Don’t reach for Patrick Mahomes early in your fantasy football draft despite training camp optimism

The Kansas City Chiefs have a thirst to make the playoffs in 2026 after only going 6-11 last season. Kansas City will be relying on QB Patrick Mahomes to come back strong after last year’s brutal ACL injury. If he can return to form, the Chiefs should go right back to becoming a playoff contender in the AFC.

Optimism around Mahomes is incredibly high at Chiefs training camp. Mahomes is also regaining favor with the national media now that he is fully healthy.

But what does this mean for Mahomes from a fantasy football perspective after a rocky 2025?

Mahomes has the potential to play a lot better in 2026 than he did last season. But he will be far from a safe pick in fantasy football drafts this fall.

Fantasy football managers should remain caution about Mahomes in 2026 despite all of the optimism coming out of Chiefs training camp.

Patrick Mahomes’ 2025 fantasy football statistics

Mahomes is almost certainly coming off the lowest point in his entire career. But that really isn’t saying much about the future Hall of Famer.

The 30-year-old Chiefs quarterback only managed 3,587 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last season. He also added a solid 64 carries for 422 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground.

That production looks a lot different when viewed through the lense of fantasy football compared to real life. Those stats are pretty solid in the NFL, but for fantasy football they are nothing spectacular.

Mahomes scored 285.68 fantasy points in 2025 based on ESPN’s PPR scoring system. That had him ranked as QB11, below Justin Herbert and ahead of Baker Mayfield and Jaxson Dart.

In fairness, Mahomes accomplished this in just 14 games instead of 17. Still, it is clear that Mahomes was not lighting up the scoreboard like he was earlier in this career.

Unfortunately, that trend could continue into the 2026 season.

How will Kenneth Walker III change Kansas City’s offense in 2026?

The addition of Kenneth Walker III is great news for the overall health of Kansas City’s offense. But from a fantasy football perspective, it may not be a great sign for Mahomes.

The Chiefs look poised to reestablish the run after a pretty pathetic showing last season. Kansas City only managed 106.6 rushing yards per game in 2025, which ranked 25th in the NFL. It looks worse when digging into the numbers.

Kareem Hunt was the team’s leading rusher with 611 yards, followed by Isiah Pacheco with 462 yards. They combined for 281 attempts on the year.

Meanwhile, Walker rumbled for 1,027 rushing yards and five touchdowns on just 221 attempts in Seattle.

If Walker maintains that efficiency in Kansas City, then the running game could become a much bigger part of the offense. That means fewer opportunities for Mahomes, period.

However, the alternative is another year with a weak rushing attack. That would also be bad news, as it would put more pressure on Mahomes and allow opposing defenses to sell out against the pass.

Simply put, it’s hard to see Mahomes’ fantasy stock increasing that much in 2026.

Patrick Mahomes’ 2026 fantasy football projections

Mahomes’ fantasy football projections paint a similar story.

ESPN projects that Mahomes will throw for 3,993 yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. They also have him adding 53 carries for 326 rushing yards and three touchdowns. As a result, Mahomes would finish with 289.7 fantasy points, which is basically identical to his production from last season.

The projections are not that much different over at FantasyPros. They project that Mahomes will pass for 3,833 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He would also add 60 attempts for 359 rushing yards and three touchdowns as a runner. Mahomes’ projects are essentially the same across the two platforms.

If Mahomes puts up this level of production, he simply won’t be a special fantasy asset anymore.

Verdict: do not reach on Patrick Mahomes in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts

It is finally time to admit that Mahomes is no longer the elite fantasy asset he once was.

This does not mean he cannot serve a useful role in fantasy football. But it does mean that reaching to acquire him is a huge mistake.

Fantasy football managers should apply the conventional quarterback wisdom to Mahomes. That means selecting him no earlier than round seven in single-QB redraft leagues.

Ultimately, Mahomes does have elite upside given his impressive resume. But it is extremely speculative to value him any higher than a middling QB1.

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