Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal predictions and betting tips – Gunners still dreaming of glorious season

Apr 29, 2026 - 06:30

Optimism has been in short supply at the Emirates Stadium of late, but Arsenal are top of the Premier League and two victorious ties away from being crowned European champions for the first time ever.

Atletico Madrid stand in their way on the continent. Who will triumph in the first leg of this semi-final in the Spanish capital?

Atletico Madrid to win – 9/4 with bet365
Under 2.5 goals – 4/6 with bet365
Alexander Sorloth to score any time – 7/4 with bet365

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal head to head overview

Date: Wednesday 29th April.
Kick-off: 8pm.
Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain.
Where to watch: TNT Sports 1.
Referee: TBC.
VAR: Yes.
Last meeting: 21st October 2025; Arsenal 4-0 Atletico Madrid.
Last 5 matches: Atletico Madrid – 1 win; Arsenal – 2 wins; Draws – 2.
Favourite to win: Arsenal.

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal predicted lineups

Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak; Molina, Pubill, Le Normand, Ruggeri; Simeone, Llorente, Koke, Baena; Griezmann, Sorloth.
Arsenal expected lineup: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Rice; Madueke, Odegaard, Eze; Gyokeres.

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal predictions

There has been ample doom and gloom around Arsenal in recent weeks, so it is worth taking stock of where the club finds itself.

True, the 2-0 defeat by Manchester City in the EFL Cup final last month was a blow, so too Arsenal’s subsequent elimination from the FA Cup at the hands of Southampton. With those two losses, the Gunners’ quadruple and then treble dreams were crushed.

Yet Mikel Arteta’s men are very much alive in the two most important competitions of all.

A 1-0 triumph over Newcastle United on Saturday was not entirely convincing, but it moved Arsenal back to the top of the Premier League. Win their last four games and there is a good chance the north Londoners will be champions at home.

Meanwhile, Arsenal are two successful ties away from being crowned kings of the continent for the first time in their history.

Again, they did not show the best version of themselves in the 1-0 aggregate defeat of Sporting CP in the last eight. But Arsenal got the job done and that is the most important thing at this stage of the campaign.

Atletico Madrid stand between Arsenal and a first Champions League final appearance since Arsene Wenger’s side lost to Barcelona in 2006.

Goals are likely to be in shorter supply in this tie than in the PSG vs Bayern Munich clash, the first leg of which is scheduled for Tuesday. But this will be a fascinating semi-final in its own way.

Atletico got the better of Barcelona over two legs in the quarter-finals, surviving a scare in the second match to win 3-2 on aggregate.

Like Arsenal, Atletico have never won the Champions League before. That means one of these two teams will have a shot at historic glory on May 30.

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal betting tips

Atletico Madrid host Arsenal in the first leg of this intriguing Champions League semi-final.

Home advantage key?

Atletico Madrid were beaten 2-1 by Barcelona in the second leg of their quarter-final. It was their first home loss in the Champions League knockout phase since 1997.

Because Diego Simeone’s side were 2-0 victors at the Camp Nou the previous week, it arguably does not really count as a true defeat.

Either way, the statistic illustrates how tough it is to beat them on their own patch in a do-or-die scenario in Europe.

For the most part, Arsenal have not played particularly well of late. Atletico can draw first blood in this semi-final.

Back Atletico Madrid to win at 9/4 with bet365

Goals will not flow

The cliches about Simeone’s side being conservative and defence-minded no longer stand up to scrutiny.

These days, Atletico Madrid are better going forward than they are at the back, as their own manager acknowledged recently.

However, Atletico could revert to type in a high-stakes situation like this. Arsenal, for their part, do not have the ability or the desire to go hell for leather right now.

As such, goals may well be few and far between at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. In fact, one might be enough to win it.

Tip under 2.5 goals at 4/6 with bet365

Sorloth to step up?

Atletico Madrid are sweating on the fitness of Julian Alvarez for Wednesday’s encounter. The latest news out of Madrid suggests the Argentina international might not make it.

That is not ideal for Atletico, who will definitely be without Ademola Lookman, but Alexander Sorloth is an able deputy.

The former Crystal Palace man shone at the weekend, scoring twice to help Atletico beat Athletic Bilbao 3-2.

Despite often playing second fiddle to Alvarez, Sorloth needs one more goal to reach the 20-mark this term. Do not be surprised if he gets it against Arsenal.

Go for Alexander Sorloth to score any time at 7/4 with bet365

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal latest odds

Find the latest Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

More Champions League predictions

We have plenty more Champions League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

Important historical facts about Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal for betting

Atletico Madrid have reached three Champions League finals without ever lifting the trophy, which is an unwanted competition record.

Arsenal are in the semi-finals of this competition for a second successive season for the first time in the club’s history.

Atletico Madrid have dropped the most points from winning positions in La Liga this term.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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