Luis Gurule vs. Rei Tsuruya prediction, odds, pick for UFC Macau

UFC Macau: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo continues on the prelims with a fight between Luis Gurule and Rei Tsuruya in the bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Gurule-Tsuruya prediction and pick.

Luis Gurule (11-3) enters UFC Macau having just bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Daniel Barez at UFC Fight Night on May 16. That victory was a much-needed confidence boost after back-to-back decision losses to Jesus Aguilar and Alden Coria, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Rei Tsuruya.

Rei Tsuruya (10-1) enters UFC Macau carrying one of the most exciting finishing resumes in the flyweight division with four KOs and four submissions. He earned his UFC contract by winning the Road to UFC Season 2 tournament before defeating Carlos Hernandez by decision in his promotional debut at UFC 303. His lone loss came against current UFC Flyweight Champion Joshua Van at UFC 313 last March, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Luis Gurule.

UFC Macau Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Macau Odds: Luis Gurule-Rei Tsuruya Odds

Luis Gurule: +195

Rei Tsuruya: -238

Over 2.5 rounds: -188

Under 2.5 rounds: +145

Why Luis Gurule Will Win

Luis Gurule enters this fight with a crucial edge that often gets overlooked, his striking ability. At UFC 313, Joshua Van exposed Tsuruya as “one-dimensional,” outlanding him by 80 strikes and defending 17 of his 21 takedown attempts en route to a dominant 30-27 sweep.

If Gurule can replicate that blueprint, staying disciplined on the feet and keeping Tsuruya off his hips, he has a real path to victory. “Grim” has shown sharp hands throughout his career, earning multiple TKO stoppages on the regional circuit before making it to the UFC.

Tsuruya’s entire game is built around his wrestling and submission offense, but when that grappling is neutralized, he has shown very little to fall back on in the stand-up. Gurule is the more versatile fighter, and fighting in an environment where the crowd is not squarely behind Tsuruya could disrupt his usually relentless momentum.

Gurule also arrives on a fresh wave of confidence after his decision win over Daniel Barez just two weeks ago. He is battle-tested, sharp, and riding positive energy, and against a fighter whose only proven weapon is his grappling, “Grim” has every tool necessary to come away with the upset.

Why Rei Tsuruya Will Win

Rei Tsuruya is simply on a different level when it comes to grappling, boasting elite wrestling and jiu-jitsu that has allowed him to finish opponents in every way imaginable throughout his 10-1 career. His unorthodox over-hook game and creative takedown entries are unlike anything Gurule has faced on the regional circuit.

Gurule has shown a real vulnerability to pressure fighters in the UFC, going 1-3 at the highest level with losses coming via decision and TKO. When opponents dictate the pace and impose their will, “Grim” has struggled to find answers — and Tsuruya will do exactly that from the opening bell.

Tsuruya’s relentless cardio and cage control mean that even if Gurule survives early scrambles, the Japanese prospect will keep coming in waves. His submission threat from every position forces opponents to be defensive constantly, draining their energy and creating openings for finishes.

Gurule’s recent win over Barez was encouraging, but Tsuruya represents a massive step up in competition. With home-crowd energy in Asia and the momentum of proving himself after his first career loss to champion Joshua Van, Tsuruya is motivated, sharp, and fully capable of finishing this fight inside the distance.

Final Kangjie Zhu-Rei Tsuruya Prediction & Pick

This is a compelling flyweight matchup between a creative Japanese grappler looking to rebound and a tough American striker riding fresh momentum. The key question is simple, can Gurule keep this fight standing long enough to exploit Tsuruya’s one-dimensional tendencies?

Gurule showed in his Barez win that he can grind through adversity and execute a game plan over three rounds. But Tsuruya’s relentless grappling volume and unorthodox over-hook entries are a different puzzle entirely — one that very few fighters at flyweight have truly solved.

Tsuruya will inevitably get his takedowns, and once he gets Gurule to the mat, the submission threat becomes very real. Gurule has the heart to survive scrambles, but Tsuruya’s finishing instincts are simply too sharp to ignore.

Final Luis Gurule-Rei Tsuruya Prediction & Pick: Rei Tsuruya (-238), Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)

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