Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction, odds, pick for Week 13 Thanksgiving Day game

The NFL is celebrating Thanksgiving Day with an electric slate of games as we bring you our betting prediction and pick for this upcoming tilt. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) take on Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) in what should be an instant holiday classic. Check our NFL odds series for the Chiefs-Cowboys prediction and pick.

The Kansas City Chiefs are third in the AFC West following their most recent 23-20 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. They broke a two-game losing skid with the win and with games remaining against the Titans, Texans, and Raiders, they’ll be hoping to make another playoff push.

The Dallas Cowboys are second in the NFC East following their unlikely 24-21 comeback over their rivaled Philadelphia Eagles. The win was a serious sign of life for the rest of the season as the Cowboys seem to once again be fully healthy and looking for their third-straight win.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving Odds

Kansas City Chiefs: -3.5 (-105)

Dallas Cowboys: +3.5 (-115)

Over: 52.5 (-110)

Under: 52.5 (-110)

Chiefs vs. Cowboys Key Injuries 

Kansas City: TE Noah Gray (questionable, concussion) / CB Christian Roland-Wallace (questionable, back) / OG Trey Smith (doubtful, ankle)

Dallas: DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, neck) / DE Dante Fowler (questionable, shoulder) / S Malik Hooker (questionable, toe) / DT Osa Odighizuwa (questionable, elbow) / WR George Pickens (questionable, knee) / WR KaVontae Turpin (questionable, shoulder)

Chiefs vs. Cowboys Betting Trends

• The Cowboys are 3-1-1 at home. The Chiefs are 1-4 on the road.
• The Cowboys are 6-5 ATS overall, 3-2 ATS at home this season.
• The Chiefs are 5-6 ATS overall, 1-4 ATS on the road.
• The Chiefs are 2-1 in their last three meetings against the Cowboys. Dallas is 2-1 ATS in those games.
• The total has gone UNDER in Kansas City’s last six games.
• The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
• The Dallas Cowboys are 34-22-1 on Thanksgiving Day. The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-4.

Keys to Chiefs vs. Cowboys Matchup

Both teams are riding the high of a recent win as they head into the short week for this Thanksgiving Day matchup. The last few meetings between these teams have been close and while KC is 2-1 over the last three, Dallas has been able to cover the spreads. Both offenses will be healthy for the most part and the implied game total of 52.5 could be telling of a potential shootout between quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott.

The Chiefs haven’t surpassed 21 points in three-straight weeks, but their offense does a great job of keeping defenses on the field and extending drives. Dallas’ defense has been a weak point all season, ranking near the league’s bottom in rushing and receiving yards allowed, so the Chiefs could see an offensive improvement during this week. Still, their defense will be a huge focal point in stopping the run for the Cowboys.

With injuries to their receiving corps, the Cowboys may have to greatly lean on CeeDee Lamb for a superstar performance, usually on-par for his Thanksgiving performances in the past. If this turns into a high-scoring game, you have to favor the passing ability of Dak Prescott and his key receivers like tight end Jake Ferguson to keep up with the Chiefs on that front.

Given the betting odds, this shapes up to be a very competitive game between two teams in the hunt for their division. While this game could be decided in the trenches, it’ll be the play of both quarterbacks that truly drives the success of both teams.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys Prediction and Pick

Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott meeting on Thanksgiving Day has all the makings of an instant classic as both teams are hungry for a win. The Chiefs’ defense has been performing much better as a unit compared to that of Dallas, but there’s no question that the Dallas offense looks like the more capable side at the moment.

Both teams have a balanced rushing attack behind the likes of Javonte Williams and Isaiah Pacheco, but we’ve seen Chiefs’ Kareem Hunt become a huge factor near the goal line, as he has been within this scheme over the last few years. It’ll be interesting to see if the Cowboys are able to stop the Chiefs near the goal line and force them to covert field goals.

The Cowboys won’t have the same luxury as they won’t be able to settle for much besides touchdowns with key weapons within their offense potentially missing time. I think that the Dallas Cowboys have a serious chance to win this game outright, but the 3.5-point spread is very promising in the case this game comes down to a field goal.

Final Chiefs-Cowboys Thanksgiving Day Prediction and Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-115); UNDER 52.5 (-110)

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