Aston Villa vs Liverpool predictions and betting tips – Straight shoot-out for Champions League

May 15, 2026 - 07:30

Aston Villa and Liverpool each need one more win to secure Champions League qualification. Both teams are well positioned to get over the line, but they could face a nervy finish to the season.

It is fifth against fourth on Friday night at Villa Park, as Unai Emery’s side host Arne Slot’s men. Which way will this one go? Here is what to expect.

Aston Villa to win – 19/10 with Spreadex
Aston Villa to score last – 21/20 with 247Bet
Ollie Watkins to score any time – 8/5 with Betway

Aston Villa vs Liverpool head to head overview

Date: Friday 15th May.
Kick-off: 8pm.
Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham, England.
Where to watch: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League.
Referee:
VAR: Yes.
Last meeting: 1st November 2025; Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa.
Last 10 matches: Aston Villa – 0 wins; Liverpool – 7 wins; Draws – 3.
Favourite to win: Liverpool.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool predicted lineups

Aston Villa expected lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Luiz, Tielemans; McGinn, Buendia, Rogers; Watkins.
Liverpool expected lineup: Mamardashvili; Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Szoboszlai, Mac Allister; Ngumoha, Wirtz, ; Isak.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool predictions

With just over a week of the season remaining, neither Aston Villa nor Liverpool have booked their place in the 2026/27 Champions League.

A top-five finish in the Premier League would earn either side a seat at Europe’s top table next term. Both teams have looked secure among the division’s leading quintet over the last few weeks, yet neither has yet done enough to get over the line.

Liverpool in third and Aston Villa in fourth are level on 59 points. Bournemouth are next on 55, followed by Brighton & Hove Albion on 54.

One point from the last six available would be enough for Liverpool or Villa to make themselves uncatchable by Brighton. But in-form Bournemouth can still reach 61 points. That means Liverpool and Villa each still need one win to guarantee their place in the top five.

There is still another route into the Champions League for Unai Emery’s side should they need it. Victory over Freiburg in the Europa League final on Wednesday would not only end the club’s 30-year trophy drought; it would also send them directly into Europe’s premier competition.

In summary, Villa will be in the Champions League if they win any of their remaining three games, and Liverpool will qualify if they triumph in either of their last two matches of the campaign.

Friday’s showdown at Villa Park is therefore a straight shoot-out for a place in the Champions League. The winner will be home and hosed, while the loser’s fate will be decided in the last week of the season.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool betting tips

Aston Villa entertain Liverpool in their final home game of the 2025/26 campaign.

Villa to secure spot

If this game were taking place on Sunday, Unai Emery would probably opt to shuffle his pack ahead of the Europa League final.

But with five days to recover between the Liverpool game and the Istanbul showpiece, we expect Aston Villa to name a strong side on Friday.

With a tricky trip to Manchester City scheduled for the final day, Villa will be keen to triumph over Liverpool to book their place in the Champions League as early as possible.

The Reds have been mediocre at best in recent weeks, while they remain without some of their regular starters in forward areas. Villa look overpriced at these odds.

Back Aston Villa to win at 19/10 with Spreadex

Villa to have final say

Liverpool took the lead against Chelsea last weekend, only to allow their out-of-form opponents back into the game.

There was a smattering of boos from the Anfield crowd when the final whistle sounded, a reaction which has no doubt increased the pressure on Slot.

Liverpool have now conceded the final goal in six of their last nine matches. This is a team which has often finished games poorly in recent weeks.

With that in mind, it would not be surprising if Aston Villa struck the last goal of Friday’s fixture.

Tip Aston Villa to score last at 21/20 with 247Bet

Will Watkins increase tally?

Ollie Watkins has had his ups and downs this term, but the England international appears to have rediscovered his form for the run-in.

That is good news not only for Aston Villa but also for Thomas Tuchel, who could be persuaded to take Watkins to the World Cup after all.

A decisive goal against Liverpool would do his chances of a call-up no harm whatsoever.

Watkins has scored in back-to-back games and found the back of the net eight times in his last 10 appearances in all competitions. His confidence has returned – and that is bad news for Liverpool.

Go for Ollie Watkins to score any time at 8/5 with Betway

Aston Villa vs Liverpool latest odds

Find the latest Aston Villa vs Liverpool betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

More Premier League predictions

We have plenty more Premier League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

Important historical facts about Aston Villa and Liverpool for betting

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 11 games against Aston Villa in all competitions. Both teams have scored in each of the last six editions of this fixture at Villa Park.

Aston Villa are striving to finish above Liverpool for the first time since 2009/10.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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