Venezuela vs. Dominican Republic prediction, odds, pick for 2026 World Baseball Classic

It is a winner-take-all game in Pool D of the World Baseball Classic as Venezuela faces off with the Dominican Republic. It is now time to continue our World Baseball Classic odds series with a Venezuela-Dominican Republic prediction and pick.

Venezuela comes into the game at 3-0 in pool play. They opened up pool play against the Netherlands. Luis Arraez got the scoring started with an RBI single in the first inning. The Netherlands would tie the game in the top of the second, but a home run in the bottom of the inning by Javier Sanoja broke the tie. Venezuela would add four runs in the fifth inning on the way to a 6-2 victory. They then face off with Israel and start strong. Arraez, Salvador Perez, and Eugenio Suarez all drove in runs in the first inning, as they led 4-0. Arrez would add two more home runs in the game, driving in another four runs as Venezuela went on to win the game 11-3.

Venezuela last faced Nicaragua. Jackson Chourio drove in a run on a sacrifice fly in the first to open the scoring. Ronald Acuna Jr. would hit a home run in the third and drive in another run in the fifth on the way to a 4-0 victory for Venezuela.

Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic is also 3-0 in pool play. They opened pool play with a massive win against Nicaragua. While Nicaragua scored in the top of the first inning, the DR responded with two runs in the bottom of the first. Nicaragua would take the 3-2 lead in the top of the second, but then the Dominican took off. They tied the game in the third inning, and with the help of three home runs, went on to win 12-3 in eight innings.

They would then face the Netherlands. Valdamir Guerrero Jr. and Manny Machado drove in runs in the first to make it 2-0. After the Netherlands made it a one run fame in the second, Guerrero hit a two-run shot to open up the game. The game would end on a two-run home run by Juan Soto in the seventh inning, invoking the mercy rule and leading to a 12-1 victory. The Dominican Republic last faced Israel. Once again, the Dominican took an early lead, with the help of a Fernando Tatis Jr. grand slam in the second inning. Oneil Cruz added a solo shot in the fourth, and Tatis added another two RBIs in the eighth as the Dominican went on to win the game 10-1.

Both teams will be advancing to the knockout round, but the game may prove huge for the future. The winner of this game will face South Korea in the knockout round, while the loser has to face Japan.

World Baseball Classic Odds provided by DraftKings. 

Venezuela vs. Dominican Republic Odds

Venezeula: +2.5 (-120)

Dominican Republic: -2.5 (+100)

Over: 11 (-110)

Under: 11 (-115)

Venezuela vs. Dominican Republic Key Injuries

Venezuela-  Jackson Chourio was hit by a pitch in early March, but has since played. Andres Giminez has also played since being hit by a pitch.

Dominican Republic-  Geralado Perdomo previously missed time due to illness, but is back with the team.

Keys to Venezuela vs. Dominican Republic Matchup

Eduardo Rodriguez will be taking the mound for Venezuela in this game. The Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher was slightly down in 2025, going 9-9 with a 5.02 ERA. His major struggle was a spike in his home run per nine-inning rates to the highest of his career. He was also giving up over ten hits per nine innings, which was the highest of his MLB career as well. E-Rod struggled with command in 2025, and if he struggles in this one, it will spell doom for Venezuela.

Rodriguez will face the best offensive unit in the WBC. The Dominican leads the tournament in RBIs, batting average, and OPS. Valdimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .375 with a home run and six RBIs. Meanwhile, Junior Caminero has hit .400 with two home runs and five RBIs. Oneil Cruz has had limited at-bats, but he’s hitting a perfect 1.00 with two home runs and four RBIs, mainly coming off the bench. Finally, Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .500 with a home run and six RBIs.

Meanwhile, Sandy Alcantara will be on the mound for the Dominican Republic. He won the National League Cy Young in 2022, but struggled in 2023 before being injured and missing all of 2024. The Miami Marlins pitcher returned in 2025, going 7-12 with a 4.14 ERA. He also struggled to keep players off base last year, with a 1.271 WHIP, one of the highest marks of his career. Meanwhile, his home run rate continued to climb, which could lead to Venezuela hitting the long ball.

Venezuela has hit well in the WBC, hitting .297 with a .365 OBP and a .495 slugging. Luis Arraez has been amazing, hitting .545 with two home runs and seven RBIs. Meanwhile, Salvador Perez has been getting on base, hitting .333, but without a home run and just one RBI. Ronald Acuna Jr. has also been solid, as he is hitting .400 with a home run and two RBIs. Finally, Jackson Chourio is hitting .333, but has just one RBI.

Venezuela vs. Dominican Republic Prediction and Pick

Neither pitcher in this game was good last year. Still, both teams’ pitching has been great overall. Venezuela has a team ERA of 1.33, which is the second best in the WBC. Meanwhile, the Dominican sits fourth at a 1.80 ERA. Both teams have also given up two home runs and have WHIPs under 1.00. Regardless, neither of them has faced an offense at the level of their opponent. The Dominican is the highest-scoring team in the WBC, while playing one less game. Venezuela sits sixth in RBIs. The biggest difference is the depth of the lineup. Any batter in the Dominican lineup can take the ball deep and change the game. Venezuela does not have that same depth. This game is going to see plenty of runs, but Venezuela does not have enough to hold the mighty Dominican Republic down.

Final Venezuela vs. Dominican Republic Prediction and Pick:  Dominican Republic -2.5 (+100) and Over 11 (-110)

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