Timberwolves vs. Spurs 2026 NBA Western Conference Semifinals Game 5 prediction, odds, pick

The Minnesota Timberwolves were in danger of going down 3-1 to the San Antonio Spurs in their second-round series, but they rallied in the fourth quarter and pulled off a 114-109 upset to square the series at 2-2. While the Timberwolves got a major break when Victor Wembanyama was ejected early in the second quarter, they would not have been able to come away with the win if not for a sensational fourth quarter.

Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards was the driving force in Minnesota’s 34-25 advantage in the final 12 minutes. The Timberwolves were teetering on the brink of their second straight home loss when Edwards simply said no.

Minnesota was down by eight points early in the fourth quarter when Edwards went on his tear. He hit a drive and a jumper and then connected on a pair of three-point shots and the Wolves suddenly found themselves in the lead.

Instead of succumbing to San Antonio’s speed and defensive pressure, Chris Finch’s Timberwolves continued to press forward. Edwards hit another put back and his teammates did enough to hang on and earn the victory.

The victory was a moment to celebrate, but just for an instant. The deciding games in the series are ahead, beginning with Game 5 Tuesday night in San Antonio. The Spurs are double-digit favorites at home and they will have Wembanyama back in the lineup. He has a avoided a suspension after delivering an elbow to the jaw of Naz Reid. It was a hard shot and he meant to clear space, but he probably did not mean to cause a serious injury.

Coming away with a victory on the road will be a major hill to climb for the Timberwolves.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Odds

Minnesota Timberwolves: +10.5 (-115)

San Antonio Spurs: -10.5 (-105)

Over: 218.5 (-108)

Under: 218.5 (-112)

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Injuries

Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards (left knee) will play

San Antonio Spurs: De’Aaron Fox (right ankle) is questionable

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Betting Trends

• The Timberwolves had a 48-33 regular-season record.
• The Timberwolves are 36-45 ATS during the regular season.
• The Timberwolves are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.
• The Timberwolves are +320 (bet $100 to win $320) on the money line.
• The Spurs had a 62-19 regular-season record.
• The Spurs are 8-4 straight up in their last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves.
• The Spurs are 45-35-2 ATS this season, including the postseason.
• The Spurs are -410 (bet $410 to win $100) on the money line.

Keys to Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 5 Matchup

The Timberwolves came up with a gutsy win in Game 1 when they pulled off the upset in San Antonio, but the Spurs responded with a pair of solid victories in Games 2 and 3. It seems they were likely headed for another significant triumph in Game 4 until Wembanyama got himself ejected.

The loss of the San Antonio’s young superstar did not mean that the Timberwolves would get the win. San Antonio has played and won multiple games without Wembanyama, including in the first-round series against the Portland Trail Blazers. The Spurs turn up the defense without Wemby and depend on Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie to get the job done.

There is no panic, just speed, hustle and effort. It would have been enough if Edwards had not finished like a champion and scored 36 points. If the Timberwolves are going to have a chance against San Antonio’s full complement, they are going to need Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert and Ayo Dosunmu to play their best game of the series.

Even then, it may not be enough unless the Spurs suddenly start to struggle.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

The Spurs have their eyes on a matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals. Those two teams have been on a collision course since the start of the season. The Spurs had a slip-up in Game 1 and could not survive Edwards’ magnificent performance in Game 4. However, they are the stronger team and they are motivated to win at home and they have shown they can put distance between themselves and the Timberwolves.

Head coach Mitch Johnson should be able to have his team at a fever pitch. A win at home is within their grasp and it must be achieved if the Spurs are going to get a chance to play the Thunder in the Western Finals. A loss at home would not finish the Spurs, but it would create doubt. That is very unlikely.

Wembanyama had 39 points and 15 rebounds in Game 3 of the series, and a game like that would be too much for the Timberwolves to overcome. The Spurs should have multiple avenues to victory in this game and it would be quite shocking if Minnesota was to find a way to come away with the upset on the road.

Final Timberwolves-Spurs Prediction & Pick: San Antonio Spurs -10.5 (-105); OVER 218.5 (-108). 

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