Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned Frogs odds, predictions, and betting tips – March Madness First Round

The first round of March Madness continues on Thursday afternoon, and the first game on the slate is Ohio State and TCU. 

This is a matchup of the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds from the East portion of the bracket. 

The winner will move on to face the winner of No. 1 Duke and No. 16 Sienna. Let’s see who advances. 

Ohio State vs TCU best bets

• Bruce Thornton 20+ Points – -118 with FanDuel
• David Punch 15+ Points – -143 with Caesars 
• Juni Mobley Under 3.5 3-Pointers –  –150 with BetMGM

Ohio State heads into this game coming off a loss to the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Tournament. Before that, they did manage to beat Iowa to advance, 72-69, but didn’t cover the spread. The Buckeyes did win three straight to close out the regular season, including a big win over Purdue.

They’re led by Bruce Thornton, who averages 20.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. He also shoots 40% from beyond the arc and 64.7% on 2-point shots. All in all, they have five players who average 9.7 points per game or more. The Buckeyes rank 16th in offensive efficiency (124.3) and 54th in defensive efficiency (102.1). 

They’ll be taking on TCU, a team that’s full of depth, with seven players who average eight points per game or more. Their leading scorer is David Punch, who averages 14.3 points and 6.7 rebounds per game.

The Horned Frogs will have an advantage in the offensive rebound category, as they average more than 10 per game. They’re also a bit more up-tempo, averaging 72.3 possessions per game.

The Horned Frogs ended the regular season winning eight of their last nine. They’re 81st in offensive efficiency (115.3) and 23rd in defensive efficiency (97.8). 

Ohio State vs TCU preview

This is going to be an extremely close game. TCU doesn’t have a player like Thornton, no, but they have depth offensively, and some solid 3-point shooters like Liutauras Lelevicius and Jayden Pierre. 

TCU is a slightly better rebounding team, especially on offensive boards, and it’s hard to deny TCU’s run as of late. Not only did they win eight of their last nine, but Punch put up 26 in a win over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament and 24 more in a five-point loss to Kansas. 

Also, earlier this season, TCU took down the defending champions in the Florida Gators. 

In a game this close, I’ll take the points. Take TCU +2.5 (-105) at FanDuel. 

Ohio State vs TCU tips

Find the latest odds for Ohio State vs. TCU courtesy of FanDuel. Odds are subject to change.

This spread is right about where it should be. Ohio State has its program’s all-time leading scorer, and he averages more than 20 points per game, so TCU will need to slow him down. That said, these odds also recognize the run TCU has been on, their depth, and Punch’s ability to score 20-plus when he needs to.

Bruce Thornton 20+ points

As mentioned, Thornton is averaging 20.2 points per game. Not only that, but over his last five games, he’s been on a roll, putting up 20 or more in four of those. In a four-point loss to Michigan in which Ohio State scored 67, he had 20. His best performance over that stretch came against Indiana when he had 25. 

Thornton makes the bulk of his points on 2-point shots, and TCU allows teams to shoot better than 51% on those. As for 3-point range, TCU is 170th in the country at 33.7%. It’s OK, but not spectacular. 

In the first round of March Madness, the Buckeyes will turn to their leading scorer to lead them to the next round. 

Win or lose, Thornton will have a nice outing. 

Back Bruce Thornton to have 20 points or more against TCU at -118 with FanDuel

David Punch 15+ points

Averaging 14.3 points per game, Punch has had some of the best games of his season recently, putting up 24 against Kansas and 26 against Oklahoma State. Those were the biggest games of their season to that point, and those stakes only get higher in the NCAA Tournament. 

Punch is not a 3-point shooter. He averages nine 2-point attempts per game and is shooting 55.4% on those shots. 

Now, he’s taking on a Buckeyes defense that allows teams to shoot 52.3% on 2-point shots (212th), but they’ve been dreadful in that category over their last three, allowing teams to shoot 58.7%. 

Punch will need to step up to keep pace with Thornton. 

Back David Punch to have 15 points or more against Ohio State at -143 with Caesars

Juni Mobley under 3.5 3-point shots

The line for Mobley was tempting to go over and get those “+” odds, but I couldn’t do it. While he’s averaging 7.5 3-point attempts per game, he’s making 3.1 of them (41.8%). Over his last five games, he’s had four or more twice, but that hasn’t been in any of his last three. 

Also, one of those games was against Penn State, one of the worst teams in the conference, and he shot lights out, going 8-for-9 from deep.

The Horned Frogs, as mentioned, hold teams to 33.7% from beyond the arc, and over their last three, that number is down to 31.3%. Against Kansas, they held them to just 23.5%. 

Mobley will get close. I predict he finishes with three. 

Wager Juni Mobley to have three 3-point shots or fewer against TCU at -150 with BetMGM

Ohio State vs TCU injury report

Below are the key injuries to report ahead of this opening March Madness contest.

Ohio State Buckeyes

• Out: Myles Herro (guard) – redshirt
• Questionable: Taison Chatman (guard) – undisclosed; Josh Ojiianwuna (forward) – knee.
• Doubtful: N/A

TCU Horned Frogs

• Out: Malik Diallo (center) – knee.
• Questionable: N/A
• Doubtful: N/A

Ohio State vs TCU game info

• Date: Thursday, March 19th, 2026
• Time: 12:15pm ET
• Venue: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC
• Where to watch: CBS, Paramount+

About the author

Richard Janvrin

Richard Janvrin brings nearly a decade of experience covering sports, sports betting, and everything iGaming. Richard received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism/English from the University of New Hampshire. Throughout his career, Richard has written for sites like Bleacher Report, Forbes, The Game Day, WSN, Gambling.com, and many more.

Find him on Twitter: @RichardJanvrin

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