The Tampa Bay Rays are one loss away from watching the Milwaukee Brewers celebrate a World Series championship.
Down 3-0 entering Game 4, Tampa Bay must win four consecutive games to become the first team in MLB history to overcome that deficit in the World Series. It is an almost impossible task, but the Rays still have a chance to make history if they can turn things around at home.
There is no complicated formula for Tampa Bay. The offense must produce, its pitching staff must find ways to limit Milwaukee's damage, and the team cannot afford to look beyond the next game. The Rays won 94 games for a reason, and they need to start playing like the team that earned its place in the World Series.
A comeback remains a long shot, but it starts with one victory. Here is what Tampa Bay must do to keep its season alive and give itself a chance to pull off the impossible.
1. The Rays' offense must carry the team
Milwaukee's offense has been too productive for Tampa Bay's pitching staff to shut it down completely. The Rays might be able to slow the Brewers for stretches, but expecting their pitchers to hold Milwaukee in check every night is not realistic. Tampa Bay needs to make their moments count, even if that means putting up six or more runs in each game.
The Rays have the hitters to make that happen. Junior Caminero needs to play like an MVP, delivering multiple hits or at least one clutch swing that changes the outcome. Yandy Diaz must set the tone, while Jonathan Aranda needs to use his power to create scoring opportunities. Liam Hicks also has to contribute at the plate, and Tampa Bay can use the speed of Chandler Simpson and Victor Mesa Jr. to put pressure on Milwaukee's defense.
The Rays cannot afford to keep waiting for their offense to break through. They have scored only seven combined runs through the first three games, and that production will not be enough to win four consecutive games against this Brewers team.
Tampa Bay needs to be aggressive, capitalize on scoring opportunities, and string together productive at-bats. The Rays do not need every player to hit a home run, but they need contributions throughout the lineup. If Caminero, Diaz, and Aranda can lead the way while the rest of the roster finds ways to get on base, the Rays have a chance to turn this series around.
2. Take advantage of The Trop
The Rays cannot spend time thinking about becoming the first team to overcome a 3-0 World Series deficit. They need to approach the situation as a split four-game series, with the first two games at home.
Game 4 is the only game that matters right now. Griffin Jax is on the mound, but Tampa Bay cannot afford to give him a long leash if he struggles. The bullpen needs to be ready, and manager Kevin Cash must be willing to make difficult decisions before Milwaukee creates another game-changing lead.
The Rays have an opportunity to use their home crowd to their advantage, even if Brewers fans made their presence felt at Tropicana Field on Monday night. Tampa Bay needs to give its supporters something to cheer about early and establish momentum before Milwaukee can settle into the game.
There is a recent postseason example of a team finding a way to beat the Brewers with its season on the line. Milwaukee's last loss came in the NLDS against the San Diego Padres, who won Game 3 at home despite being without Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon. That does not guarantee Tampa Bay will find the same result, but it shows Milwaukee can be beaten when the pressure rises.
Winning Game 4 would give the Rays another opportunity to even the series in Game 5. They cannot get ahead of themselves, though. One victory does not erase the deficit, and another loss ends their season.
3. Tampa Bay needs its best pitching performances
Article Continues BelowEven if the Rays' offense starts producing, they will need their pitching staff to deliver. Milwaukee's lineup is unlikely to disappear for four consecutive games, so Tampa Bay must find a way to keep the Brewers within reach.
If the Rays win Game 4, they will have another opportunity to use their pitching staff to extend the series. Nick Martinez and Drew Rasmussen need to deliver quality outings if Tampa Bay is going to survive the next four games. They likely won't shut Milwaukee out, but they must prevent the Brewers from building leads that force the Rays to chase the game.
The potential appearance of Jacob Misiorowski in Game 5 or Game 6 adds another challenge. I am sure Pat Murphy prefers him pitching at home. Tampa Bay cannot assume it will have an easy path against Milwaukee's pitching. The Rays must make every at-bat count and take advantage of mistakes.
That puts even more pressure on the offense to produce early. If Tampa Bay can build a lead, its pitchers can attack hitters more confidently rather than trying to survive every inning with little room for error.
Winning Games 4 and 5 would change the conversation around this series. The Rays would still need two more victories, but they would have a chance to carry momentum into Milwaukee for Game 6.
From there, it's all heart. We will see if the Rays can make history.