One of the best Monday Night Football games of the entire NFL season will take place in Week 9 when the Buffalo Bills go on the road to take on the Minnesota Vikings.
The Bills, of course, are led by Josh Allen and one of the NFL's best offenses. The Buffalo defense could use some work and is still getting some key players back from injury, but having arguably the best quarterback in the NFL on the other side gives the defense a lot of margin for error.
The Bills also come into this game at 6-1 and are the only remaining one-loss team in the AFC, so they control their own destiny for the No. 1 seed in the conference at this point. There is a big pack of teams with two losses behind them, so getting wins in these kinds of games is very important for their chase for home-field.
On the other side, the Vikings' offense has been under the microscope. Adding Kyler Murray was supposed to unlock a new level for Kevin O'Connell's group, but that didn't necessarily happen for the Vikings over the first eight weeks of the season. Now, Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury and Carson Wentz is set to get the start on Monday night.
On the other side, the Vikings have arguably the best defense in the NFL so far this season with Brian Flores running the show. That unit has led Minnesota to a 6-1 record and the top spot in a loaded NFC North.
Nobody has been able to solve the Flores puzzle yet this season. Even the Lions and their explosive offense, in the Vikings' only loss of the season, couldn't find consistent answers against the Vikings. Now, Flores and company get to test themselves against one of the league's best offenses once again.
Where can Allen and the Bills poke at the Vikings on defense, and how will Minnesota's aggressive attack cause problems for them?
Can Minnesota force Josh Allen into obvious passing situations?
While Allen is obviously the engine that makes the Bills' offense go and the reason that it feels so impossible to stop, but the running game is still the foundation that Buffalo builds everything off of. The Bills have one of the best rushing attacks in football this season, in part due to Allen but also star running back James Cook.
Entering Sunday of Week 9, the Bills rank third in rushing yards per game (148.4). Their +0.11 EPA per rush is tied for the league-best with the Kansas City Chiefs, and their 48.8% rushing success rate also ranks third in the league per Next Gen Stats.
The Bills are exceptionally good running the ball on early downs, and they do it more than anybody in the league. Buffalo has the highest first-down run rate in the NFL per Next Gen Stats, as it keeps the ball on the ground on almost two-thirds of its first down snaps. The Bills also lead the league in first-down explosive runs and first-down touchdown runs, so slowing them down on those plays will be critical for the Vikings in this game.
Minnesota, despite its generational overall defensive numbers this season, is just an above-average unit on the ground this year. The Vikings rank tied for 10th in EPA per rush allowed, and they are allowing the ninth-most yards per rush in the league. A lot of that comes from a big day from Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 8, but it's clear that the best running games in the league can get this Minnesota defense.
On first down, the Vikings rank just 10th in EPA per rush allowed, so there should be openings for the Bills to attack on the ground.
Buffalo can use the Lions' production from a week ago as evidence that it can get after this Vikings defense with early-down runs. On first down a week ago, Detroit ran for 7.1 yards per carry on 12 first-down runs in that game, finishing with a +0.24 EPA per rush on those plays. If the Bills can take advantage of that in a similar fashion, they will have plenty of chances to attack.
How does Josh Allen handle the blitz?
If you've been watching the NFL all year, you know by now that Brian Flores gets the job done with the blitz. The Vikings are blitzing on more than 73% of opposing pass plays, which is over 30% more than the Panthers in second place. Flores likes to bring the heat, and it's up to the opposing quarterback to figure out how to deal with it.
When the Vikings have brought the blitz this season, it has been very fruitful for them. Minnesota is allowing -0.19 EPA per pass when it blitzes this season, the ninth-best mark in the NFL. But it's the sack numbers that pop off the page.
When blitzing this season, the Vikings have 20 sacks, the most in the NFL. The Lions are second in the league with 12, so Minnesota is way clear of anyone else in that department.
Part of that comes from the sheer volume of blitzes that they send, but the Vikings are still posting an 11.5% sack rate when they blitz this season.
The good news for the Vikings is that Allen, as good as he has been this season while he chases yet another NFL MVP, has been pretty average against the blitz this season. His +0.03 EPA per dropback when blitzed is only the 13th-best mark in the league, and he has been sacked six times on those plays.
Allen has been willing to push the ball when blitzed, so that is something to watch out for on Monday night. 14.3% of his attempts against the blitz this season have traveled 20 or more yards, the second-highest mark in the NFL.
One thing that the Vikings do by blitzing so much is that they force your receivers to win one-on-one matchups. The Bills haven't had the talent to do so against those looks at times this season, but D.J. Moore is now back from a shoulder injury. Allen finally has his top target back, and one that he can rely on to get open no matter who is in coverage. Look for him to be a frequent target for the star QB in this game when Flores brings the heat.