Cavaliers vs. Raptors 2026 NBA Playoffs Game 4 prediction, odds, pick

After winning Game 3 to put themselves on the board, the Toronto Raptors will look to keep the momentum rolling and even the series with the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 4. The Raptors swept the regular season series, but Cleveland has taken a 2-1 lead in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 Eastern Conference matchup.

The Cavaliers won each of the first two games by double digits to establish a firm lead in what was expected to be the closest series of the Eastern Conference playoffs. However, Toronto returned the favor in Game 3 with a dominant 126-104 home victory to prevent the dreaded 0-3 hole.

Including the regular season, all six games between the teams this season have been decided by 10 points or more.

Despite the recent series trend, oddsmakers are expecting a much closer affair in Game 4, with the Cavaliers only given a 3.5-point edge to take a commanding 3-1 lead.

NBA Playoff odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors Game 4 odds

Cleveland Cavaliers: -3.5 (-110)

Toronto Raptors: +3.5 (-110)

Over: 221.5 (-105)

Under: 221.5 (-115)

Cavaliers vs. Raptors Game 4 key injuries

The Raptors were dealt a tough blow when they announced that point guard Immanuel Quickley would miss the remainder of the series with a reaggravated hamstring injury. He leads the team with 5.9 assists and 2.5 three-pointers made per game.

The Raptors won Game 3 without Quickley, who has yet to make his 2026 playoff debut, but they are undeniably a better team with him on the court.

Quickley’s extended absence will force Darko Rajakovic to continue rolling with Jamal Shead in his starting lineup. Shead started the series hot, scoring 17 points in Game 1, but has just five combined points in the last two installments.

Quickley is the only notable injury for either team entering Game 4. Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen is also dealing with lingering knee pain, but continues to play through it in his sixth career playoff run.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors Game 4 betting trends

• Cavaliers are 54-31 (25-16 away)
• Cavaliers are 35-50 against the spread
• Cavaliers are 9-21 against the spread as road favorite
• Cavaliers are 42-43 to the over
• Raptors are 47-38 (24-17 at home)
• Raptors are 43-42 against the spread
• Raptors are 7-6 against the spread as home underdog
• Raptors are 34-51 to the over

Keys to Cavaliers vs. Raptors Game 4 matchup

The Toronto Raptors boasted one of the best defenses in the league in the regular season, but they struggled to contain Donovan Mitchell and James Harden early on. The Mitchell-Harden duo combined to average 56.0 points and 11.5 assists in the first two games, but had just 33 points and seven assists in Toronto’s Game 3 win.

Defending the perimeter has been the Raptors’ Achilles heel all season. They allowed the eighth-fewest points in the paint per game in the regular season, but the sixth-most points to opposing guards.

Toronto responded on its home floor by picking up both Mitchell and Harden at halfcourt and trapping off ball screens to force quicker passes. In turn, the Cavaliers committed 20 turnovers, including 11 from Mitchell and Harden.

The turnovers proved to be the difference in Game 3, as did the Raptors’ 60-40 edge in the paint. Toronto has gotten a lot of recent production from rookie Collin Murray-Boyles off the bench to offset the lack thereof from Brandon Ingram.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors Game 4 prediction and pick

The Raptors had a lot of success pressuring Donovan Mitchell and James Harden in Game 3, significantly reducing their offensive effectiveness and dominating the turnover battle. Cleveland’s 20 turnovers were a stark contrast to the 14.1 they averaged in the regular season, which was the ninth-fewest in the league.

Toronto also hit 61 percent of its three-pointers to even the playing field after losing the battle behind the arc in Game 1 and Game 2. RJ Barrett led the charge from deep and ended up tying Scottie Barnes with a game-high 33 points.

The Cavaliers dominated Games 1 and 2, but they continued their struggles on the road in Game 3. Cleveland is just 25-16 on the road thus far, including a ghastly 9-21 against the spread as a home favorite.

As good as the Raptors played in Game 3, it was a perfect storm that the Cavaliers have not often allowed all season. Cleveland ranked among the best in the league at defending the paint in the regular season. The Raptors will need another nuclear shooting performance to remain within striking distance, as Mitchell and Harden will not have another game as bad as they did on Friday for the rest of the series.

Final Cavaliers-Raptors Game 4 Prediction & Pick: Cavaliers -3.5 (-110), Under 221.5 (-110)

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