March Madness: 5 Final Four dark horse picks for your bracket

Here’s a March Madness fact that will probably surprise you: Every single Final Four but one since 2012 has featured at least one team seeded No. 5 or worse. Every Final Four but two has included a team seeded seventh or worse.

The major exception, of course, was a year ago when all four No. 1 seeds made it to San Antonio.

Still, since 2011, a grand total of 13 teams seeded seventh or worse have crashed the season’s final weekend. That’s wild.

Getting back to “normal” for this year’s tournament wouldn’t be having another chalky Final Four, it would be having two or three top seeds and one or two teams that virtually no one had winning four games in their bracket.

With that being the case, let’s look at five “dark horse” teams that you should consider picking to win more games in your bracket than you initially feel comfortable with.

Wisconsin (5-seed, West Region)

If you told me that a non-top 4 seed was going to win a region in this tournament, my mind would immediately go to Wisconsin.

The Badgers have already proven they’re capable of beating the best of the best this season. They handed Michigan its first loss of the season (in Ann Arbor), beat Illinois and Purdue on the road in front of sold out crowds, and hammered Michigan State by 21 at home.

Wisconsin has the offense to play with any team in the country, and when they’re hitting threes — as they were in each of the four wins listed above — they’re a top eight team in the sport. They also have a star guard in Nick Boyd who knows what it takes to reach the Final Four, something he did when he was at Florida Atlantic back in 2023.

Bucky has less than ideal potential second and third round matchups against Arkansas and Arizona, respectively, but if they can navigate those tests (or if someone else can take care of the Hogs or Cats themselves), the bottom half of the West Region is primed for chaos.

UCLA (7-seed, East Region)

Two months ago, the Bruins were a 12-6 team that didn’t look like a lock to even make the NCAA Tournament. Suddenly, they’ve won six of their last eight, with three of those wins coming against top 10 opponents (Illinois, Nebraska and Michigan State).

The biggest difference? Point guard Donovan Dent is playing like the guy who was arguably the most coveted floor general in the transfer portal last spring.

Dent exited in the first half with a calf strain and didn’t play again in UCLA’s 73-66 loss to Purdue in Saturday’s Big Ten Tournament semifinal. He was reportedly held out for the remainder of the game out of an abundance of caution and is good to go for the Big Dance.

Also reportedly good to go is leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau, who missed the Purdue game entirely after suffering a knee injury the day before in UCLA’s win over Michigan State. Bruins head coach Mick Cronin said Bilodeau could have played against the Boilermakers, but he recognized that the NCAA Tournament games were more important.

“Next week is more important,” Cronin said. “Tyler could have played. Donnie could have played. They’d have been playing hurt but there’s no point. I wouldn’t have played them in a regular season game. I try to take care of guys.”

With Dent and Bilodeau good to go, UCLA feels like a live shot in the bottom half of the East Region. They’re a favorite over UCF in round one, and then will likely face a second-seeded UConn team in round two that looks a lot more vulnerable now than it did a month ago.

Don’t let the Bruins get hot.

St. John’s (5-seed, East Region)

This one doesn’t require that much explanation. It’s March, it’s Rick Pitino, and it’s a team that’s been beaten once since Jan. 3 and just rolled to a Big East Tournament championship.

It’s completely understandable to wonder if St. John’s post-calendar flip turnaround has been the product of another Pitino coaching masterclass or a very down Big East Conference. Assume it’s the latter at your own risk.

Georgia (8-seed, Midwest Region)

An 8-seed toppling a 1 in the second round is one of those freak occurrences that, when it happens, sends 98 percent of brackets into complete chaos. If you want to call your shot and try to outsmart the madness, Georgia is a team that deserves a look.

And even if you can’t bring yourself to pull the trigger on that one, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Dawgs can take care of business against a more-hyped Saint Louis team in round one.

Mike White’s team has quietly been playing some of the best basketball in the country over the last month. They ended the regular season with five wins in their last six games, a stretch that included dubs over Alabama, Kentucky and Texas, and a lone single-digit loss at Vanderbilt.

Heading into Thursday, Jeremiah Wilkinson has potential day one standout star written all over him.

Louisville (6-seed, East Region)

The Cardinals have been one of the more underwhelming preseason top 15 teams in the country, but there are reasons to believe they could live up to their early season hype and string together a few wins over the next couple of weeks.

The predictive metrics still believe in Pat Kelsey’s team. Like, a lot.

Toss in the fact that star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr., a likely top 10 NBA Draft pick, has missed the past three weeks with a back injury but could return for the Big Dance, and there are reasons to gamble on the Cards playing past the first weekend.

The big issue with Louisville for most of this season has been that they’ve hammered all the teams they were supposed to hammer but have come up woefully short against the best teams on their schedule. Sometimes March can be about bucking narratives.