Texas vs Purdue odds, predictions and betting tips – Boilermakers aiming to build on their momentum

After dethroning Michigan in the Big Ten Conference Championship, the Purdue Boilermakers are getting hot at just the right time, leading the league in most offensive metrics.

Their resurgence has helped spark a run in the NCAA Tournament, now getting the benefit of facing off against Texas who severely struggles in coverage.

Speaking of the Longhorns, they are the last double digit seed remaining in the field after putting away Gonzaga in the round of 32. Unfortunately for Texas, their “Cinderella” run is expected to come to an end in the Sweet Sixteen, as they lack the production that is needed on defense to slow down the Boilermakers versatile offense.

Texas vs Purdue best bets

• Purdue to cover the -6.5 spread: -110 with BetMGM
• Braden Smith over 9.5 assists: +100 with BetMGM
• Dailyn Swain over 16.5 points: -107 with Caesars

Heading into the Sweet Sixteen, the Purdue Boilermakers are firing on all cylinders, leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Rating. Braden Smith’s facilitation has helped create more space for his spot up shooters to exploit, improving the quality of their shot attempts at multiple levels of the court.

With the Longhorns ranking near dead last in Havoc, Smith will be able to continue to dissect the defense, leading to a higher volume of Assist Opportunities. When shifting the defense to his liking, Purdue will be able to capitalize on their higher quality shot attempts, increasing their chances of pulling away on the scoreboard to help cover the spread.

Especially with Purdue’s defense starting to give them the production they need to be a well rounded unit, ranking in the top-40 in Adjusted Defensive Rating. With clear advantages on both sides of the court, expect Purdue to win in dominating fashion and punch their ticket to the Elite 8.

Texas vs Purdue preview

As alluded to earlier, the Longhorns lack of production on defense has been a constant thorn in their side this season, ranking near the bottom of the board in Havoc and in Turnovers Allowed. With Texas incapable of creating Disruptions, opposing offenses have been able to break away from their underwhelming coverage and attack the rim at a high rate.

A low level of play the Longhorns can ill afford to replicate against Purdue as the Boilermakers will punish their lack of interior defense, allowing them to set a scoring pace way too fast for them to keep up with. Especially with Smith leading the offense, using his facilitating abilities to create wider gaps in the Longhorns coverage when they are forced to shade their helpside defenders towards him.

Texas vs Purdue tips

Find the latest odds for Texas vs Purdue courtesy of BetMGM. Odds are subject to change.

With Purdue listed as a sizable favorite per the current spread, expect the Boilermakers to cruise to a victory while Smith generates assists at a high rate. In an attempt to match their output, Dailyn Swain will be utilized at a heavier rate, leading to a higher volume of scoring opportunities.

Purdue to cover -6.5

Since the start of the NCAA Tournament, Purdue has had no issue with pulling away on the scoreboard, beating their two opponents by at least +10. Even with their defense still attempting to round back into competitive form, their high powered offense helps mask their struggles on the other end.

With the Longhorns incapable of slowing down the Boilermakers, they will find themselves quickly behind, digging themselves too deep into a hole for them to claw out of. Especially with their guards incapable of creating Havoc, allowing Purdue to go through their sets, resulting in a high quality look at the rim.

Back Purdue to cover -6.5 at -110 with BetMGM Sportsbook

Braden Smith over 9.5 assists

Averaging 9.0 Assists per game, Braden Smith has been the catalyst of the Boilermakers offense, setting his teammates up for success when he pulls defensive attention towards him. His legacy was cemented in the history books when he broke the record for all time Assists in a collegiate career.

In their Sweet Sixteen matchup against Texas, Smith should continue to generate assists at a high rate by exposing a Longhorns defense who struggles in coverage. With Texas forced to shade their guards towards Smith, the width of his teammate’s lanes to the rim will widen, creating an assist opportunity when they slash through the middle.

Back Smith to dish out over 9.5 assists at +100 with BetMGM Sportsbook

Dailyn Swain over 16.5 points

On the other end of the court, Dailyn Swain has been the Longhorns main source of scoring, averaging 17.4 Points per game while shooting 35.2% from three and 54.5% from the field. His production has helped elevate the Longhorns offense, leading a unit who ranks 25th in Adjusted Offensive Rating.

With Purdue struggling to face guard, Swain will be able to operate in the middle for the full duration of the contest, resulting in a higher volume of shots near the rim. If you want to increase your exposure on Swain, escalator bet his points prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.

Back Swain to score over 16.5 Points at -107 with Caesars Sportsbook

Texas vs Purdue injury report

Below are the key injuries to monitor for Texas and Purdue heading into the Sweet Sixteen.

Texas Longhorns

• Out: N/A
• Questionable: Lassina Traore (forward) – knee
• Doubtful: N/A

Purdue Boilermakers

• Out: N/A
• Questionable: C.J. Cox (guard) – knee
• Doubtful: N/A

Texas vs Purdue game info

• Date: Thursday, March 26th
• Time: 7:10pm EST
• Venue: SAP Center at San Jose – San Jose, California
• Where to watch: CBS

About the author

Kody Malstrom

Kody Malstrom is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with six years of experience covering a vast majority of sports. He covers football, basketball, hockey, baseball, and the UFC in written and video form.

Born and raised in Michigan, Kody is a Detroit sports fan who spends all of his Sundays in the fall rooting for the Detroit Lions and Saturdays watching as much College Football as possible. In the winter, he shifts his focus to the Detroit Red Wings and Pistons while simultaneously rooting for his North Carolina Tar Heels.

When he is not staring at betting markets, you can find Kody at the beach or snowboarding down a mountain, depending on the time of the year.

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