Derrick Lewis vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta prediction, odds, pick for UFC 324

We’re back with another betting prediction and pick for the UFC 324 Main Card as we take a look at this upcoming bout in the Heavyweight Division. No. 8-ranked Derrick Lewis will take on the rising No. 5 Waldo Cortes-Acosta in what should be a can’t-miss banger! Check our UFC odds series for the Lewis-Cortes Acosta prediction and pick.

Derrick Lewis (29-12) has gone 20-10 since his legendary UFC run began in 2014. He’s added two more knockout wins over Tallison Teixeira and Rodrigo Nascimento in back-to-back bouts heading into this one, hoping to take out one of the more hyped prospects currently in the division. Lewis stands 6-foot-3 with a 79-inch reach.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (16-2) has gone 9-2 since entering the UFC in 2022. He’s riding back-to-back performance bonuses with wins over Ante Delija and Shamil Gaziev, but he may have his toughest opponent to-date as he faces the UFC’s knockout king. Cortes-Acrosta stands 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 324 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 324 Odds: Derrick Lewis-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Odds

Derrick Lewis: +260

Waldo Cortes-Acosta: -325

Over 1.5 rounds: -160

Under 1.5 rounds: +124

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Why Derrick Lewis Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Tallison Teixeira – TKO (left hook, R1)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 21 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Derrick Lewis turned back the clock once again with an electric first-round knockout in his last fight against a rising prospect in Tallison Teixeira. Lewis has felt slighted at the lack of competition and continues to take out up-and-coming fighters in knockout fashion. It’s been the case with his last couple of camps, but Derrick Lewis claims he’s in the best shape of his career ahead of this fight thanks to the changes made to his diet and training.

Known for his knockouts, Lewis is a master at gauging striking distance when lunging forward. His long reach allows him to swing over the top of opponents, usually landing sooner rather than later. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a very defensively sound boxer and will make it difficult to land clean punches. Lewis will have to be both patient and measured, otherwise risking to get hit on the counter attack.

Lewis has also shown a recent willingness to threaten level changes and he’s constantly working on his jiu jitsu behind the scenes. It will be interesting to see what shape he comes into this fight with the updates to his training camp, but we should see and even more improved version of Lewis as a striker.

Why Waldo Cortes-Acosta Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Shamiel Gaziev – KO (right hook, R1)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

It didn’t take long before Waldo Cortes-Acosta landed a clean right hook to drop Gaziev in his last fight, proving once again why he may have the best boxing hands in the Heavyweight Division. Not only is he crisp and defensively-sound with his striking, but his footwork and movement have greatly improved since seeing different looks from different styles of opponents. He’ll have to deal with the most dangerous knockout artist in the sport, so the defensive efforts will have to be near perfect with little room for error.

Cortes-Acosta has face similar knockout punches such as Robelis Despaigne and Ryan Spann over his last few fights, offering solid counter boxing and extending both opponents past the first round. If he’s able to avoid any significant damage and extend this fight into the later rounds, he could be met with a fatigued Lewis that he can expose with his boxing.

Ultimately, Waldo Cortes-Acosta will have to play things safe through the opening stages of this fight and pick his shots carefully when closing the distance against Lewis. His chin has been durable in the past, but this isn’t a situation where he takes a chance against another durable fighter in Lewis.

Final Derrick Lewis-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction & Pick

This fight has all the makings of a classic as both fighters are feel to be at the top of their game. Derrick Lewis, riding back-to-back wins, had all the confidence following an improved training camp against a rather inexperience fighter compared to himself.

Cortes-Acosta, on the other hand, will have to pass this test in order to enter the title conversation, likely serving as the toughest fight of his career. He’s dealt with similar styles in the past, but his technique will have to be perfect against Lewis.

While Cortes-Acosta is the rightful favorite, this line should be a bit closer and given the unpredictable nature of a heavyweight fight, Lewis seems to be too big of an underdog to not take a chance on him. Furthermore, we’ll roll with the over as he finds the knockout late in this one.

Final Derrick Lewis-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction & Pick: Derrick Lewis (+260); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-160)

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