Why Valkyries’ blowout of Liberty proves they’re dark horse in WNBA title chase

It’s early. Very early. And their schedule’s been favorable. Particularly when facing the juggernauts of the W. But at 3-1, four games into the season, and fresh off blowing out the New York Liberty and their league-best offense, the Golden State Valkyries have brandished a compelling early-season case for why they are the dark horse team to look out for in the WNBA title chase.

Is that a surprise? Depends on who you ask because you could have viewed their offseason with optimism or dread, as, heading into this season, the Valkyries were by far the most difficult team in the league to project; the Schrödinger’s Cat of the W.

That’s what happens when you return ten players who helped you become the first expansion team to make the playoffs, but also didn’t do enough to get a single win in the first round. Sure, they made a big splash landing star forward Gabby Williams. But they also got nothing out of the 2026 Draft (through their own volition), lost starting center Iliana Rupert for the season, and waived locker room favorite Kate Martin.

By no means was it wrong to wonder if this team could take a step back after a historic inaugural season. Real question marks hung over their heads as they entered Year Two.

However, with this 87-70 win on the road over the Liberty, the Valkyries have begun to answer those questions. They’ve begun to show why they are dangerous in the bigger picture of contention, why they are more than just the sum of their parts.

And it comes down to a very Valkyrie-esque tenet. Defense.

Defense wins championships, but not in the way you think

After Golden State’s lone loss against the Chicago Sky, Natalie Nakase made clear that the Valkyries’ identity starts and ends with their defense.

“We know we could shoot,” Nakase said. “[But] I don’t want to rely on [that]. I want to rely on our defense.”

It was a sentiment shared by Williams and Veronica Burton, with the former emphasizing that they want their defense to dictate the flow of the game. That’s been the Valkyries’ M.O. the day Nakase took the job, but it is the way they squeezed the life out of the Liberty, who entered the match having scored at least 100 points in every game this season, that calls for an examination.

But first, the basics. Golden State converted 15 New York turnovers into 17 fastbreak points. They held sharpshooter Marine Johannes, who’s been on heater to begin the season, to zero points on 0-of-5 from the field. And in the paint, they limited the Liberty’s star-studded frontcourt of Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones to a modest 34 points. Aside from them, the rest of Liberty shot 13-of-37. An all-around, very solid defensive effort.

However, if we dig into the advanced statistics, we see a defense that is uber-efficient at bludgeoning an opponent’s pace and creating extra possessions. The Valkyries’ defense forced the Liberty into a season-low 62 shot attempts and a sluggish 76.52 PACE/40, their second-lowest of the season. Perhaps not that shocking given that the Liberty aren’t the fastest team in the W. But the Valkyries’ defense has done that to teams in all four of their games this season– turned games into slogs.

The Valkyries lead the W in opponent field goal attempts, allowing a league-low 62.0 FGA a game while also averaging a league-low 75.75 PACE/40.

Golden State is solid at forcing turnovers, but not the best. They are good at limiting opponents’ shooting percentages, but again, not the best. Instead, their strength lies in how they strangle offenses into disjointed and unrhythmic outings where they can’t get up enough shot attempts to summon enough points.

Winning the possession battle

This is all while averaging 71.8 FGA a game, the third-most in the league, 10.5 offensive rebounds, the second-most in the league, and 9.3 turnovers a game, the lowest in the league. Not only are the Valkyries one of the best defenses in the league at limiting opponents’ shots on goal, but they’re also one of the best offenses at generating opportunities. It’s one of the reasons why they are mitigating the lack of a go-to creator– by creating as many scoring chances as possible.

So it is, as Nakase and Williams intimated. The Valkyries’ defense is at the heart of what’s driving their success– the possession battle.

They force opponents to play their style. For as electric as it looks when the Valkyries run in transition, something they do a lot of, they’re really a defense that strangles opposing offenses. You could see it against the Liberty. Despite the size advantage, Golden State’s physicality drained the life out of New York.

That’s what makes Golden State a dangerous dark horse. When you have a defense that makes opponents groan when they see you on the calendar, you can hang around in any game. Look at the Chicago loss, a 69-63 rock fight. Even when the offense goes in the gutter, their defense will always give them a chance to eke out a win.

Not to mention, it’s a consistent method. Teams that rely on turnovers rely on variance to an extent. But a team that deliberately junks up the pace, that’s repeatable. And controllable. And all that stuff only gets better in the playoffs, where the officiating lets you get even more physical, where you get more time to scheme up opponents.

Is a defense-first contender foolproof? Of course not. Golden State’s still got to solve some of their offensive issues, especially come playoff time. But knowing how Natalie Nakase, the players, and the rest of the organization think, they’re just scratching the surface of what they believe they can be. Only time will tell if these early-season returns will hold.

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