Jannik Sinner’s stunning loss changes everything at 2026 French Open

Coming into the 2026 French Open, we knew that the absence of Carlos Alcaraz meant opportunity for everyone else. Alcaraz represented one half of men’s tennis’ most oppressive duopoly, and either he or his rival Jannik Sinner had captured every Grand Slam for two full years. But whoever benefited from Alcaraz’s absence would surely just earn the right to be dismantled by Sinner in the Final, right? Right guys? 

Sinner lost?! To who!? How is that possible? To Manuel Cerundolo? Are you serious? 

Yes, I am serious. After 91-degree-weather induced cramps limited his mobility in the third set and a pretty-bogus 10 minute medical timeout (players are not allowed timeouts for cramping), Sinner lost 18 of the final 20 games in one of the biggest upsets in recent tennis history. He was a titanic favorite to win the French Open, to the point where to pick anyone else was simply contrarian. It cannot be overstated how big a deal this is. This is Pandora’s Box, the Seventh Seal, the passage cannot hold.

You know when we killed all the wolves in Yellowstone and then the environment got all messed up because there were too many elk? Yeah, this is that. The third round of the French Open is completely lacking its apex predators, and now a power vacuum is filling with tremendous opportunity and crushing anxiety. Someone go make sure Alexander Zverev isn’t just hyperventilating in his hotel room.

Three groups stand to benefit most from this situation, and I legitimately have no idea which will come out on top. First, there are the suffering contenders who have labored under the yoke of oppression for their entire careers, either from the duopoly or the triumvirate (Djokovic, Nadal, Federer). We’re talking Alex De Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alexander Zverev, mid-to-late 20s players who just haven’t been able to beat the top echelon but could beat basically anyone else.

And with this group, we’re really talking about Zverev, who has just had the worst time ever in his career, routinely ranked in the ATP Top 3 yet only ever making three Finals. He brought Alcaraz to the brink in a five-set 2024 French Open, and he’s always been effective on clay. This is put up or shut up territory for Zverev, who is now a 2-to-1 favorite to win the tournament. He may never get another shot like this. 

The second group is just a guy: Novak Djokovic, who probably cannot freaking believe his luck right now. He’s probably thought about retiring 50 times in the last two years, but he also beat Sinner this year at the Australian Open before dropping to Alcaraz in the Final. Now they’re both gone?! 

Djokovic is already the greatest of all time, but snagging a random final Grand Slam would be a nice coda to an already fabulous career. Clay has always been his weakest surface, but the crowds at Roland Garros will probably in Novak’s pocket for the rest of the tournament, which you have to factor in (you don’t, but I will). 

The final group is one that is near and dear to my heart: the Americans, whose 23-year Grand Slam drought in men’s tennis spans my entire life. I had about 20 minutes of hope for Taylor Fritz (who’s already out by the way, I mean come on) and some others after the triumvirate started to decline, but was crestfallen when I realized Alcaraz and Sinner are essentially just as impossible to beat. Now? I need Ben Shelton to lock the hell in.

Fifth-seeded Shelton is our glorious hope for American men’s tennis, but Frances Tiafoe and Learner Tien also look like they want a piece of the pie. Unfortunately, clay courts — especially the style they use at Roland Garros — are uncommon in the United States, and Americans have struggled mightily on the surface, only winning four total French Opens. John McEnroe, for example, reached just a single French Open Final. 

I’m going to level with everyone: if American men don’t band together and figure this one out, I have no idea how long it’s going to be until we get another chance like this. Clay court beasts, including Cerundolo — one of a long tradition of Argentinian clay specialists — are going to hurt their odds, as are the youth movement from Joao Fonseca and Rafael Jodar. But I believe. I always believed… okay that’s not true. But right now, I believe.