Nebraska basketball’s fatal flaw that will cost it in Big Ten conference title race

Despite losing three of its last four games to begin February, Nebraska is still on track for its best year in program history during the 2025-2026 college basketball season. Fred Hoiberg’s run has been one of the best in the sport of the last decade, but the Cornhuskers are trending in the wrong direction as the Big Ten Tournament approaches.

Nebraska began the season without one of its biggest stars in recent history, with fan favorite guard Keisei Tominaga exhausting his NCAA eligibility. They entered the 2025-2026 season with an underwhelming roster, leading to their being projected as the No. 14 team in the Big Ten preseason media poll.

Three months into the season, the projections look foolish. Nebraska looked like arguably the best team in college basketball before its current skid, allowing it to reach as high as No. 5 in the AP poll. Hoiberg’s team began the year by winning its first 20 games, including massive takedowns of No. 9 Michigan State, No. 13 Illinois, Creighton, Wisconsin and Indiana.

Nebraska has already broken multiple program records in 2025-2026, including the longest win streak to begin a season and breaching the AP Top 10 for the first time since 1966. The Huskers have done almost everything except finish the season on a high note, which they will aim to do in March.

In a season that began with his 200th career win as a head coach, Hoiberg has turned Nebraska into a Big Ten and national title contender in a way nobody saw coming in the preseason. But the success has led to new expectations, which will lead to more disappointment in the Big Ten Tournament.

Nebraska has struggled to begin February

Nebraska has been humming all year, but it is sputtering at the wrong time. A 1-3 stretch in February is never a good sign for a championship-contending team, even if all three losses are to top-15 programs.

Nebraska’s early wins over Illinois and Michigan State prove it can beat the best teams in the country; it has just been a victim of bad timing. They were unfortunately forced to play without Rienk Mast and Braden Frager for their biggest spotlight of the season, a road game against No. 3 Michigan, which they lost by just three points.

Both players returned in the following game, a rematch with Illinois, but Mast was visibly compromised. While Frager returned to form and led the team with 20 points in the nine-point loss, Mast, who spent multiple days in the hospital due to severe dehydration, could only muster five points, four rebounds and four assists in 26 minutes. The fifth-year Dutchman clearly returned too quickly, and the Huskers struggled to handle the Illini’s size without him at full strength.

Nebraska was lucky to get six days off before its next game, which evidently benefited Mast, who totaled 45 points in two games against Rutgers and Purdue. However, a fully healthy Cornhuskers squad still fell to the Boilermakers at home to make them just 1-3 since Jan. 27.

Perhaps Nebraska would have lost to Michigan and Illinois with Frager and Mast at full strength, but regardless, some of its early-season fortune seems to have caught up with it. The Cornhuskers’ three losses also exposed their biggest weakness, which has nothing to do with their health.

Nebraska’s lack of size will hurt it in the Big Ten Tournament

On paper, Nebraska thrives in all areas but one. The Cornhuskers do not excel in the paint on either end of the court, a persistent issue in each of their first three losses.

Nebraska is efficient when it gets inside. Its 59 percent two-point field goal percentage ranks 16th in the country. The issue is that those opportunities come at a premium.

The Cornhuskers’ 51.1 percent three-point rate is the 11th-highest in the country, as 33 of their 79.8 points per game come from behind the arc. Nebraska also attempts just 15.9 free throws per game, ranking 349th, and is among the worst in the country at creating second-chance opportunities.

On the other end, the Huskers’ size issues show up on the glass, where they rank 151st in total rebounding and 150th in opponent offensive rebounds. Michigan, Illinois and Purdue all slaughtered Nebraska on the glass, including the Boilermakers torturing Fred Hoiberg’s team with 21 offensive rebounds.

Having a dehydrated Mast certainly affected those numbers against Michigan and Illinois, but the fifth-year forward was 100 percent healthy when Purdue secured a 53-37 rebounding edge over his team.

Even when shorthanded, Nebraska was able to slow opponents down and force them into difficult shots. Its inability to create second-chance opportunities, coupled with its tendency to allow them on the other end, has been the difference thus far.

If Nebraska is going to win its first Big Ten Tournament in 2026, it will have to face some combination of Michigan, Illinois and Purdue again. While competitive in each of those losses, the Huskers’ undermanned frontcourt has been visibly fatigued from battling three of the best and biggest teams in the country in a two-week span. Winning the conference will require facing them all in the same week.

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