Rodolfo Vieira vs. Eric McConico prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 116

The UFC Vegas 116 Prelims will conclude as we present our prediction and pick for this featured bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. Brazil’s Rodolfo Vieira will take on California’s Eric McConico in what should be a competitive tilt. Check our UFC odds series for the Vieira-McConico prediction and pick.

Rodolfo Vieira (11-4) has gone 6-4 since joining the UFC roster in 2019. He’s alternated wins and losses and split his last four fights at 2-2, coming back following head-kick knockout against Bo Nickal last November and hoping to redeem himself as the betting favorite. Vieira stands six feet tall with a 73-inch reach.

Eric McConico (10-4-1) is 1-2 inside the UFC since debuting in 2025, losing his most recent bout to Baisangur Susurkaev at UFC 322. While he’s already been knocked out twice in three appearances, his style makes for an exciting fight that could see him pull out an underdog win. McConico stands six feel tall with a 77-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 116 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 116 Odds: Rodolfo Vieira-Eric McConico Odds

Rodolfo Vieira: -278

Eric McConico: +225

Over 2.5 rounds: -125

Under 2.5 rounds: -105

Why Rodolfo Vieira Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Bo Nickal – KO (head kick, R3)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 9 SUB

Rodolfo Vieira took a massive chance in signing to fight Bo Nickal for his last bout, clearly out-matched on the feet as Nickal displayed some of his striking chops during that outing. He’s taken significant time to return from the knockout loss and should be coming back healthy and ready to cash in as the favorite expected to win this fight.

Vieira has always been known for his world-class jiu jitsu resume, posting back-to-back arm triangle victories prior to his last three fights. If he’s able to find top position on the ground, Vieira is almost always able to lock his opponent down and attempt a number of submissions while proving his ability to finish the fight as well. Watch for his guillotine to be a threat as well, but the arm triangle has been his go-to move when he’s able to overpower an opponent from side control or half guard.

Still, every round begins on the feet and Vieira will have to keep his head moving if he plans on closing the distance and grabbing a hold of McConico. While Vieira’s grappling on the ground is some of the best in the world, he only lands 21% of his 2.7 takedowns per fight, so his pure wrestling and takedown variability is something he’s constantly working to improve.

Why Eric McConico Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Baisangur Susurkaev – KO (right hook, R3)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Eric McConico was tasked with another tough opponent in Baisangur Susurkaev, getting caught with a flush right hook in the third round that ultimately ended the fight. He showed great resiliency and grit in his three-round war against Cody Brundage, but his first loss came to a similar right hook as well. Improving defense and remaining calm in the pocket will be paramount to his success throughout the early stages of this fight.

McConico was still able to land a number of big shots on his last opponent, namely a solid elbow that stunned Susurkaev and changed the tide in the fight. He’s certainly shown flashes of mature striking, but his 46% striking defense will likely need to improve if he wants to string together wins and remain intact while doing so.

McConico does have the reach advantage in this matchup and is certainly the more fluid striker on the feet. He’s able to string together boxing combinations whereas Vieira has more of a tendency to strike in violent bursts while using his jab to keep distance in the interim. McConico certainly has the more varied striking skill set and should look to get creative against his opponent on the feet.

Final Rodolfo Vieira-Eric McConico Prediction & Pick

Rodolfo Vieira comes into this fight the significant betting favorite thanks to his edge in experience and massive gap in the grappling. If he’s able at any point to notch a clean takedown and land on top of McConico, he should be in a great spot for his arm triangle and ending this fight early.

However, Vieira’s 21% takedown accuracy opposite McConico’s 64% takedown defense could become an issue as we’ve seen Vieira struggled to bring opponents down, especially later on in the fight. If McConico can keep this fight standing, he could have a small edge on the feet and land the cleaner combos while damaging Vieira.

For our final prediction, we’re going to side with Rodolfo Vieira to get the win thanks to his control on the ground. He should be able to win the first two rounds while making the third competitive, enough to notch him a win on the scorecards if he doesn’t find the arm triangle choke before that.

Final Rodolfo Vieira-Eric McConico Prediction & Pick: Rodolfo Vieira (-278); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-125)

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