NCAA baseball tournament: Predictions for the Super Regionals

It is time for Super Regionals at the NCAA baseball tournament.

And time for some predictions.

16 teams still have a shot at moving on to Omaha, and some MLB Draft prospects have another weekend to impress the scouts. But who will be left standing when the Super Regionals are over?

Morgantown Super Regional

No. 16 West Virginia vs. Cal Poly

How West Virginia reached the Super Regionals

West Virginia entered the NCAA baseball tournament as the No. 16 overall seed, getting to play at home in front of the faithful in Morgantown. But after the Mountaineers dispatched Binghamton in their opener, they dropped a chaotic game to Kentucky in the 1-0 matchup, sending West Virginia to the losers’ bracket.

A win over Wake Forest, and then two more dramatic wins over Kentucky, pushed the Mountaineers into the Supers where they will host Cal Poly.

How Cal Poly reached the Super Regionals

When the pairing were announced for regionals, many expected a team to sweep their way through Los Angeles.

Just not Cal Poly.

UCLA entered the NCAA baseball tournament as the top-overall seed, but a shocking loss to Saint Mary’s dropped the Bruins into the losers’ bracket. Meanwhile, the Mustangs won their first two games, and waited on the that advanced out of the losers’ bracket.

That would be Saint Mary’s, as the Bruins lost again to bring their tournament to an early end.

The Mustangs advanced to the Supers with a 5-2 win over Saint Mary’s last Sunday, setting up a trip to Morgantown.

Morgantown Super Regional Prediction

The Mustangs get the benefit of a clean regional, and have their pitching set up as they head to Morgantown. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are coming off a long stretch of innings in the regional, and how quickly can they turn it on again after a wild few days?

Still, there is something special about this West Virginia team, and look for the Mountaineers to move on in gritty fashion yet again.

West Virginia in 3

Troy Super Regional

Troy vs. Little Rock

How Little Rock reached the Super Regionals

Winners of the Ohio Valley tournament, the Trojans were dropped onto the No. 4 line for the Hattiesburg regional. That set up a meeting with Southern Miss, the No. 7 overall seed, in their first game. But after dispatching the hosts 7-4 in the opener, Little Rock continued to defy expectations, sweeping their way to the Supers.

A team with the 104th-ranked schedule, a record of 36-26, and an RPI of 89 is one of the 16 left standing.

How Troy reached the Super Regionals

The Trojans finished the regular season with a 32-29 record, and despite those 29 losses, Troy secured an at-large bid in the field. But the Trojans rewarded the Selection Committee’s trust, bouncing back after an opening-game loss to Miami by storming to the Supers. Their run to the next round included a pair of wins over Florida, the No. 8 team in the field, during their final two days in Gainesville.

Troy Super Regional Prediction

The reason Troy made the Field of 64? The schedule they faced during the regular season. Troy took on the seventh-toughest schedule in the land this year, and despite those 29 losses, they fared well against teams that ultimately made the tournament. The team’s tournament resume included wins over Georgia (in Athens), Alabama, a season sweep of Alabama State, a series win against Texas State, and a series win against Louisiana.

This is the ultimate “Cinderella” bracket, as both teams are in the Super Regionals for the first time, and one will head to Omaha for its Men’s’ College World Series debut. Either would be an incredible story, but that tough regular-season schedule will continue to pay off for Troy.

Troy in 3

Chapel Hill Super Regional

No. 5 North Carolina vs. Southern California

How North Carolina reached the Super Regionals

The Tar Heels were slotted in as the No. 5 team in the field, and made quick work of things in the Chapel Hill regional, sweeping their way to the Supers. North Carolina knocked off VCU 8-0 in the opener, then beat East Carolina twice to book their spot to the next round.

How Southern California reached the Super Regionals

Things were a bit tougher for the Trojans. USC dropped its opener to Texas State, forcing a run through the losers’ bracket. The Trojans ultimately advanced to the regional final, but needed to win a pair of games against Texas A&M, the top seed in the region and the No. 12 seed overall.

But USC did just that, taking care of the Aggies 14-3 in the first game and then 7-1 in the second to advance.

Chapel Hill Super Regional Prediction

USC has the pitching to move on, led by MLB Draft prospect Mason Edwards, the top strikeout artist in the nation. Right-hander Grant Govel is another top arm the Trojans can lean on, and those two give USC more than just a fighting chance this weekend. But North Carolina won 45 games against the 15th-toughest schedule in the nation (USC played the 30th-toughest schedule) and the top of their lineup led by MLB Draft prospect Jack Schaffer can grind out some at-bats. Plus, UNC’s pitching is no slouch, as the Tar Heels had the eighth-best team ERA in the nation this year.

North Carolina in 3

Auburn Super Regional

No. 4 Auburn vs. Ole Miss

How Auburn reached the Super Regionals

The Tigers entered the NCAA baseball tournament as the No. 4 overall team, but Milwaukee shocked them in the opener, winning by 13-8 to send the Tigers to the losers’ bracket. Auburn outlasted NC State 17-13 in its first elimination game, then moved on to the regional final with a 9-3 win over UCF.

That meant a rematch with Milwaukee, but the Tigers won twice to punch a ticket to the Super Regionals.

