The New York Yankees will start Gerrit Cole in Game 1 of the American League Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday, choosing him over Carlos Rodon. Cole will face Tampa Bay right-hander Drew Rasmussen.

The decision was influenced heavily by the environment at Tropicana Field, where the Yankees believe Cole's arsenal performs better.

“We like Gerrit in the Trop,” pitching coach Matt Blake said.

Manager Aaron Boone made a comparable remark during Friday's news conference, but he stopped short of explaining what he meant.

Since joining New York in 2020, Cole's four-seam fastball has averaged 19.3 inches of induced vertical break at Tropicana Field compared with 17.7 inches at Yankee Stadium. That difference has resulted in a 35.2% whiff rate on his fastball in Tampa compared with 25.8% at home.

Cole has also produced better career results in domed environments. Opponents have a .568 OPS against him in domes compared with .665 outdoors. Rodon's corresponding marks are .655 and .676.

The lack of wind inside Tropicana Field is another factor. Cole's fastball had only 15.4 inches of vertical break at Wrigley Field this season, where a crosswind affected the pitch. In July, his fastball at Tropicana Field had nearly two more inches of vertical break than his 2026 mark in New York.

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Still, the Rays' offensive splits against right- and left-handed pitching make the choice less straightforward. Against right-handers, Tampa Bay had a .752 OPS, fourth-best in MLB, compared with a .679 OPS against lefties, which ranked 25th.

Those numbers would appear to favor Rodon, who enters the series after an outstanding September, going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in four starts. He limited hitters to a .141 batting average and .430 OPS while allowing two home runs. On Sept. 22 against the Rays, he worked eight scoreless innings, surrendered three hits, struck out eight and issued no walks while generating 15 swinging strikes.

However, Rodon owns a 6.92 ERA across six postseason starts with New York. Cole, meanwhile, has a 2.93 ERA in 12 postseason starts for the Yankees.

During September, Cole allowed nine home runs while opponents hit .265 with a .839 OPS against him. His final regular-season outing came versus Tampa Bay on Sept. 23, when he allowed three hits, three walks and two earned runs, including one homer, over 5.2 innings with eight strikeouts. New York won that game 9-2.

The Yankees also plan to use all four of their primary starters during the ALDS despite needing only three because of scheduled off days. That makes the Game 1 decision particularly focused on how Cole's stuff matches the Rays and Tropicana Field.