Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 116

The UFC Vegas 116 Main Event is finally here as we bring you a prediction and pick for this headlining bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. Ranked contenders meet as former champion and No. 5-ranked Aljamain Sterling takes on Morocco’s No. 7 Youssef Zalal in what should be a memorable matchup. Check our UFC odds series for the Sterling-Zalal prediction and pick.

Aljamain Sterling (25-5) has gone 17-5 inside the UFC since 2014 en route to holding multiple bantamweight titles. He’s since made the move to featherweight where he’s 2-1 with wins over Calvin Kattar and Brian Ortega, hoping to replicate similar success against a rising name in the division. Sterling stands 5-foot-7 with a 71-inch reach.

Youssef Zalal (18-5-1) has gone 8-3-1 inside the UFC since 2020, beating Josh Emmett via armbar his last time out in an impressive showing. He’s on one of the UFC’s hottest winning streaks at eight fights and could emerge as a new featherweight contender if he’s able to dispose of a former champion in Sterling. Zalal stands 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 116 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 116 Odds: Aljamain Sterling-Youssef Zalal Odds

Aljamain Sterling: +105

Youssef Zalal: -125

Over 4.5 rounds: -180

Under 4.5 rounds: +140

Why Aljamain Sterling Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Brian Ortega – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 8 SUB

Aljamain Sterling looked like a championship version of himself against Brian Ortega his last time out, dominating the striking totals 153-100 while landing three of six takedowns during the five-round fight. Sterling looked a step ahead all night and this move to featherweight could have come much earlier as he’s quickly finding his niche within this weight class. Sterling was already a physical freak at 135, but this 145-pound weight cut offers him a ton of strength return and energy for another five-round battle.

Sterling also remains one of the best grapplers in the UFC regardless of division, so it’ll be interesting to see how Zalal stacks up against one of the best in his first fight against a former champ. Zalal has yet to be pushed in a five-round fight, so Sterling can certainly see an advantage late if he’s the fresher side pushing a higher pace in the fourth and fifth rounds.

Ultimately, we can expect much of the same from Sterling when it comes to his superior ground game and his constant attack in trying to take the back. His striking has only improved up to this point and he has experience against the likes of Sean O’Malley and Brian Ortega, so don’t expect him to back down wherever this fight may take place.

Why Youssef Zalal Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Josh Emmett – SUB (armbar, R1)
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 10 SUB

Youssef Zalal made quick work of Josh Emmett after neutralizing the knockout artist with his striking and quickly finishing the job with an armbar to seal the deal. With 10 submission wins, Zalal is deceptively fast in the way he’s able to lock in submissions and stifled opponents with his quick transitions on the ground. During this fight, he’ll be faced with an equally dominant grappler, but Zalal could have the slightest advantage in speed and reversing positions.

On the feet, Zalal is also very clean technically and snaps is punches without draining too much energy. He’s capable of pushing a high pace in hopes of finishing the fight, but it’ll be interesting to see how conservative he is with his output early knowing this fight can extend into the later rounds.

Ultimately, Zalal has timing on his side and if Aljamain Sterling is caught lacking at any point, Zalal will likely find the opening and finish this fight inside the distance. He should be patient enough in allowing Sterling to make his own mistakes while allowing the fight to come to him and limit his own damage.

Final Aljamain Sterling-Youssef Zalal Prediction & Pick

This is another close fight stylistically as both Sterling and Zalal are continuously improving their striking with each passing fight. Zalal has seen most of his success behind his grappling, but he’ll be facing one of the UFC’s best in terms of submission grappling and a former champion in Sterling.

While Youssef Zalal should be competing atop this division for years to come, Aljamain Sterling still offers one of the more versatile looks in this division and will certainly test Zalal on the ground. We have yet to see Sterling really bested in the grappling, so I expect that trend to continue throughout this fight.

For our final prediction, we’ll roll with Aljamain Sterling to win this fight as the talent gap could become noticeable on the ground. While Zalal is still an extremely worthy opponent, I expect Aljamain Sterling to find openings in the wrestling as he consistently works his takedowns throughout this fight.

Final Aljamain Sterling-Youssef Zalal Prediction & Pick: Aljamain Sterling (+105); OVER 4.5 Rounds (-180)

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