Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta prediction, odds, pick for UFC 328

The UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Main Card is heating up as we’re back with another prediction and pick for this upcoming bout in the Heavyweight Division. No. 2-ranked Alexander Volkov of Russia will take on No. 4 Waldo Cortes-Acosta of the Dominican Republic in a fight with title implications. Check our UFC odds series for the Volkov-Cortes-Acosta prediction and pick.

Alexander Volkov (39-11) is 13-5 during his decade-long UFC tenure since 2016, most recently beating Jailton Almeida his last time out. With a win over the division’s hottest rising prospect, Volkov could exact a title shot as the next contender in line. He stands 6-foot-7 with an 80-inch reach.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-2) is an impressive 10-2 since joining the UFC roster in 2022. The DWCS product has won three-straight over Ante Delija, Shamil Gaziev, and most recently knocking out Derrick Lewis. A win here would leapfrop his ranking and put him in line for a title shot soon. Cortes-Acosta stands 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach.

UFC 328 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 328 Odds: Alexander Volkov-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Odds

Alexander Volkov: -148

Waldo Cortes-Acosta: +124

Over 2.5 rounds: -260

Under 2.5 rounds: +195

Why Alexander Volkov Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Jailton Almeida – S DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 24 KO/TKO, 4 SUB

Alexander Volkov came into his last fight against Jailton Almeida as the +155 underdog and ended up completely out-classing the young and dangerous prospect through three rounds. While the scorecards were split in Volkov’s favor, he landed 123 total strikes to Almeida’s 27 total strikes. Almeida still managed to secure seven of nine takedowns, but Volkov more than held his own on the ground and even came up with a number of reversals in getting back to his feet.

He won’t be as occupied with defending takedowns against Cortes-Acosta as he can expect a fight taking place mostly, if not exclusively in the feet. While his opponent may be the more fluid boxer, Volkov has a knack for giving forward-pressing strikers issues with his height and reach. Expect Volkov to continuously stick his jab while also keeping Cortes-Acosta guessing with his kicking game.

Volkov has been in this spot before and he’s proven himself against rising contenders, so don’t be surprised if he’s the one leading the action throughout most of this fight. He does a great job of disrupting his opponent’s rhythm and it’ll be difficult for Cortes-Acosta to find any significant offense off him if he’s fighting at his highest level.

Why Waldo Cortes-Acosta Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Derrick Lewis – TKO (ground-and-pound, R2)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Waldo Cortes-Acosta looked like the best version of himself against Derrick Lewis, systematically picking apart the reigning knockout king by staying patient and managing the distance perfectly. Cortes-Acosta has quickly evolved into one of the smoothest strikers the Heavyweight Division has to offer. This will be the toughest test of his career thus far, but a win here would certainly solidify him as a real deal contender.

Cortes-Acosta does great work with his 1-2 combinations and if he’s able to land, usually follows things up with hooks and uppercuts in succession. He doesn’t use all of his power at once and instead hurts opponent over the course of three rounds. Once he feels the fight shifting in his favor, Cortes-Acosta is quick to finish the job with strikes over the top.

His footwork has always been a strong aspect of his fighting style and he’ll need every bit of movement in creating some space around Volkov. Cortes-Acosta has also displayed a strong chin and is tough when feeling resistance, so don’t expect him to back down at all if Volkov starts landing his offense.

Final Alexander Volkov-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction & Pick

This will be a very interesting fight between two of the division’s best as Alexander Volkov is no stranger to putting away a rising contender. Watch for his striking and distance management to be they key to success as he’ll look to mix in his leg kicks as well. Waldo Cortes-Acosta, on the other hand, will look to utilize his quick boxing hands while sticking and moving around his physically imposing opponent.

I think Volkov thrives in matchups like these and he seems to rise to the occasion against similar strikers. However, Cortes-Acosta has been getting better with his finishing abilities, so he could stand to catch Volkov slipping if he’s not careful.

Still, Cortes-Acosta has looked like the real deal up to this point and I like his activity in a three-round environment. For our final prediction, we’ll side with the underdog to get the nod on the judges’ scorecards in a razor-thin decision.

Final Alexander Volkov-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction & Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+124); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-260)

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