own defense.

In this fight, Fiziev will have to overcome a height and reach disadvantage once again which he’s undoubtedly struggled against in the past. While Torres sports an impressive 90% takedown defense, Fiziev’s 66% accuracy should serve him well if he looks for the inside trip or takedown along the fence. As long as he’s able to remain aggressive without letting Torres settle into a striking groove, Fiziev should be able to cruise to a decision win having more experience in this type of environment.

Why Manuel Torres Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Grant Dawson – KO (uppercut, R1)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 7 SUB

Following a quick setback where he fell to Ignacio Bahamondes in the first round, Manuel Torres learned his lesson from the loss and went on to finish strong UFC talents like Drew Dober and Grant Dawson inside the first round. With a strong frame for the Lightweight Division, Torres is a devastating striker with great finishing power at this weight.

His length allows him to keep opponents on the end of his punches and when he’s able to load and land his right hand, he’s usually able to sit opponents down and quickly rush in for the finish.

Manuel Torres is also very active with his kicking to all three levels and should offer a solid look against a similar style in Fiziev’s. He’ll be able to return right back with low leg kicks while forcing Fiziev to be conscious of such. He’s also very consistent in throwing his right hand consecutively after the low leg kick, so expect Torres to be throwing punches over the top as he tries to drop Fiziev’s hands.

Final Rafael Fiziev-Manuel Torres Prediction & Pick

This fight should have all the makings of a striking classic despite the fact both fighters are heading in opposite directions in terms of their overall records. Manuel Torres is riding great momentum following back-to-back knockouts in the first round while Fiziev is coming in off being knocked out himself.

Still, we can’t deny Rafael Fiziev’s body of work despite record and the simple fact he hung in there for six rounds against the current champion Gaethje should tell you everything about his skill level. Torres may seem like a dangerous prospect at the outset, but there’s still levels to the fight game and Rafel Fiziev has gone toe-to-toe against some of the best.

For our final prediction, we’ll have to side with Rafael Fiziev to rise to the occasion in front of his home Azerbaijan fans. The skill gap should become apparent between these two quickly and I expect Fiziev to show up very polished and ready to do damage.

Final Rafael Fiziev-Manuel Torres Prediction & Pick: Rafael Fiziev (-115); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-160)

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