USC bubble watch: Trojans’ NCAA Tournament resume after Big Ten tourney exit

Few teams entered conference tournament season in a bigger must-win position than USC, which saw its March Madness odds tumble in the final month of the 2025-2026 college basketball season. The Trojans desperately needed a win over Washington in the Big Ten Tournament, but instead suffered their eighth consecutive loss.

USC’s 2025-2026 college basketball season seemed to be on the right track early in the year after it got off to a 12-1 start, which included quality wins over Arizona State and Oregon. The Trojans’ entire season changed with a 30-point loss to Michigan on Jan. 2, which marked the beginning of the end. They went just 6-12 in their final 18 regular-season games, entering the Big Ten Tournament with a meager 18-13 record.

USC remained in the March Madness conversation at the beginning of February, albeit on shaky legs. But everything truly fell apart over the final month of the regular season, which saw the Trojans lose their last seven regular season games and end the year by kicking out leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara.

The Baker-Mazara drama highlighted locker room issues that clearly tore the team apart well before the results began to show up on its record. Frustrated fans are already calling for head coach Eric Musselman’s job just two seasons into his tenure in Los Angeles.

USC suffers brutal season-ending loss in Big Ten Tournament

As poorly as everything looked, USC still had one final gasp to thrust itself back into the March Madness picture with a few wins in the Big Ten Tournament. They appeared to be off to the right start against Washington before everything fell apart at the end, yet again.

USC got out ahead of the Huskies early, taking a seven-point lead into halftime. Emerging freshman Alijah Arenas struggled, but fifth-year guard Kam Woods got them off to a great start in a must-win game.

But despite its strong start, USC could not keep it together in the second half. Washington guard Zoom Diallo scored 15 of his 22 points after the break to close the gap and eventually take the lead. The Huskies out-scored the Trojans 50-39 in the second half and overtime to steal an 83-79 win and advance to round two.

Regardless of what happens next, USC’s loss to Washington dropped it to 18-14 on the year and winless since Feb. 8. The first-round exit seemingly booted them out of the NCAA Tournament picture and likely back to the College Basketball Crown for the second consecutive year, whether they like it or not.

USC’s 2026 March Madness resume

USC is the epitome of how quickly the college basketball landscape can change in just a matter of weeks. The Trojans were a bubble team as recently as a few games ago, but are now left off most NCAA Tournament projections as their entire program appears to be in shambles.

If the committee takes USC into consideration at all, it will be on strength of schedule alone. The Trojans played the 30th-most difficult schedule, according to KenPom, but won only one of their 10 Quad 1 games. They were 1-9 against Quad 1 opponents and 7-4 against Quad 2, per the NET Rankings.

USC might have had a long-shot plea in previous years, but the 2025-2026 college basketball season is uniquely unforgiving to power conference bubble teams. The West Coast Conference will send three teams to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2012, and Miami (OH)’s recent loss likely gives the MAC two teams in the Big Dance.

The rare terrain has more deserving teams like SMU, Ohio State, Missouri and UCF praying for an at-large bid. Allowing USC into the field, given the current context, would spark a small riot, especially if it comes at Miami (OH)’s expense.

With the Pac-12 reforming in the summer, USC might be best suited to try and fight its way back into its old conference to have its best chance of returning to the March Madness scene. The Trojans are just 35-32 in two years in the Big Ten, both under Musselman.

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