College football regression candidates: 5 teams, including Indiana, likely to take a step back in 2026

Life is hard in college football. It can be difficult to maintain success, especially high levels of success, from year-to-year.

Some programs simply reload rather than rebuild, and the ability to tap into the transfer portal to restock a roster certainly helps. But sometimes, the pieces do not fit together as needed, and a team takes a step back after a strong season the year before. Read our college football preseason rankings, check out our long list of Heisman candidates. We also wrote about six college football teams that could surprise everyone this year.

Here are five programs that could take a step back in 2026. For some, that might mean a few more losses than a year ago, for others, it might mean a dip below .500.

And for one, it might mean missing out on a shot at repeating as champions.

Vanderbilt

Last year the Commodores came close to crashing the College Football Playoff party, rising as high as No. 10 in the rankings after a win over LSU. Vanderbilt finished with a 10-2 record (6-2 in the SEC) after knocking off Tennessee in Knoxville, the program’s first win over Tennessee since 2018, marking the first time in school history the Commodores finished with ten wins.

A big reason for their success? Quarterback Diego Pavia, who was an All-SEC First-Team selection, the winner of the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, and a runner-up to Fernando Mendoza in the Heisman voting.

But now Pavia is in the NFL, awaiting training camp with the Baltimore Ravens after signing with the team as an undrafted free agent.

The task of replacing Pavia likely falls to true freshman Jared Curtis, after the Commodores stunned the recruiting world when they flipped the five-star from Georgia to Vanderbilt. But life in the SEC as a true freshman can be tough, and it gets tougher this year with the conference implementing a nine-game SEC schedule. For Vanderbilt, that includes back-to-back games at Auburn and Georgia, as well as a November stretch that includes Alabama and Tennessee at home, sandwiching a game at Florida.

Ohio State

On the offensive side of the ball, the Buckeyes are in good shape. Quarterback Julian Sayin is back after a Heisman Trophy campaign that finished with 32 touchdown passes, and a 77% completion percentage. He’ll have standout wide receiver Jeremiah Smith to target in the passing game, and running backs Bo Jackson and Isaiah West return after strong seasons. Add in veteran offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, and you have the ingredients for a tremendous offense.

The questions come on the defensive side of the ball.

After all, a ton of talent has left Columbus over the past few seasons. JT Tuimoloau, Cody Simon, Lathan Ransom, Jack Sawyer, and Ty Hamilton were all selected in the 2025 NFL Draft, and last year saw three Buckeyes — Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, and Caleb Downs — come off in the first round alone. Add in defensive tackle Kayden McDonald and cornerback Davison Igbinosun in the second round, safety Lorenzo Styles Jr. in the fifth, and defensive end Caden Curry in the sixth, and you have an entire defensive lineup gone from Ohio State in the past two years.

There is certainly potential on the roster, but Matt Patricia will have to get this unit up to speed in a hurry. Can it be the top defense in the nation yet again? That might be too much to ask for, and if the offense cannot pick up the full slack, it could be a tougher road for the Buckeyes in 2026.

Ole Miss

A dream season for Ole Miss ended a step short of the title game, with a 31-27 loss to Miami in the Fiesta Bowl.

It also ended with Pete Golding pacing the sidelines, and Lane Kiffin off to Baton Rouge.

Can Ole Miss make another dream run? Some key pieces remain in place. Golding led the Rebels to wins over Tulane and Georgia in the College Football Playoff, and there is talent coming back on the defensive side of the ball despite losing standout pass rusher Princewill Umanmielen to Kiffin and LSU. Sugar Bowl Defensive MVP Will Echoles is back at defensive tackle, as is linebacker Suntarine Perkins and cornerbacks Antonio Kite and Jaylon Braxton.

But perhaps the biggest returning piece is on the offensive side of the ball, where Trinidad Chambliss returns after a protracted fight over his eligibility. He’ll have Doak Walker Award finalist Kewan Lacy beside him in the backfield, and the interior of his offensive line back in guards Delano Townsend and Patrick Kutas, and center Brycen Sanders.

The schedule might be the toughest piece of the puzzle. After a relatively easy schedule — by SEC standards — a year ago things get much tougher in 2026. That includes opening SEC play by welcoming Kiffin back to Vaught-Hemingway, which is sure to be an event, and a trip to Florida the following week. But the ultimate benchmark comes a week before Halloween, when Ole Miss travels to Austin to take on Texas.

Add in dates with Auburn and Georgia, as well as a trip to Oklahoma, and you have a tough road ahead.

Duke

Duke shocked everyone a season ago by reaching the ACC title game despite losing five games, thanks to a complex series of tiebreakers. The surprises continued when the Blue Devils knocked off Virginia to claim the ACC championship.

But life gets harder for Duke in 2026. Gone is quarterback Darian Mensah, having transferred to Miami in controversial fashion. Incoming transfer Walker Eget comes to campus from San Jose State and brings some experience, but also a 59% completion percentage as well as nine interceptions. If Duke’s offense is going to maintain last year’s production, those numbers have to improve.

If those numbers do not improve, it will be up to Manny Diaz’s defense to take a big step forward. This is a unit that finished 14th in the ACC a season ago in points allowed per game, and 15th in the conference in yards allowed per game. Can the incoming new faces, including transfer defensive backs Evan Smith, Dylan Flowers, and Patrick Smith-Young lead that transformation?

Indiana

Heavy is the head that wears the college football crown.

After a dream run to a national championship, Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers are tasked with delivering an encore performance. The talent is certainly in place, as Cignetti dipped into the transfer portal yet again to replace the talent that departed Bloomington for the NFL, including transfer quarterback Josh Hoover from TCU to replace Fernando Mendoza, and wide receiver Nick Marsh from Michigan State.

Indiana also brought in defensive end Tobi Osunsanmi and cornerback AJ Harris via the portal, to help a defense that returns six starters from last year’s title team.

Add in Cignetti himself — all he does is win after all — and you have the recipe for a repeat.

Still, when you begin the year at the top of the mountain, there is often nowhere to go but down. And if Hoover’s turnover issues follow him to Bloomington from Fort Worth (the quarterback threw 13 interceptions a season ago, after throwing 11 during the 2024 campaign) down might be where this goes.