Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills odds, predictions, and betting tips – Bills draw another stout defence

This Saturday, the No. 1-seeded Denver Broncos in the AFC are hosting the No. 6-seeded Buffalo Bills. The Bills are coming off a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, while the Broncos had a Wild Card round bye. 

These teams met in the playoffs last year, and the Bills won 31-7. 

Let’s check out this Divisional Round edition of the NFL in more detail below.

Broncos vs Bills best bets

• R.J. Harvey under 54.5 rushing yards – 17/20 with BetMGM
• James Cook under 76.5 rushing yards – 22/25 with BetMGM
• Evan Engram under 21.5 receiving yards – 22/25 with BetMGM

The Bills are coming off a massive win in the Wild Card round over the Jaguars, 27-24. It took until almost the final minute of the game, but the Bills scored a go-ahead touchdown on a quarterback sneak by Josh Allen and on the ensuing drive, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw a pass to wide receiver Jakobi Meyers that went off his hands and was intercepted. 

The Bills’ Achilles heel is their run defence. They’re allowing 137.2 rushing yards per game (28th). Conversely, they have a fantastic pass defence, allowing just 159.6 passing yards per game (second). On the road, they surrender only 147.7 passing yards per game. 

As for the Broncos, they had a Wild Card round bye. The last time we saw them, they handled the Los Angeles Chargers’ backups with ease in Week 18. Defensively, the Broncos lead the league in pressures with 292 and are second in run defence, allowing just 91.1 rushing yards per outing. 

Broncos vs Bills preview

After toppling the Jaguars, the Bills are also in line to win this game. 

Yes, the Broncos have nearly as good a run defence as the Jaguars and generate more pressure, but I don’t trust the Broncos’ offence. 

They’re 14th in the NFL in points per game (23.6) and are averaging just 19.7 per outing over their last three.

Not only that, but the Broncos are 18th or worse in the average number of points scored in the first, second, and third quarters. 

When it comes down to it, I trust Allen far more than Bo Nix. 

The Broncos won 14 games this season, and 11 of them were by one score. 

Broncos vs Bills tips

Find the latest odds for the Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills courtesy of BetMGM. Odds are subject to change.

With the spread labelled with a “0,” this means it’s essentially a “pick ‘em.” That makes sense; the Broncos are at home and have an excellent defence, while their offence is a bit average.

On the other hand, the Bills have a weak run defence but a great pass defence, and arguably the best quarterback in the NFL in Allen.

R.J. Harvey under 54.5 rushing yards

This season, Harvey has 146 carries for 540 yards (3.7 yards per carry) and seven rushing touchdowns. 

He’s finished with 53 yards or fewer in 12 games and in each of his last three. He’s simply not an efficient running back. Yes, the Bills’ run defence is bad, but Harvey hasn’t topped 4.4 yards per carry in any game where he’s gotten double-digit carries. 

Furthermore, Harvey has only gotten 36 of his 146 carries when the Broncos are trailing.

Tip R.J. Harvey to have 54 rushing yards or fewer against the Bills at 17/20 with BetMGM

James Cook under 76.5 rushing yards

Cook ran for just 46 yards on 15 carries last week, and now, he draws another difficult run defence. 

The Broncos allow just 71.8 rushing yards per game to running backs. Only one player has run for 77 yards or more against them this season, which was Jonathan Taylor in Week 2 with 165 yards on 25 carries. 

The next closest was Josh Jacobs in Week 15 with 73 yards.

Back James Cook to have 76 rushing yards or fewer against the Broncos at 22/25 with BetMGM

Evan Engram under 21.5 receiving yards

Engram is facing a Bills’ defence that’s allowing just 28.5 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, which is the fewest per game. 

He’s finished with 21 yards or fewer in seven of 16 games this season and he’s third on the team in target share at only 13%. 

His target share isn’t high, and the Bills shut down tight ends. 

I’ll lean under. 

Tip Evan Engram to have 21 receiving yards or fewer against the Bills at 22/25 with BetMGM

Broncos vs Bills injury report

Below are the key injuries to report ahead of the action.

Denver Broncos 

• Out: Brandon Jones (safety) – pectoral; Drew Sanders (linebacker) – foot; J.K. Dobbins (running back) – foot; Luke Wattenberg (centre) – shoulder; Matt Peart (offensive tackle) – knee. 
• Questionable: Dre Greenlaw (linebacker) – hamstring.
• Doubtful: N/A

Buffalo Bills

• Out: Ed Oliver (defensive tackle) – biceps/knee; Jordan Phillips (defensive tackle) – ankle; Gabe Davis (wide receiver) – knee; Joshua Palmer (wide receiver) – ankle; Tyler Bass (kicker) – left hip/groin; Landon Jackson (defensive end) – knee; Dorian Strong (cornerback) – neck; Jordan Poyer (safety) – hamstring; Taylor Rapp (safety) – knee; Tyrell Shavers (wide receiver) – knee.
• Questionable: Dalton Kincaid (tight end) – knee; Shaq Thompson (linebacker) – neck; Matt Milano (linebacker) – illness; Greg Rousseau (defensive end) – back; Terrel Bernard (linebacker) – calf; A.J. Epensa (defensive end) – neck; Matt Prater (kicker) – quad, Damar Hamlin (safety) – pectoral; Curtis Samuel (wide receiver) – elbow; Maxwell Hairston (cornerback) – ankle; Ty Johnson (running back) – ankle. 
• Doubtful: N/A

Broncos vs Bills game info

• Date: Saturday 17th January
• Time: 9:30pm GMT
• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
• Where to watch: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports NFL

About the author

Richard Janvrin

Richard Janvrin brings nearly a decade of experience covering sports, sports betting, and everything iGaming. Richard received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism/English from the University of New Hampshire. Throughout his career, Richard has written for sites like Bleacher Report, Forbes, The Game Day, WSN, Gambling.com, and many more.

Find him on Twitter: @RichardJanvrin

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