How Ole Miss reached the Super Regionals

Ole Miss secured a spot in the Lincoln regional, a bracket that had tough competition in Nebraska, Arizona State, and South Dakota State. While some believed Arizona State was the team to beat in that region, Ole Miss did not drop a game, first beating the Sun Devils 7-6 and then Nebraska in the 1-0 game.

That set up another meeting with Arizona State, and Ole Miss advanced with a 5-4 win over the Sun Devils.

Auburn Super Regional Prediction

It might not seem like it, given the results from the regionals, but Auburn has one of the best pitching staffs in the nation. The Tigers recorded the fourth-best team ERA this season, doing so against the toughest schedule in the nation. We think that pitching staff will settle in after a tumultuous regional and book a spot in Omaha for the Tigers.

Auburn in 3

Athens Super Regional

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 14 Mississippi State

How Georgia reached the Super Regionals

Georgia won the SEC tournament and the Bulldogs entered the NCAA baseball tournament as the No. 3 overall team.

They showed why over three games at home.

Georgia swept its way to the Supers with three consecutive wins over Long Island and Liberty twice, by a combined score of 40-5.

How Mississippi State reached the Super Regionals

As for the Bulldogs, it was a relatively clean run for them as well. Mississippi State secured the No. 14 seed in the field, and swept its way to the Supers with three wins at home. Mississippi State knocked off Lipscomb 10-1 in the opener, then beat Cincinnati 10-5, followed by winning against Louisiana 19-5 to advance.

Athens Super Regional Prediction

These are two of the best teams in the nation, with both entering the NCAA tournament as top-16 seeds. When Baseball America ranked all 64 teams in the field ahead of the regionals, they slotted Georgia in at No. 2, and Mississippi State at No. 5. Both teams finished with an RPI inside the top 15 (Georgia at No. 7 and Mississippi State at No. 13), and both teams played tough schedules.

But Mississippi State played the tougher schedule.

I think Mississippi State moves on as I’m a big believer in strength of schedule, but this might be the toughest Super Regional to predict.

Mississippi State in 3

Austin Super Regional

No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Oregon

How Texas reached the Super Regionals

The Selection Committee named Texas as the No. 6 team in the field, and the Longhorns were home for the regionals. The Longhorns won their first two games by a combined score of 35-3, and were only truly tested by UC Santa Barbara in the regional final, when the Gauchos loaded the bases in the bottom of the ninth. But Texas held on to win 6-4, and punched a ticket to the Supers.

How Oregon reached the Super Regionals

Oregon almost knocked off UCLA in the Big Ten Championship game, and the Ducks earned the No. 11 seed in the field. While many thought the Eugene regional would be a tough mountain for Oregon to climb, the Ducks won all three of their games to advance. After defeating Yale 14-2, Oregon knocked off former Pac-12 rivals Washington State and Oregon State over the next two days at home.

Austin Super Regional Prediction

Both of these teams have good arms but the Texas lineup, led by MLB Draft prospects Aiden Robbins and Carson Tinney, could be the difference.

Texas in 3

Tuscaloosa Super Regional

No. 7 Alabama vs. St. John’s

How Alabama reached the Super Regionals

Alabama lost in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament, but its 37-19 record and strong RPI (sixth in the nation) were enough to earn the No. 7 seed from the Selection Committee.

The Crimson Tide made quick work of things in the Tuscaloosa regional, beating each team in the bracket and winning three straight games to advance.

How St. John’s reached the Super Regionals

St. John’s won the Big East tournament, but its reward was a spot on the No. 4 line in the Gainesville regional, and a date with tenth-overall seed Florida State in the opening game.

While they were certainly underdogs, they punched well above their weight in Gainesville, sweeping their way to the Supers with three wins, including a pair of one-run victories over Florida State.

Tuscaloosa Super Regional Prediction

This is a true “David versus Goliath” matchup. Alabama enters as the No. 7 seed, ranked sixth in RPI, and won 37 games against the third-toughest schedule in college baseball. St. John’s played the 142nd-toughest schedule in the nation, and their RPI checked in at 102.

Sometimes, Goliath wins.

Alabama in 2

Lawrence Super Regional

No. 15 Kansas vs. Oklahoma

How Kansas reached the Super Regionals

Kansas completed a stunning turnaround this season, winning the Big 12 regular season title for the first time since 1949 and hosting a regional for the first time in program history. This after the team lost 35 games back in 2022.

And while many thought the Jayhawks would be knocked off in the regionals Kansas silenced the doubters, winning three games at home to move on.

How Oklahoma reached the Super Regionals

The road to the Supers was a bit tougher for the Sooners. Oklahoma slotted in as the No. 2 seed in the Atlanta regional, in the same bracket as Georgia Tech, the second-overall seed. The Sooners dropped into the loser’s bracket after losing to Georgia Tech in the 1-0 game, and needed a win over The Citadel to reach the regional final.

Then they needed to beat Georgia Tech, the No. 2 overall seed, twice.

They did, advancing in dramatic fashion. After taking the first game, Oklahoma forced extra innings in the winner-take-all game on Monday by scoring a run in the bottom of the ninth, before winning on a walk-off home run from Dayton Tockey.

Atlanta Super Regional Prediction

In the weeks leading up to the NCAA baseball tournament, I was telling anyone who would listen about Georgia Tech’s stout offense. The Yellow Jackets lived up to that hype in the regionals, scoring 46 runs over their four games.

But it was not enough.

The Sooners have made believers out of me.

Oklahoma in 3