What Arch Manning’s 2025 improvement says about his NFL potential

When it comes to the 2027 quarterback class, hope springs eternal. Especially after a 2026 class that produced two first-rounders in Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, and a 2025 class that produced two in Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart, the NFL prayer is that the 2027 group of signal-callers is more like the 2024 version, when there were three taken with the first three picks, six in the top 12, and four legit NFL starters in Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix. Even the relative stragglers (Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy) haven’t run entirely out of road when it comes to their NFL potential.

Ostensibly, the 2027 class looks absolutely ridiculous from a tools and potential perspective. We could have Texas’ Arch Manning, Oregon’s Dante Moore, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker, Notre Dame’s C.J. Carr, and Texas Tech’s Brendan Sorsby (depending on how Sorsby is affected by recent gambling allegations) all fighting to rest atop next year’s QB draft listings, and there are ways in which each one could do it. Not to mention the fact that there will be a surprise interloper who comes out of nowhere to show NFL potential.

That’s at least eight quarterbacks for NFL teams to consider next year. Of course, we also know that not every sure-thing prospect will ultimately become that even before he’s drafted; we’ve all seen the super-hyped guys fall down when they get hit without a plan.

The idea with this series is to evaluate each of the prominent future prospects with one eye on what they’ve already done, and the other on what they need to do in order to reach their ultimate ceiling. Let’s start with Arch Manning, the Promised Son who showed all kinds of improvement in his first season as an NCAA starter.

Manning had just 103 dropbacks in his first two seasons with the Longhorns, and things were rough to begin the 2025 season as a result. From Weeks 1-7, he completed 102 of 163 passes (62.6%) for 1,317 yards (8.1 YPA), 12 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 99.7. There was talk early in the season as to whether head coach Steve Sarkisian should bench Manning for his own good, but Sark wasn’t biting.

“I don’t know if any college player has kind of gone through what he went through before he even was the full-time starter,” Sarkisian said. “Part of that is his last name, part of it is our brand. I think those two things coming together made this such a big storyline before the season, and but none of it was anything due to what Arch was doing. He just kind of kept focusing on what he needed and tried to do.”

Well, eventually it kicked in. From Week 8 through Texas’ win over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl, Manning completed 146 of 245 passes (59.6%) for 1,846 yards (7.5 YPA), 14 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 98.8. This was against Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Michigan — there were no San Jose State, UTEP, or Sam Houston State breaks in the action as there were in the first half of the season.

By the end of his first full campaign as a starter, Manning looked like what that’s supposed to look like for the most part, and there was no more talk regarding whether he should be benched or not, as there was after the Kentucky game in Week 8, when he completed 12 of 27 passes for 132 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 59.5.

From then on, the improvements began. So, what is Arch Manning’s skill set now, and where does he need to take steps forward in 2026?

Arch Manning’s pocket movement

Even in his more regrettable moments early in the 2025 season, Manning’s movement within the pocket — his ability to move and re-set to throw in the small boxing ring of the pocket — was an alpha skill. He’s going to get all kinds of Joe Burrow comparisons because of it, and those comps will not be wrong if the ascent continues. Burrow is the NFL’s best pocket mover at this time — he inherited the crown from Tom Brady, the best pocket mover in football history — and there’s a lot about Manning’s pocket movement that translates at nearly that level right now.

Last season from within the pocket and under pressure, Manning completed 45 of 97 passes for 609 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 86.7. As the season progressed, Manning became far more poised and comfortable with subtle movement under pressure, because he trusted those movement skills — and he was absolutely right to do so.

Winning outside the pocket

Unlike Peyton and Eli, Arch’s mobility is more than a casual thing, or a “Break Glass In Case of Emergency” consideration. As such, his work outside the pocket when pocket movement didn’t work was effective — especially when he let things play out as opposed to running at the first sign of a compressed pocket (more on this later). When throwing outside the pocket in 2025, he completed 31 of 63 passes for 435 yards, six touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 97.0. From Week 8 on, when the opponents became more formidable, he completed 16 of 33 passes for 210 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 108.6. Once Manning is more conversant with letting routes progress, this will be even more of an asset.

Arch Manning under pressure

Manning also looked a lot better as the season progressed when pressured, through the metrics didn’t jump out of the building — this is another case where you have to consider the opponents. He was less balky, less prone to bad decisions, and more easy with his reads against some really tough competition, and this bodes very well for his future.

Going through progressions

Manning did also become more integrated in the offense when going through progressions in the second half of the season. From Weeks 1-7, when working to at least the second read, he completed 39 of 71 passes for 394 yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 81.5. From Week 8 on when making those throws, he completed 47 of 91 for 385 yards, five touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 76.4. Manning is developing the ability to consistently work through progressions to exploit the easy openings designed, and that needs to continue, because we all know that you never go broke taking a profit.

Arch Manning can win as a runner

And here’s where we see something we’ve never really seen from a Manning before. Yes, Archie ran the ball 384 times for 2,197 yards and 18 touchdowns in his 13-year career, but those were mostly scrambles — NFL people didn’t really have QB run game designs back in the 1970s beyond power draws. Peyton ran 431 times for 667 yards and 18 touchdowns in his 17-year career, and Eli ran 315 times for 567 yards and seven touchdowns in his 16-year career.

Arch, on the other hand, isn’t “deceptively fast” — this is a guy around whom you can built that type of QB run stuff. Not to the extent of a Lamar Jackson or a Jalen Hurts, but certainly credibly. Last season, he ran 80 times for 519 yards and 10 touchdowns, including 10 carries for 155 yards and two touchdowns against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. The big plays were pretty equally divided between scrambles and designed runs, so this is definitely a thing. Does he lean on scrambles too much at this point in his development? Yes, but any offensive coordinator would like to take the raw tools to the next level, because it’s an intriguing addition to the Manning skill set.

What still needs work?

Occasionally, when under pressure and not, Manning will get a bit loose with his mechanics, and easy passes will fly where they shouldn’t. He also needs a bit of development in optimal velocity; there are times when he’s throwing fastballs when sliders are the order of the day, and vice versa.

And while Manning can be an incredibly productive scrambler at times, you’d also like him to read things out from clean pockets before taking the ball himself. There are things he gets away with at the college level in that regard that may not be so easy in the NFL.

So, no… Arch Manning isn’t entirely ready for the NFL, and that’s why it made all the sense in the world for him to return to Austin for another season. And if he’s able to bank the improvement he showed in the second half of the 2025 season and start from there, he could indeed be QB1.

If not? Well, that would turn the top of the 2027 QB class into open season.