4 storylines to follow in Thunder-Spurs series

Only the San Antonio Spurs handed the Oklahoma City Thunder four losses during the regular season, making this year’s Western Conference Finals all the more interesting ahead of Game 1 at the Paycom Center. After the NBA announced Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his second consecutive MVP award, becoming only the 14th player to do so, he’ll face off against the Spurs’ MVP finalist, Victor Wembanyama.

Wembanyama, leading the Spurs to their first appearance in the Western Conference Finals since 2017, has reached the big stage against the defending champion Thunder. And he probably wouldn’t want it any other way, considering no other team has outplayed Oklahoma City better than San Antonio.

And with the opportunity to pull off an upset that many fans outside of Texas see as feasible against the defending champions, Wembanyama and the Spurs should make for an entertaining best-of-7 series. Unlike in the past two playoff rounds for the Thunder, the Spurs will undoubtedly snap Oklahoma City’s undefeated postseason record in the Western Conference Finals, making them the Thunder’s toughest opponent.

1. Victor Wembanyama versus Chet Holmgren

Amid his breakout season, Thunder forward Chet Holmgren earned his first All-Star selection in 2025-26. He posted 17.1 points on 55.7% shooting, 8.9 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game during the regular season. And while some of those numbers have spiked of late — 20.0 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 1.5 steals — in the Thunder’s second-round series against the Lakers, they drop drastically against Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs.

In four of the five Thunder games against the Spurs that he played in, Holmgren averaged 10.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks. As the anchor of the Thunder’s defense, Holmgren will again have his hands full guarding Wembanyama and the Spurs’ frontcourt. They keep him busy before running back up the floor to score.

Plus, the Thunder can turn to alternative scoring options outside of All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Wembanyama’s production drops a bit, too — 18.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game — but not as much as Holmgren. How the two take each other out in each game of the series will be intriguing. Holmgren and Wembanyama will always be linked as the two most promising bigs of their 2023 draft class.

2. Thunder defense against Spurs’ savvy guards

Spurs guards Stephon Castle (32 points) and De’Aaron Fox combined for 53 points in Game 6’s 139-109 win against the Timberwolves to advance to the Western Conference Finals. The Spurs’ backcourt dominated the Timberwolves on both ends of the floor, causing fits that led to fast-break opportunities and easy buckets.

The Thunder’s top-ranked defense will face its toughest backcourt yet in the Spurs’ series. Spurs’ Sixth Man of the Year, Keldon Johnson, is another source of offensive production with his ability to beat defenders off the dribble. And the same can be said about Dylan Harper, whose efficiency has turned him into one of the more reliable backup scorers.

The defending champions’ second unit has thrived throughout the postseason with exceptional performances from Jared McCain, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, and Alex Caruso. The Spurs will challenge the Thunder’s transitional defense, and if All-Defensive forward Jalen Williams isn’t cleared to play for Game 1, it could give the Spurs the upper hand.

3. 3-point shooting efficiency

With both teams shooting at a similar clip from beyond the 3-point arc, shooting could ultimately decide the outcome of more than one game in the Western Conference Finals series between the Thunder and the Spurs. The defending champions are 36.5% from deep in the playoffs. The Spurs are 35.9% from three.

Julian Champagnie’s 45.2% efficiency leads the Spurs. Stephon Castle is 44% from deep, and Dylan Harper is 37.5% from the 3-point arc throughout the postseason. For the Thunder, Jared McCain’s been elite (54.2%). Cason Wallace has also been reliable, draining 46.2% of his 3-point attempts off the bench, and Chet Holmgren is shooting just a shade under 40 percent (38.7%).

However, what will be critical is how many clean looks the Spurs and Thunder’s shooters, respectively, get throughout their best-of-7 series, and defense will dictate momentum, and pace is key.

4. Jalen Williams’ return from hamstring injury

Thunder forward Jalen Williams has been sidelined since Game 2 of the defending champions’ first-round series against the Suns. Thunder coach Mark Daigneault gave an encouraging injury update on Williams, but nothing is set in stone in terms of his availability for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.

Williams’ status is improving, meaning he will most likely make his return during the Thunder’s best-of-7 series against the Spurs, but Daigneault couldn’t say when.

“Progressing. Same stuff. I’m not going to give you the blow-by-blow on the details,” Daigneault said. “But he continues to make progress, and is doing a great job.”

While the Thunder continued its undefeated postseason without Williams, winning five straight to improve their perfect record to 8-0, the defending champions are at their absolute best when the All-NBA forward is in uniform.

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