Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca predictions and betting tips – Eagles to avenge league phase loss?

Crystal Palace advanced to the last 16 of the Conference League with a 3-1 aggregate victory over Zrinjski Mostar in the knockout phase play-offs. Next up is a last-16 tie against AEK Larnaca.

The Cypriot side won at Selhurst Park in the league phase of this competition. Can they repeat the feat on Thursday, or will Palace prove too strong?

• Crystal Palace with a -1.5 Asian handicap – 5/7 with 247Bet
• Under 2.5 goals – 5/4 with Betfred
• Ismaila Sarr to score any time – 5/4 with bet365

Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca odds

Find the latest Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca predictions

In both the Champions League and the Europa League, the favourites to win the competition finished in the top eight of the league phase.

That is not the case in the Conference League. Crystal Palace could only manage a 10th-place finish in the 36-team table, forcing them into the knockout phase play-offs. Despite that, the bookies consider them the likeliest winner of the competition.

Two results before Christmas cost them. One was a 2-1 away defeat by Strasbourg, in which Palace led 1-0 and then spurned several golden opportunities to increase their advantage.

More damaging, though, was a 1-0 loss to AEK Larnaca at Selhurst Park. Palace dominated possession that night and racked up an xG of 1.76 compared to just 0.2 for their opponents.

Yet Oliver Glasner’s side were undone by their profligacy in front of goal – only one of their 15 shots was on target – and a defensive error from Jaydee Canvot, who gave the ball away in a dangerous area to allow Riad Bajic to score the only goal of the game.

That result went a long way to helping Larnaca into the top eight, while it left Palace with too much work to do in their pursuit of the same goal

The Eagles were not entirely convincing in the play-offs. A 1-1 draw with Zrinjski Mostar away from home left the tie in the balance, but Palace took care of business back in London, triumphing 2-0.

They will now be looking to avenge that aforementioned loss to Larnaca when the two teams meet again on Thursday.

The stakes are higher this time around. There is still a second leg to come in this last-16 tie, but defeat at home would leave Palace in a difficult position.

After a turbulent winter in which Glasner came close to leaving the club when he was openly critical of his superiors at Selhurst, the noise around Palace has quietened down of late.

A 3-1 victory over Tottenham Hotspur last week moved them onto 38 points in the Premier League, leaving them on the brink of securing survival.

That means the Eagles are free to dedicate their full attention to the Conference League for the remainder of the season.

Glasner has already confirmed he will be seeking pastures new this summer, but he will be determined to add another piece of silverware to Palace’s collection before he departs.

Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca betting tips

Crystal Palace will welcome AEK Larnaca back to Selhurst Park in the Conference League.

Palace can make amends

Crystal Palace huffed and puffed in their last meeting with AEK Larnaca without creating an abundance of clear-cut chances.

It was not the only time they have struggled against low defensive blocks in the Conference League, the FA Cup or even the Premier League this campaign.

Palace have improved against such opposition more recently, though, as they have grown more accustomed to facing opponents who are happy to leave them the ball.

The Eagles are still at their best when they are able to play a more reactive brand of football. But even if they are not entirely comfortable with the pattern of Thursday’s game, they should have enough quality to triumph by more than a one-goal margin.

Back Crystal Palace with a -1.5 Asian handicap at 5/7 with 247Bet

Cagey encounter possible

If asked to predict the most likely scoreline on Thursday, we would go for a 2-0 Crystal Palace win.

If that does come to pass, our first wager would be successful and so would our second: under 2.5 goals.

It is worth adding this one to your betslip even if you are not convinced by our 2-0 forecast. Given the difficulties Palace have encountered against teams like AEK Larnaca this term, a low-scoring game is probable.

With a second leg still to come, Larnaca will not go hell for leather in pursuit of an equaliser if they fall behind. It is hard to see this match ending 3-2 or 4-3.

Go for under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Betfred

Sarr can find net again

Marc Guehi was Crystal Palace’s standout performer in the first half of 2025/26, but Ismaila Sarr is now the favourite to win the club’s Player of the Year award.

Sarr is Palace’s top scorer with 13 goals in all competitions, five of which have come in his last eight appearances.

The Senegal international thrives when there is space to run into, so AEK Larnaca will look to deny him that.

But Sarr is a clever forward and he knows how to get into scoring positions in the final third. He can continue his fine form on Thursday.

Choose Ismaila Sarr to score any time at 5/4 with bet365

Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca predicted lineups

• Crystal Palace expected lineup: Henderson; Richards, Lacroix, Canvot; Munoz, Kamada, Wharton, Mitchell; Sarr, Strand Larsen, Guessand.
• AEK Larnaca expected lineup: Alomerovic; Ekpolo, Milicevic, Saborit, Garcia; Pons, Ledes, Rohden; Miramon, Bajic, Ivanovic. 

Where to watch Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca

• Location: Selhurst Park, London, England.
• Date and time: Thursday 12th March, 8pm.
• How to watch: TNT Sports 2.

More Conference League predictions

We have plenty more Conference League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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