Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan prediction, odds, pick for UFC 323

UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 continues on the prelims with a fight between Terrance McKinney and Chris Duncan in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our McKinney-Duncan prediction and pick.

Terrance McKinney (17-7) rides a two-fight surge into UFC 323, starching Damir Hadzovic with first-round ground-and-pound before snatching a mounted guillotine on Viacheslav Borshchev in under a minute. The explosive lightweight now owns 15 first-round finishes as he comes into his fight this weekend against Chris Duncan.​

Chris Duncan (14-2) enters UFC 323 hot off a gutsy decision win over Mateusz Rebecki in August and a second-round guillotine submission of Jordan Vucenic in March. The Scottish lightweight has shown resilience and finishing ability as he comes into his fight this weekend against Terrance McKinney.

Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 323 odds: Terrance McKinney-Chris Duncan odds

Terrance McKinney: +136

Chris Duncan: -162

Over 1.5 rounds: +260

Under 1.5 rounds: -360

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Why Terrance McKinney will win

• Last Fight: (W) Viacheslav Borshchev – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1 
• Finishes: 17 (8 KO/TKO/7 SUB)

Terrance McKinney has the kind of explosive, round-one kill switch that can punish Chris Duncan’s hittable defense at UFC 323. With 15 first-round finishes on his record, McKinney’s length, speed, and southpaw power give him a clear opportunity to catch Duncan before the Scot can settle into his pressure game.​

On the feet, McKinney throws sharp straight lefts and high kicks down the middle, precisely the tools that can disrupt Duncan’s tendency to come forward on a straight line. If Duncan bites on feints or overextends on combinations, McKinney can counter with clean shots or level-change underneath into takedowns.​

The wrestling and submission edge also lean toward McKinney, who has repeatedly shown a dangerous front-choke series once he gets opponents scrambling. Duncan has been forced to fight off his back and give up positions in past bouts, and any sloppy shot or scramble could see McKinney locking up a tight guillotine or rear-naked choke.​

Cardio questions for McKinney matter less in a matchup where his best win condition is early, controlled chaos. Expect him to start fast, push a pace Duncan is uncomfortable with, and either find a highlight-reel knockout or opportunistic submission within the first two rounds on Saturday night.​

Why Chris Duncan will win

• Last Fight: (W) Mateusz Rebecki – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 10 (7 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Chris Duncan has the exact kind of durability, composure, and well-roundedness to survive Terrance McKinney’s early storm and flip this fight late at UFC 323. The Scot rides a three-fight win streak, including a gritty upset over Mateusz Rebecki that showcased his ability to weather pressure and adjust mid-fight.​

McKinney is at his most dangerous in the opening minutes, but his cardio and durability have repeatedly dipped once opponents push him past that early kill window. Duncan, by contrast, has shown strong conditioning, solid defense, and a willingness to grind through adversity, which plays perfectly into a game plan of dragging McKinney into deeper waters.​​

Technically, Duncan brings underrated power in his hands and a proven submission threat, particularly with his guillotine, which he has locked up multiple times in the UFC. If McKinney shoots desperation takedowns after his initial burst fades, Duncan can punish him with sprawls, front-headlock attacks, and punishing counters on the break.​

Once the pace evens out, Duncan’s tighter boxing, steadier output, and greater resilience should start to tell. Expect McKinney to be dangerous early, but the lean is Duncan by late TKO or club-and-sub style finish after forcing McKinney into another high-pace, gas-draining war.​

Final Terrance McKinney-Chris Duncan prediction & pick

This matchup is one of the clearest “boom-or-bust” spots on the UFC 323 card, with McKinney’s early explosiveness pitted against Duncan’s durability and late-round reliability. The betting market leans Duncan as a moderate favorite, reflecting greater trust in his ability to navigate adversity over three rounds.​

Early, McKinney is live to blow this open with speed, power, and aggressive wrestling, especially given his massive edge in average fight time and first-round finish rate. However, if Duncan survives the initial five to seven minutes, the momentum profile flips, as his leg kicks, body work, and steadier cardio tend to shine in extended fights.​​

Duncan’s willingness to pressure, his improved defense, and his proven resilience against hard hitters are key reasons many analytics models edge his side. He can chip away at McKinney’s base, force longer exchanges, and capitalize once McKinney’s output and reactions slow, either by outworking him to a decision or pouring on volume for a late stoppage.​

Given the odds, cardio trends, and stylistic dynamics, the slight lean is toward Chris Duncan to weather a rough early storm and then take over. Expect McKinney to threaten early, but Duncan’s toughness and consistency likely carry him to a comeback TKO or submission win on Saturday night.​

Final Terrance McKinney-Chris Duncan Prediction & Pick: Chris Duncan (-162), Under 1.5 Rounds (-360)

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