Senegal vs Iraq predictions and betting tips – Must-win match in Toronto

Neither Senegal nor Iraq have a single point to their name after two rounds of fixtures at World Cup 2026, so anything other than a victory in this head-to-head clash would not be enough for a place in the round of 32.

Will Senegal collect maximum points in Canada, or can Iraq spring a surprise to remain in contention for the knockout phase?

• Senegal -1.5 Asian handicap – 8/11 with SBK
• Senegal half-time/full-time – 8/11 with Betfred
• Ibrahim Mbaye to score or assist – Evens with BetMGM

Senegal vs Iraq head to head overview

• Date: Friday 26th June.
• Kick-off: 8pm.
• Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, Canada.
• Where to watch: ITV4 and ITVX. 
• Referee: Anthony Taylor.
• VAR: Yes.
• Last meeting: Never played before.
• Favourite to win: Senegal.

Senegal vs Iraq predicted lineups

• Senegal expected lineup: Mendy; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diouf; Mbaye, I. Gueye, P. Gueye, Mane; Sarr, Jackson.
• Iraq expected lineup: Fadhil; H. Ali; Tahseen, Hashem, Doski; Ismael, Al-Ammari, Iqbal; Qasem, M. Ali, Bayesh.

Senegal vs Iraq predictions

The knockout phase has come early for Senegal and Iraq at World Cup 2026, with both teams facing elimination unless they win on Friday.

Even a victory would not necessarily save them. Three points and a respectable goal difference would probably be sufficient to reach the round of 32 as a third-place finisher, but Senegal on -3 and Iraq on -6 both have work to do.

Deep down, Iraq probably expected to be in this position. The draw was not kind to them on their first World Cup appearance since 1986, and no one really predicted they would get anything from meetings with Norway and France.

Senegal will be more disappointed with their start. They held their own against France in the first half of their opening match, only to be undone by the opposition’s superior star power in the second period.

The subsequent 3-2 defeat by Norway was frustrating, though. Senegal did not do enough to force the issue when they were level. There was a rally in the closing stages, but it was a case of too little, too late.

Renowned for their solid defence on the continental stage, Senegal’s backline has struggled at the higher level of a World Cup. In particular, Kalidou Koulibaly – one of the world’s best centre-backs at his peak – is clearly past his best at 35.

All is not lost for the Lions of Teranga. At the last European Championship, where four third-place finishers went through to the knockout phase, three points and a goal difference of -2 would have been good enough to progress. 

If the same is true this summer, any sort of victory on Friday would extend Senegal’s stay in North America.

Senegal vs Iraq betting tips

Will Senegal or Iraq come out on top when the two teams go head-to-head in Group I?

Senegal to get going?

In hindsight, Iraq may wish they had put more emphasis on their defensive organisation against Norway on matchday one.

The Lions of Mesopotamia had some bright moments going forward in their first World Cup outing of the 21st century, but they were too open at the back. After two three-goal defeats, their goal difference does not make for positive reading.

Senegal may not be able to match the margin of Norway and France’s victories over Iraq, but they should end this game two goals better off than Graham Arnold’s side, as Venezuela also did in a pre-tournament friendly.

Bear in mind, too, that eight of Senegal’s last 10 wins have been by two clear goals or more.

Back Senegal with a -1.5 Asian handicap at 8/11 with SBK

Tough test for Iraq

A quick start to Friday’s match will be crucial for both teams, especially Senegal as the favourites.

If Pape Thiaw’s team can get ahead in the first 20 or 25 minutes, their task will be made much easier. 

Iraq have been behind at the interval in both their Group I games to date. In only one of their last nine matches have they held a lead with 45 minutes on the clock.

Senegal have not yet shown their best side at this competition, but this is a golden opportunity for them to get off the mark – and we expect them to do it reasonably comfortably.

Tip Senegal/Senegal in the half-time/full-time market at 8/11 with Betfred

Mbaye in from start?

Ibrahim Mbaye came off the bench to score against France in Senegal’s first game of the summer.

Mbaye also made an impact as a second-half substitute in the 3-2 loss to Norway, and the 18-year-old is now pushing for a first World Cup start.

There is no guarantee that Mbaye will be in the XI, but he has certainly done enough in his cameo appearances to earn a place in the team.

Even if he is a substitute at first, the Paris Saint-Germain starlet has the quality to impact the game in the final third.

Go for Ibrahim Mbaye to score or assist at evens with BetMGM

Senegal vs Iraq latest odds

Find the latest Senegal vs Iraq betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

More World Cup 2026 predictions

We have plenty more World Cup 2026 predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

Important historical facts about Senegal and Iraq for betting

Senegal have not kept a clean sheet at the World Cup since 2002. In their last six defeats, Iraq have failed to score in five of them.

Senegal are looking to avoid what would be a first run of three defeats in a row since January 2012.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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