Napoli vs Chelsea predictions and betting tips – Can Conte beat former club?

Napoli are in danger of missing out on the knockout phase of the Champions League altogether, but they will be assured of a play-off place if they beat Chelsea on matchday eight.

Chelsea, for their part, need a victory to progress directly to the round of 16. Who will triumph at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona?

• Napoli to win – 8/5 with bet365
• Under 2.5 goals – 10/11 with bet365
• Scott McTominay to score any time – 13/5 with bet365

Napoli vs Chelsea odds

Find the latest Napoli vs Chelsea betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Napoli vs Chelsea predictions

With many Chelsea fans sceptical of Liam Rosenior following his installation as the club’s new manager earlier this month, the former defender needed a positive start to his tenure.

That is what he has got. Chelsea have won four of his first five games at the helm, including two in the Premier League and one in the Champions League.

Chelsea were made to work hard for their victory in Europe last week, with Moises Caicedo notching the only goal of the game against Paphos in the 78th minute.

The Blues ultimately got the job done that night and they were more comfortable on Sunday, as Rosenior oversaw a 3-1 defeat of Crystal Palace.

The criticism of Rosenior’s appointment was not so much to do with his record, but rather the perception of him as a company man.

It is fair to say Chelsea supporters have yet to be won over by the Blueco ownership model, and as the head coach of sister club Strasbourg, Rosenior had prior links with Todd Boehly, Behdad Eghbali and co.

But every manager deserves to be judged on his work and, so far at least, Rosenior has performed well in the role.

Having said that, it is too early to make definitive judgments one way or another, and the mood could be very different if results go against Chelsea over the next week or so.

A London derby against an improving West Ham United side looms on the horizon on Saturday, before another all-capital clash pits Chelsea against Arsenal in the EFL Cup semi-finals next week.

First up, though, is a trip to Italy which will decide Chelsea’s Champions League fate. The Blues will be in the competition beyond the league phase regardless of what happens on Wednesday, but they would much prefer to advance directly to the round of 16 than enter the play-offs.

A win in Naples would probably confirm Chelsea as a top-eight finisher, although there is a scenario in which they triumph but drop out on goal difference.

Their opponents have an even more pressing need to collect all three points. Without them, Napoli risk being eliminated from the Champions League.

Antonio Conte’s charges are one place outside the play-offs at present, so they will be going all-out for victory against Chelsea. That sets this one up very nicely indeed.

Napoli vs Chelsea betting tips

Napoli face Chelsea in a crunch Champions League clash on Wednesday evening.

Napoli to triumph

Over the last 15 years, few managers have been as successful as Antonio Conte in domestic competition.

In that time, Conte has won league titles with four different clubs: Juventus, Chelsea, Inter and Napoli. That is a remarkable achievement.

Yet time and time again, he has underwhelmed in Europe – and that is proving to be the case again this term.

Conte seems to struggle to get up for more run-of-the-mill continental fixtures, so perhaps it helps that Napoli are facing a heavyweight team on Wednesday.

In front of a packed Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli are capable of producing the sort of big performance needed to keep their Champions League campaign alive.

Back Napoli to win at 8/5 with bet365

Expect a tight game

Although both sides need to win to give themselves the best possible chance of realising their respective objectives, this could be a tight game.

Both Napoli and Chelsea will fear conceding the first goal, so we are likely to see a cagey first half.

Conte and Rosenior may have to take a few more risks as time wears on, but neither manager will make the mistake of opening up too early.

One goal could be enough to win this match, which promises to be absorbing if not necessarily high-scoring.

Tip under 2.5 goals at 10/11 with bet365

Watch out for McTominay

Napoli are not in great form having won only one of their last six games in all competitions, although there has only been one defeat in that time.

With just two goals in their last four outings, Conte will be looking for an improvement in attacking areas.

Scott McTominay is not part of the Napoli frontline, but since moving to Italy he has been given the license to break forward from midfield.

The Scotland international has been hugely effective in that role, contributing 22 goals since the start of last season.

McTominay can reach double figures for 2025/26 by making the net bulge against Chelsea.

Choose Scott McTominay to score any time at 13/5 with bet365

Napoli vs Chelsea predicted lineups

• Napoli expected lineup: Milinkovic-Savic, Beukema, Buongiorno, Jesus; Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola; Vergara, Elmas; Hojlund.
• Chelsea expected lineup: Sanchez; James, Chalobah, Fofana, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Neto, Palmer, Garnacho; Delap.

Where to watch Napoli vs Chelsea

• Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Italy.
• Date and time: Wednesday 28th January, 8pm.
• How to watch: TNT Sports 4.

More Champions League predictions

We have plenty more Champions League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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