13-year NFL veteran holds key to Fernando Mendoza Raiders success but two ‘red flags’ blight No.1 pick

Fernando Mendoza has dominated this year’s draft discussion.

The Indiana Hoosiers quarterback, who won the Heisman Trophy as he lead his school to an undefeated season and national championship glory, is the consensus top pick.

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He is expected to land with the Las Vegas Raiders, despite the fact Klint Kubiak is keeping his draft cards close to his chest.

The new head coach, who has arrived from the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, will be tasked with unlocking the Raiders’ offense and turning around a team that finished with a 3-14 record in 2025.

But someone else, who knows Las Vegas and the NFL very well, could hold the key to any success that Mendoza might have.

NFL veteran tipped to be Fernando Mendoza mentor

Despite their lack of experience, No. 1 draft picks are usually thrown in at the deep end.

Rookie quarterbacks Cam Ward, Caleb Williams and Bryce Young — the first picks in each of the last three years — were all named Week 1 starters by their teams.

But according to Rob Rang, an NFL Draft analyst for FOX Sports, Mendoza might not be elevated straight to the top of the depth chart.

Instead, he could learn behind veteran Geno Smith, who struggled in Sin City last season.

Because Smith is a scheme fit with Kubiak’s offense, he might have the chance for some early-season redemption.

“Incoming head coach Klint Kubiak was surely lured to Las Vegas by the opportunity to land the consensus top quarterback of this class,” Rang wrote.

“Unlike recent No. 1 overall selections, Mendoza does not necessarily have to start immediately.

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“The Raiders, of course, still have veteran Geno Smith, who, like Mendoza, is a clean schematic fit in Kubiak’s offense.

“Smith’s presence should allow Kubiak and the Raiders the increasingly rare opportunity to truly prepare Mendoza for the NFL, rather than rush him onto the field.

“The Heisman Trophy winner and national champion has the prototypical build, all the intangibles and enough physical traits to ultimately become a star in the NFL.”

Despite leading Las Vegas to just two wins in 2025, 13 year NFL veteran Smith could offer Mendoza the most precious of pro-football commodities — time.

And if NBC Sports writer Zachary Krueger’s assessment rings true, the rookie might need as much as he can get.

‘Red flags’ blight Fernando Mendoza draft profile

In a deep dive on Mendoza’s draft profile, Krueger noted there are two ‘red flags’ that could force the Raiders to think twice.

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He wrote: “Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is all but a lock to go to the Raiders with the No. 1 overall pick in April.

“The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner took the nation by storm when he threw for 3,535-41-6 while leading Indiana to a 16-0 record and a national championship.

“Mendoza’s draft stock has never been higher, but his inability to avoid sacks and propensity for negative plays are two glaring red flags in his analytics profile that raise questions about whether he can be the franchise quarterback the Raiders need to guide them for the next decade and beyond.”

Krueger’s article then broke down how he arrived at a formula for ‘negative play rate’ (NegPL%) and described it as the sum of all sacks, interceptions, and fumbles lost, divided by the total number of plays from a quarterback.

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“Quarterbacks who make a higher rate of negative plays hurt their team and are unlikely to last long in the NFL as a result,” he wrote, and shared a table that revealed Raiders star Smith led the NFL with a 13.4% negative play rate in 2025.

Behind him, J.J. McCarthy and Shedeur Sanders also struggled.

Krueger applied both his negative play rate, and also a pressure-to-sack rate (P2S%), to Mendoza’s final college season.

“This season, Mendoza’s negative play rate and pressure-to-sack rate improved marginally in both areas,” the article stated.

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“He finished 2025 with a NegPL% of 6.6 percent, just below the 6.8 percent national average among QBs with at least 300 dropbacks.

“Mendoza’s 18.9 percent P2S% was slightly above the national average of 16.6 percent, and while still a concerning total, it represented a slight improvement compared to his career numbers.

“That said, it’s hard to overlook how eerily similar his numbers looked in games against Power 4 opponents, which make up 13 of the 16 games he played in.”

The most striking stats, according to Krueger, came from those games against tough schools.

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He continued: “Against Power 4 teams, Mendoza’s NegPL% jumped to 8.0 percent while his P2S% rose to 21.2%.

“In the college football playoffs, which did come against some of the nation’s best teams, Mendoza had an 8.4 percent NegPL% and an abysmal 29.2 percent P2S%.”

Krueger’s piece concluded that Mendoza has the tools and talent to buck the negative plays trend in the NFL, but noted he might struggled behind a Raiders offensive line that’s currently in rough shape.

“In many ways, Mendoza thrived in a near-perfect offensive environment led by a potential coaching genius in Curt Cignetti and anchored by an offensive line composed of a redshirt senior, three redshirt juniors, and one redshirt freshman,” Krueger added.

“Now, he’s preparing to join a team where the offensive environment is likely far from perfect, which could amplify the struggles that come with being a rookie QB in the NFL.

“The addition of head coach Klint Kubiak could help with adjusting to life in the pros, but the Raiders are still entering an offseason needing to overhaul one of the worst offensive lines in football and bring in some talent to a receiver room… It’s not pretty.”

Only time will tell how Mendoza does in the NFL. He will almost certainly still be the No. 1 pick, regardless of those ‘red flags’, but might have his work cut out in Sin City.

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