Why Kansas basketball is on upset alert in 2026 NCAA Tournament

Kansas basketball is entering the region of death in the NCAA Tournament. Even head coach Bill Self knows that the Jayhawks landed inside the toughest bracket there is.

“You’ve got the No. 1 overall seed in Duke. UConn that was on the one line until a day or two ago. Michigan State that was talked about as a two all month and then as hot of a five as there is anywhere in St. John’s,” Self said on Sunday via KU reporter Matt Tait.

It’s once again a loaded field. All those teams Self mentioned present their reasons for going on a Final Four.

Kansas looks ready for a Final Four run to Indianapolis. But the upset alert alarm sounds off early for these reasons.

Kansas’ Round 1 foe is no slouch

Cal Baptist is one to avoid sleeping on, especially if you’re Self and company.

Yes, CBU is a first time entrant into March Madness. And they represent one of the weaker mid-major conference in America the Western Athletic Conference.

Yet the Lancers look built to challenge KU out the gate at Viejas Arena in San Diego on Friday.

CBU crashes the boards at a high rate, ranking in the top 20 nationally there. Teams that out-rebound an opponent increase their chances to move on in the tourney. But rebounds aren’t the only strength for the WAC champs.

Cal Baptist brings one of the nation’s best three-point defenses by holding foes to 29.7% shooting there. Kansas has struggled in delivering long range baskets all season long…which could doom KU here.

Finally, health is the final concern on the side of the Jayhawks. Prized freshman Darryn Peterson is stung with ailments including cramping. Peterson has faced criticism for an inability to finish out games already. Senior Jayden Dawson is dealing with late season injuries too.

How Kansas avoids the upset

Peterson must overcome the cramping especially on this stage. Kansas looks so much faster and efficient when he’s in an attack mode. Friday will shine a light on if he can handle the bright lights of March Madness like past KU stars.

The Jayhawks must overwhelm the glass too against a consistent rebounding bunch. CBU features three forwards who average more than 5.5 rebounds a night with Thomas Ndong leading at 6.6. But Kansas has more than glass cleanup to deal with.

Dominque Daniels Jr. enters the tourney as one of the best 20-point scorers few have seen this season. The guard averages 23.2 points per night this season. The Compton, Ca., native even delivered two 40-point games during CBU’s conference title run. The 5-foot-10 guard’s floor speed will stress out Self and KU.

Kansas must find a way to pummel CBU down low. Relying on the three can swing the advantage toward the Lancers, as KU is inconsistent from long range. Kansas only routs the Lancers if its opponent is simply happy about making the field of 68. But CBU will likely feed off having a home crowd on its side and attempt to shock the world.

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