Daniil Donchenko vs. Theodor Berggren prediction, odds, pick for UFC Baku

We’re back with another prediction and pick for the UFC Baku: Fiziev vs. Torres as we take a look at this upcoming Prelim bout in the Welterweight (170) Division. Ukraine’s Daniil Donchenko returns against the debuting Theodor Berggren of Sweden in a short-notice scrap. Check our UFC odds series for the Donchenko-Berggren prediction and pick.

Daniil Donchenko (13-2) makes his third UFC walk following back-to-back wins over Rodrigo Sezinando and Alex Morono to open his tenure. He was slated to fight another swede in Andreas Gustafsson, who had to pull out due to medical issues, but now pivots to a debuting opponent as the stern betting favorite. Donchenko stands 5-foot-11 with a 71-inch reach.

Theodor Berggren (8-3) makes his promotional debut on short notice also riding back-to-back wins heading into this one. He’s gone 5-2 with Fight Club Rush while going 1-1 under Cage Warriors, so he’ll be looking to make a stern impression with nothing to lose during this debut appearance. Berggren stands six feet tall with a 75-inch reach.

UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Baku Odds: Daniil Donchenko-Theodor Berggren Odds

Daniil Donchenko: -500

Theodor Berggren: +380

Over 1.5 rounds: -135

Under 1.5 rounds: +105

Why Daniil Donchenko Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Alex Morono – U DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

Daniil Donchenko arrived to the UFC on a high note in taking out his opponent via TKO inside the first round during his debut. In his second appearance, he came in the massive favorite against an established UFC foe in Alex Morono, ultimately dismantling him in all areas en route to a unanimous decision win. As his stock quickly rises, Donchenko will have another chance at an exciting finish as the stern favorite heading into this one.

Although Donchenko will have to pivot opponents on short notice, his plan to overwhelm with striking and use his grappling aggressively will remain the same regardless of who he’s facing. He’s fearless in entering the pocket against other heavy hitters thanks to his defensive responsibility when doing so. While Donchenko opens up a tees off on opponents to the head and body, he’s constantly keeping his arm guard high and defending against any incoming counter shots.

During this fight, Donchenko should look to enter methodically against a long opponent like Berggren. If he has trouble with the reach at any point, Donchenko will begin working to the body in order to break Berggren down and have him dropping his guard. From there, expect the overhand strikes and high head kicks to become a factor as he opens his arsenal.

Why Theodor Berggren Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Abdulatip Samedov – TKO (punches,, R3)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Despite his relative lack of experience and still being fresh in the fight game at 26 years old, Theodor Berggren presents a very polished fighting style that stems from his timing on the feet. While he saw two-straight losses and consecutive fight cancellations during 2025, his last two KO wins have seen him turn a new leaf in terms of his preparation. Despite his underdog status, Berggren could turn this into a competitive scrap if he shows up 100% focused and ready to go.

Berggren is very aggressive in closing the distance on the feet and fights behind a frantic pace on the feet. He’s quick to crowd his opponent and keep them guessing with strikes, oftentimes mixing in his takedowns and unleashing dangerous ground strikes. He’s extremely active with his kicks to all three levels and his sprawling takedown defense has been proven solid in previous fights.

The biggest factor for Berggren will be the steep increase in competition in facing someone like Daniil Donchenko who is already taking out rostered UFC fighters one by one. He fights wise beyond his years so the though is that the bright lights won’t bother him too much in this one.

Final Daniil Donchenko-Theodor Berggren Prediction & Pick

Despite the discrepancy in the betting odds, this should turn out to be a competitive scrap as underdog Theodor Berggren doesn’t back down or shy away from heated striking exchanges. If he’s able to force Donchenko into swinging against him, he could stand a chance to land a perfect shot that sits his opponent down.

However, Daniil Donchenko has proven to be too defensively sound and his patience should be his biggest asset throughout this fight. While Berggren may threaten with chaotic blitzes and intermittent kicks, I expect Donchenko’s boxing to reign supreme during this matchup.

We’ll roll with the betting favorite in this fight, but don’t at all be surprised if Theodor Berggren is able to offer a competitive look and drag this bout further than expected.

Final Daniil Donchenko-Theodor Berggren Prediction & Pick: Daniil Donchenko (-500); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-135)

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